Fantasy Baseball 2019: 5 Late Sources for Batting Average
By Bill Pivetz
With more batters selling out for power, it’s becoming harder to find batting average for your fantasy baseball team. Here are five sources to draft late.
Year after year, the home run and strikeout totals get higher and higher while batting average continues to drop. This makes it hard for fantasy baseball owners to find high-contact hitters. While the first couple of rounds of hitters will post a .285 average, those drafted after will bring your team’s average down.
Looking at the numbers over the last six seasons, the numbers are favoring power hitters and high-strikeout pitchers. The batting averages listed are a whole league average while the strikeout and home run numbers are averaged based per team.
2012: .255/1212 K/164 HR
2013: .253/1224 K/155 HR
2014: .251/1248 K/140 HR
2015: .254/1248 K/164 HR
2016: .255/1299 K/187 HR
2017: .255/1337 K/204 HR
2018: .248/1374 K/186 HR
The strikeouts went up exponentially while the average hovered around .253 for the first five seasons before dropping under .250 last year. The increase in home runs in 2016 can be traced to 2015 when MLB changed the composition of the balls, as reported by The Washington Post in 2018.
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What this ultimately comes down to is that with a league batting average under .250, finding contact hitters to help you in that category is becoming harder, especially in AL/NL-only leagues. If you haven’t drafted yet, here are five batters that can help you in batting average.
Again, like my other “late sources” piece, these players will have ADPs over 200.0. These are supposed to be guys not normally drafted and people are forgetting when the draft is over.
The Rockies are still going to use Ian Desmond in center field with Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl flanking him. This leaves Tapia without a starting job. Desmond hit .236 last year and Dahl isn’t the poster child for being healthy, so Tapia could get close to 300 at-bats.
Tapia had limited playing time last season, recording just 25 at-bats. He had 160 at-bats in 2018, hitting .288 in the process. I think Bud Black will manage both Dahl and Desmond’s playing time throughout the season. There is also the possibility of Blackmon getting traded.
If Tapia reaches 250 at-bats, he should hit .279 in the process. That could help offset batters like Wil Myers and their .250 average.
Duffy is dealing with a hamstring injury and his status for Opening Day is questionable. The Rays have a deep infield with Joey Wendle, Willy Adames and recently-extended Brandon Lowe. Duffy played the majority of games at third base, where Wendle is projected to play.
When Duffy is ready, I see Wendle going back to second and Lowe goes to the bench. As long as Duffy doesn’t miss significant time, he should be in line for 400 at-bats. Duffy hit .294 last year in 503 at-bats. I think .278 is a good projection for his shortened season.
Duffy has some speed but the hamstring could slow him down. We may see 10 steals this season, which helps because speed is not widely available.
The season hasn’t even started and the New York Mets are dealing with injuries. Outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is recovering from heel surgeries and is likely to miss the first half. Jed Lowrie has a capsule strain in his left knee and Todd Frazier has a strained oblique. Both are questionable for Opening Day.
As a result of these three injuries, the Mets have a few spots to fill. McNeil is one of the beneficiaries of these injuries. Roster Resource projects him as the starting left fielder while Dominic Smith fills in at first base and J.D Davis takes over third base.
McNeil hit .329 in 225 at-bats last season. I think he’ll find his way into the Mets lineup, regardless of position, and rack up 450 at-bats. He has 10-home run power to match up with his .277 average. I like McNeil late for his flexibility and good contact.
Bell is the only player on this list that doesn’t have to worry about playing time. He is the Pittsburgh Pirates starting first baseman with 530 projected at-bats. He did drop in power last year but saw a slight increase in batting average.
Bell hit .261 with 12 home runs and 62 RBIs over 501 at-bats. Over a full season, Bell should hit close to 20 home runs with a .265 average. It’s the lowest projected batting average of the five players listed but it’s almost 20 points higher than the league average. I’ll take a 20/.265 hitter with a 251 ADP.
Even with trading away Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, the Los Angeles Dodgers still have a lot of outfielders. Players like Chris Taylor and Max Muncy give the Dodgers a lot of movement in their defensive alignment.
Regardless, AJ Pollock is not the healthiest player. There are also rumors of Joc Pederson being traded, which could open up a permanent spot for Verdugo. In 77 at-bats, he hit .260.
Because of the roster flexibility, I think Verdugo gets at least 300 at-bats with a .270 average. Over 162 games, that equates to just under two at-bats per game. He doesn’t contribute much else, so make sure you have enough depth for the other fantasy baseball stats.
dark. Next. Fantasy Baseball 2019: 5 Job Battles to Watch
Finding high-contact hitters late in drafts is difficult. More batters are focusing on launch angle and harder contact. There are still those hitters that can poke a ball through the gap or drop a floater. Anyway they get on base is a help to your batting average. These five hitters should help your fantasy baseball team.