FanDuel MLB: How to Build Winning Lineups

FanDuel MLB: How to Build Winning Lineups

Baseball season is right around the corner and I could not be more excited! For those of you have been following me during the NBA season, you know I have a passion for playing DFS and for writing. NBA DFS is a ton of fun, but MLB DFS is by far my favorite DFS sport!

In this article, I wanted to give you look at how I build lineups for MLB DFS on FanDuel. There’s a lot of universal concepts when it comes to making MLB lineups, but playing MLB DFS on FanDuel and Draftkings is very different in many ways so this article is going to be specific to those FanDuel builds for both cash games and GPPs.

It’s going to sound odd, but the first thing you have to be willing to do in order to win in MLB DFS is lose sometimes. Variance rears its ugly head on a nightly basis and the unexpected happens often. If you like going against the grain and not following the herd, then playing tournaments in MLB DFS is going to be enjoyable and hopefully profitable more often than not.

Even the best players have no floors in MLB DFS. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper can go 0-5 on any given night even in the best matchups. Jacob DeGrom and Gerrit Cole can get lit up by a terrible offense. It’s going to be about minimizing risk in cash games on a nightly basis and leveraging ownership in GPPs.

Let’s start by talking about how to select pitchers for FanDuel MLB DFS contests.

FanDuel MLB: Start with Pitching

Getting your pitchers right on a slate is probably the most important thing you can do in building a winning FanDuel lineup. On most nights, several pitchers are likely going to be the highest scoring players unless we have a hitter hit three home runs or hit for the cycle with 10 RBI or something else very rare.

The scoring for pitchers is much different on FanDuel than it is on DraftKings. Pitchers can earn up to 10 FD points with a win (6) and a quality start (4).  A quality start is one in which a starting pitcher throws 6 innings and surrenders 3 earned runs or less.  So targeting pitchers who are heavy Vegas favorites and who can pitch deep into ballgames is really important in FanDuel’s format.

FanDuel is a one pitcher site, so you better get that one pitcher right! In cash games, it makes sense to pay up for an elite starting pitcher, while in GPPs you can target pitchers from all salary tiers and try to find a guy who has a great game at lower ownership. I’ll touch more on this in the GPP vs. Cash Games section.

Strikeouts are worth 3 FD points each, and pitchers also get 3 FD points for each inning pitched. Therefore we want pitchers who can both rack up Ks and pitch deep into games. There are no penalties for hits or walks allowed, only earned runs (-3).

When looking for statistics for pitchers, forget about traditional metrics like ERA and wins.  You’ll see that any reputable MLB DFS writer is going to be using some advanced metrics like SIERA, wOBA allowed, swinging strike rate, and others. I’ll be defining all those stats and more in my first few articles for FantasyCPR this season.

FanDuel MLB: Stacking Bats

One question I get from DFS players all the time is “do I need to stack batters from the same team in cash and/or GPPs.” The answer is not a simple yes or no, but rather “it depends on the situation and on the slate.” I try not to make hard and fast rules for DFS as there are usually a number of different paths to a successful lineup and a winning night.

Stacking up consecutive hitters (or sometimes non-consecutive hitters) from the same lineup is usually a strategy that is reserved for GPPs but that doesn’t mean you can’t use more than one batter from an offense that is projected to score a lot of runs. The danger with running a full 3 or 4-man stack in cash is that you’re “putting a lot of your eggs in one basket” so to speak. If that offense is cold or the opposing pitcher is feeling it then you’re lineup might end up with multiple goose eggs.

I prefer to use 1-2 bats from the same team in cash games, but on smaller slates, I do think a 3 or 4-man stack can be viable. That’s why I don’t like to say “never stack in cash.” I also think you can create hybrid lineups in MLB that have some correlated plays in them to give them a ceiling and some chalky plays in them to make sure there is a decent floor, too.

When you are building your stacks, please consider that stacking 1-4 on a popular team is likely going to be a very chalky stack. One of my favorite things to do to be contrarian is to stack the bottom of the order (say the Braves 5-6-7-8 last season) or do a “wraparound stack” and play the 8 or 9 hole hitter with the top of the lineup.

And stacking doesn’t have to be consecutive batters. Let’s say we really like the left-handed hitters on Team X, but they hit in lineup spots 2, 3, 5, and 7. Well, just skip the 4th and 6th batters in the lineup and hope that the lefties are the ones who do most of the damage. Once in a while, you’ll get burned and the player missing from your stack will be the one who hits the 3-run home run. But when you get it right, you’ll be the one without a zero in your stack with the guy you skip strikes out 3 times and the other hitters all produce for you.

The Utility slot makes fitting your favorite stacks a lot easier on FanDuel, and that’s something I’ll revisit when we get to that section. FanDuel also does not force you to play a catcher, so not many players do on a nightly basis. Using your C/1B slot on a catcher will make your lineup unique.

