Is there another Kentucky Derby long shot in Sunland Derby?

Sunday’s Kentucky Derby prep is best known for Mine That Bird

The Sunland Derby (G3) has produced seven Kentucky Derby starters — and one unlikely Kentucky Derby winner, making it the most productive major prep (at least from a percentage basis) since 1997.

After finishing fourth in the 2009 edition of New Mexico’s big race, Mine That Bird made his next start in the Run for the Roses and came from last place to win by the fifth-largest margin in Kentucky Derby history, leaving Pioneer of the Nile — future sire of Triple Crown champ American Pharoah — in his wake.

The victory was so improbable that it even spawned a movie, 50 to 1, named — surprise, surprise — for Mine That Bird’s odds on Derby Day.

While this year’s Sunland Derby doesn’t figure to yield another Kentucky Derby winner paying over $100, it does feature a horse that I think could score at a price.

Here’s a horse-by-horse look at the field:

MUCHO GUSTO: Trainer Bob Baffert sends out this guy after his previously undefeated stable stars — Juvenile Champ Game Winner and Improbable — both failed at odds-on in their respective divisions of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park last weekend.

And for a second-stringer, this colt has first-rate talent.

After going wire-to-wire in each of his first two races, the son of Mucho Macho Man set a slow pace and faded in his route debut, when he finished second to the aforementioned Improbable in the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1) on Dec. 8. But he rebounded beautifully with a resounding score in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita Park last time — and, more importantly, rallied from off the pace for the first time in his career (which will be important going forward).

He’s a deserving favorite.

Fair Odds: 2-1

ANOTHERTWISTAFATE: This Blaine Wright trainee is very intriguing. His last three late speed rations (my measurement of late energy disbursement) are spectacular; however, they were all earned on Tapeta™, a synthetic surface that tends to feature slower internal fractions.

Over the past 10 years, the average opening half-mile in the Sunland Derby is a swift 46.2 seconds (:46-1/5 in racing parlance). Yet, despite leading at every call in his three races at Golden Gate Fields, Anothertwistafate hasn’t cracked 49.05 seconds for the initial four furlongs.

So, either he’ll need to go a lot faster early on Sunday — like 14 lengths faster — or he’ll need to come from off the pace, which he hasn’t yet proven he can do. His LSRs make him a contender, but I would insist on a good price.

Fair Odds: 9-2

HUSTLE UP: The name of the game is speed for this son of Abstraction, who has led at the first call in all three of his route tries. He even showed the ability to rate last time by slowing down the pace in the Mine That Bird Stakes and holding on to win.

I’m not confident he can do it again, though.

The Todd Fincher trainee was pretty rank in the early stages of the Mine That Bird and he also faces a lot more potential early challengers this time around.

Speed is always dangerous, but I’ll take a stand against this guy at his morning line price.

Fair Odds: 8-1

WICKED INDEED: After a decent fourth-place showing in the LeComte (G3) at Fair Grounds, this dude was made the odds-on favorite in the Mine That Bird on Feb. 24 — but he couldn’t catch Hustle Up that day, despite gaining ground on the leader in the stretch. He’ll need to improve to find the winner’s circle on Sunday… but that’s out of the question.

Fair Odds: 6-1

CUTTING HUMOR: Son of First Samurai appeared to be on his way to bigger and better things after an impressive maiden score and a second behind Bourbon War, who later placed in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), in an optional claiming event on Jan. 18. However, the Todd Pletcher trainee disappointed as the favorite in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and is now a forgotten player on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

That could change this weekend, however.

Frankly, Cutting Hunmor’s performance at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 18 wasn’t that bad, as he was very wide throughout, yet made a bold move around the turn (albeit not as bold as the eventual race winner, longshot Super Steed). Although his seventh-place finish that day may be indicative of distance limitations, I’m inclined to give this colt another chance — if, as Bob Barker used to say, “the price is right.”

Fair Odds: 7-2

WALKER STALKER: I thought this guy was a live longshot in the Mine That Bird Stakes and he ran reasonably well, finishing third. Sunday’s hill is a lot steeper, though, and the New Mexico-bred gelding will need to improve considerably to visit the winner’s circle — or even hit the board.

Fair Odds: 15-1

PASAMONTE MAN: Still a maiden after three starts, a victory by this gelding on Sunday would make UC Irvine’s win over Kansas State in the NCAA Tournament look like no big deal.

Fair Odds: 20-1

COLLUSIONIST: Started his career with two off-the-pace wins at Arapahoe Park, but his speed and pace figures are terrible.

Fair Odds: 99-1

DIAMOND BLITZ: Son of Munnings is — quite literally — bred to be a sprinter. He did break his maiden going a route of ground on the grass, but that was for a $50,000 claiming tag and produced a subpar speed figure.

Given his outside draw, it’s hard to figure how the Keith Desormeaux trainee works out a winning trip on Sunday, although Desormeaux has worked magic with lightly raced 3-year-olds in the past.

Fair Odds: 20-1

EYE CLOUD: I think this guy could win… a match race with Collusionist… maybe.

Fair Odds: 20-1

Betting strategy

There are four primary win contenders in this race — Mucho Gusto, Anothertwistafate (solely on the basis of his LSRs), Wicked Indeed and Cutting Humor — and only the latter figures to be a decent overlay. Hence, I would key Cutting Humor and use the others, along with Huddle Up, in my exotic plays (exacta, trifecta, superfecta).