NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday, March 22 – Studs and Grizzlies

Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

After a series of high-scoring NBA DFS slates we came back a bit towards the norm last night where winning GPP scores sat below 340 fantasy points while the cash line in GPP’s hovered right around 310 – a similar range to the 3-3.5x we have seen most of the season with a bit more condensed scoring as a result of some clear chalk developing. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andre Drummond were the only two players to go over 50 fantasy points but really they were more prerequisites to your build than difference makers as they were 85% and 75% owned in GPP’s – hence the condensed scoring!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

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As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Friday Slate Overview:

Well everyone, you can all breathe a sigh of relief – with the news that Tim Hardaway Jr. will miss the rest of the NBA season, you can be assured that there will be no other THJ mentions in Picks and Pivots for the rest of the year. Bankrolls everywhere rejoice – get well THJ, we will see you next year buddy!

Much like we have seen over the last week, last night we saw winning GPP rosters roll out a stars and scrubs approach – simply plugging in the chalk value and moving on. Last night, the winning GPP score in the $25 Pick and Roll had the following players – Troy Brown (88%) and Tyreke Evans (60%) which allowed them to easily shoehorn in Karl Anthony Towns and Andre Drummond along with Kemba Walker who sat at 49% ownership.

The point is, the easy value is just getting plugged in and slate after slate the truth is – it is working.

So tonight, welcome to Memphis Grizzlies chalk value night – are you excited? Get excited!

With basically the entire Memphis roster looking to be sidelined tonight – this is setting up for a spot where rosters will start with 2-3 or maybe even more Grizzlies punts before jamming in all the top end plays you can fit.

Last game Memphis ran an 8 man rotation with their starting five all playing 36-42 minutes in a OT game against the Rockets. In that game Mike Conley started and played 42 minutes and the big news is he has been added to the injury report with, wait for it….GENERAL SORENESS!

Yes! General soreness and load management. NBA DFS is the best.

With Conley out, it becomes really tough to ignore this team and the value they present. Delon Wright ($10.1K) and Jonas Valanciunas ($12.3K) seem priced correctly for their role in this game so instead I would simply look to the true punts – of which we have many.

Brunco Caboclo ($6.7K), Ivan Rabb ($6.8K), Tyler Dorsey ($6K) and Justin Holiday ($7.4K) in some combination will likely start alongside Wright and Jo-Val here tonight and I think mixing and matching a few of these guys is the way to approach this spot tonight. With this being the first game to tip-off tonight we should have lineup confirmation so do not hesitate to plug-in 2-3 punts with clear paths to 30+ minutes here and tonight – take your 20-22 fantasy points and just move on with your build.

NBA DFS – Build Around the Stars:

With so much value already on this slate fitting in 2-3 studs at a minimum is going to be a popular route and one that much like last night, is likely a prerequisite to cashing.

James Harden ($20.3K) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($20.3K) are the two highest priced plays on the slate and if forced to choose, I think taking the safety of The Beard tonight is the way to go. The Rockets are only 4.5 games behind the Warriors for the top seed in the West while simultaneously also only 3 games from dropping to the #8 seed so with such concentration in the standings, I think the Rockets continue to push for playoff seeding while Giannis and the Bucks are obviously fine making sure their star is healthy for the playoff run.

Harden has gone for 45, 50 and 66 fantasy points in three previous meetings with the Spurs so even though you could argue the point per dollar ceiling isn’t there, with so much value on the slate, I think you lock in Harden simply for the raw point upside.

Russell Westbrook ($19.2K) put up 66 fantasy points against Toronto just a few days ago in a OT battle and now gets to face them again without Kyle Lowry. Again, with all the value, why not just take the players with the high raw point ceiling here?

D’Angelo Russell ($15K) is the next most expensive guard and with a REVENGE game against the Lakers and his most recent run, my guess is that D-Loading is a popular play here tonight. Russell is coming off a show against the Kings where he dropped 77 fantasy points and put up 58 the game before that against the Clippers. In his previous meeting with the Lakers this season, he dropped 50 fantasy points so all things considered, the price seems a tick too low when you factor in that the Nets need every game down the stretch.

You guys all know I love me some D-Russ – and I am happy he is finally getting his due – with THJ done for the year, Russell gets his spot atop the Picks and Pivots leader board.

Paying up at F/C seems a bit more dicey as there are more question marks than paying for the star guards. Giannis if he even plays has no reason to push for major minutes while Nikola Jokic ($18K) gets to face a Knicks team in a game that could be over by halftime. Paul George ($17.6K) struggled to get only 36 fantasy points against Kawhi and Toronto last game which likely leads most to pivot to Kawhi Leonard ($16.3K) who put up 48 against OKC last game and has the benefit of no Kyle Lowry.

The wildcard here is LeBron James ($18.3K). LeBron has missed the last two games with a groin injury and the minutes ceiling has led to his ownership being consistently low slate after slate but is this a spot for us to jump on?

Consider this – LeBron has played 31, 33 and 35 minutes in his last three games and is averaging 51.8 fantasy points in those games. Now I do not expect LeBron to suit up and play 40 minutes tonight but this is one of those scenarios where we have the value to play him, if he actually plays there is no reason to think the 30-35 minutes range is out of the question and if the ownership is low, it could be a spot to be different.

My guess is most take the “savings” down to Kawhi which may leave LeBron has the under-owned stud on this slate.

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note this sample lineup is not meant to be a plug and play build and should be considered illustrative only. 

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G: James Harden

G: Russell Westbrook

G: D’Angelo Russell

F/C: LeBron James

F/C: Ivan Rabb

F/C: Bruno Caboclo

UTIL: Justin Holiday

UTIL: Tyler Dorsey

Slate Overview: Stars and Scrubs or in this case Stars and Grizzlies. Again, just reading the landscape the last week on FantasyDraft, this is the roster build that is winning every night – eating the chalk value, getting 2+ studs (also chalk) into your lineup and hoping you have the 1-2 pieces that differentiate you.

I think with how this slate is setting up, the difference between taking down a GPP and the cash line will be concentrated again as the roster builds will all likely look the same. As crazy as it sounds – putting in someone like Giannis or LeBron could be the way to be different tonight as my guess is those are the stars that get a bit over-looked.

Good luck all!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.