FanDuel MLB: Cash Games vs. GPPs

So how is roster construction different for playing cash games vs. GPP tournaments on FanDuel? Well, like any other DFS sport the chalkier players with the best matchups are going to be popular options in cash games, while certain players and pitchers on bad teams or that have difficult matchups will be riskier GPP options.

Cash Games

The first thing you want to do is find the safest pitchers for your cash game roster. We’re looking for an ace with a good matchup as our starter and don’t be afraid to spend up for the most expensive pitcher if they are indeed the safest choice on the slate. You can always find some cheap bats to use as punts in cash games, but you’re going to need Max Scherzer in your lineup if he goes 8 innings and strikes out 12 hitters. The majority of the field in your double-ups will have him and most of your head-to-head opponents will, too. The bottom line is pay for an elite pitcher in cash games on most nights

As we talked about in the stacking section, you do not have to stack hitters in cash games. If you absolutely love a particular team that you can go ahead and do it, but personally I like to look for some really strong individual matchups and try to locate hitters with some solid platoon splits against the handedness of the opposing pitcher. If a hitter is hot, that’s a bonus, too. Are they playing in a hitting friendly environment? You see where I am going with this – there are a number of criteria you can apply to each hitter and I’m pretty picky when trying to discern who my top cash game hitters are going to be each night.

GPPs

In GPPs, just about anything goes. And that’s not lazy analysis, it’s just the reality of MLB DFS. If you want to use a 5k pitcher and stack all the Coors bats you can fit – go for it! Remember, pitchers really don’t have floors (no baseball players really do, actually) so your cheap pitcher could easily outscore or at least come close to scoring as much as some of the pricier options.

In GPPs, my “sweet spot” for targeting pitchers is usually the 7-9k range. The most popular pitchers are usually front of the rotation arms that are 10k+ and then we get some really cheap guys 7k or lower who will be popular so that players can fit in their favorite high priced stacks. Some of the best pitching performances I had at low ownership last season came from players who were priced in this tier.

I’m always looking for correlation in GPPs. So, I love stacking hitters most of the time and then trying to headhunt home runs with one-off plays. That’s really the formula that has worked the best for me over the years and I would recommend it.

You simply can’t be afraid of fading the chalk or leveraging the chalk. If you think a certain pitcher who’s projected to be highly owned that night is in a bad spot – stack against him. You’ll instantly gain leverage on a large percentage of the field.  The same approach can be taken with a pitcher who seems like he will be picked on by other players – use him.  Don’t ever be afraid to be different and take the players you really like, regardless of who others in the industry are telling you to play.

FanDuel MLB: Utility Slot

The utility slot on FanDuel is something that makes roster construction unique on that site. Adding this extra hitter makes it really fun, but also challenging at times because it has increased the scoring in FanDuel MLB on a nightly basis.

In cash games, I would recommend targeting an extra first baseman, third baseman, or outfielder, positions that usually have a good number of affordable hitters with some pop in their bats. Remember, what we really want on a nightly basis is home runs, so if your utility bat pops off for a dinger, you’re going to be in better shape than others.

For GPPs, you can use that utility spot in a number of ways. It allows you to fill out a second full 4-man stack if you want to run two 4-man stacks from two different teams. It also makes for a great “one-off” spot, meaning a player from a team that you didn’t stack but has a great individual matchup.

If you want to be contrarian, use it to roster another second basemen or shortstop.  Sometimes there may two elite options at a position like that and by using both of those players in the same lineup you’re going to do something that most other players didn’t do on that night.

The bottom is line is be creative in your roster contruction. The utility spot opens up the possiblity to a whole bunch of different combinations on a nightly basis.

FanDuel MLB: Summary

Remember, baseball is a game with a ton of variance on a nightly basis. There will be nights when the chalky hitters and pitchers perform well and other nights when the chalk crashes and burns while players that nearly no one rostered have huge games. You have to be willing to embrace this variance and understand that there are going to be good nights and bad nights in MLB. The goal, of course, is come up with a process to identify the best low-risk and high-risk plays on a nightly basis so more of those nights are good than bad.

Like with other DFS sports, I would recommend practicing responsible bankroll management. Contest selection is also an important thing to consider. The general rule of thumb in the industry is allocated 80% of your nightly bankroll in cash games and around 20% in GPPs. And as far as contests go, I always tend to favor single entry tournaments and smaller field tournaments over the larger big money tournaments.

If you love statistics then MLB DFS is going to be a lot of fun. There are so many different stats to consider on a daily basis. For a stats nerd like me, MLB DFS is a ton of fun and I love nothing more than to do some deep dives into a site like FanGraphs in order to try to find an edge for that slate.

Good luck this season and make sure you stay right here at FantasyCPR for all your MLB DFS content! We’re going to have a really great variety of articles covering every aspect of MLB DFS across multiple platforms!