DraftKings NBA Picks March 25: What can Lillard do for you?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 25: What can Lillard do for you?
There are only four games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments tonight, but there is more star power tonight than there has been on many of the recent slates. It’s going to be plenty difficult to build lineups tonight.
I redid all of my afternoon lines after Giannis and Lowry were ruled in. Apparently I did it wrong. The night line was really strong however, putting up 320 DraftKings points. The winning score was still 350.75, but I did get into the top 50.
patnan3022 built with LeBron and LMA, but the rest of my team was about the same. His use of Paul over Hield made the difference from my lineup. His value play of Theis over Ish Smith made a little bit of a difference.
By popular demand, I am switching back to the old format. As always, if you have suggestions to improve the article (besides making better picks), let me know!
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($10,900): Westbrook has topped 60 in four of the last five games, but he hasn’t hit that against Memphis in either game this year. Still, it’s not like Russ has been bad against the Grizzlies. He does have 111.25 DraftKings points in the two meetings. That puts him a shade over 5x value, which leaves him as a suitable building block. We all know what the upside is with Westbrook as well.
Damian Lillard ($9,900): Lillard had a pedestrian game against the Nets the first time around this year, but this time is going to be different. McCollum is still out, so Lillard is going to carry the team again. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in all four games with C.J. out with a ceiling game of 65.25 DraftKings points. Lillard probably wont hit the ceiling tonight, but he should produce as much or more than Westbrook for $1,000 less.
Honorable Mention:
Mike Conley ($7,500): Conley has been an elite scorer for the Grizzlies lately, putting up at least 20 real points in seven straight games. He is the offense right now. Despite Conley’s poor game against the Thunder earlier this year, I kind of like him here. Conley’s usage is through the roof lately, which makes his price an acceptable risk.
Ricky Rubio ($5,400): Conley was ineffective in his only game against the Thunder this year, so I have no issue ignoring him against Westbrook. Rubio has only played 53 minutes against the Suns this year, but has managed 55 DraftKings points. This should be about the minutes and production that Rubio gets tonight, so he is a solid value play. However, Rubio has little to no upside.
Dark Horse:
Raul Neto ($3,100): You couldn’t pay me to use a Suns point guard against Utah. Not only are the all underwhelming to begin with, but the Jazz are one of the top three in least fantasy points allowed to the position this year. I would use Utah’s backup over any of the Suns’ three options, and feel really good about it. Neto has no upside, but he has hit at least 5x value in seven of the last eight games with 13 DraftKings points against the Hawks being the only outlier.
My pick: Lillard(PG); Lillard(PG)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
D’Angelo Russell ($8,600): Russell was well below average against the Blazers earlier this year. His 4-16 mark from the floor contributed heavily to that. Tonight Russell wont have to deal with C.J. McCollum, so I’m okay with using him here. Russell will carry the Nets and is capable of big games, but his floor is lower than most at his price tier.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,200): I can definitely see using Booker here, but honestly, I’m not sure either one are a good play. Mitchell only has 68 DraftKings points against the Suns this year, but he has only played 65 minutes. Neither game has been close, so I’m not sure how many minutes the Utah starters will actually play. They are limiting Rubio’s minutes anyway, and will do the same with Mitchell and Gobert if they can get away with it.
Honorable Mention:
Delon Wright ($5,300): Wright continues to produce at a solid clip whether Conley is on the floor or not. The absence of Avery Bradley and C.J. Miles has given Wright more of a role in the offense, and he has taken advantage. Wright has cleared 30 DraftKings points in both of the last two games. He should here as well.
Dennis Schroder ($5,300): Schroder has been a beast in both games against Memphis this year, racking up 74.75 DraftKings points in 71 minutes. That’s 7x value! The Grizzlies have had trouble containing both Schroder and Westbrook, so I have no issue with playing both of them together. Schroder has given the Thunder some offense from the off guard slot this year.
Dark Horses:
Seth Curry ($3,800): Curry has 76.25 DraftKings points over the last three games, so he’s a strong value pick with McCollum out again. We are going to need lots of value on this slate with so many stars to choose from. The mid range isn’t really the way to go tonight. There is enough value in the lower tiers to justify spending up for stars. Curry is one of those strong values.
Troy Daniels ($3,300): The Suns have three healthy natural point guards on their roster, so it speaks volumes that they still run Troy Daniels for half the game. Daniels has been hitting value of the last three games or so. He’s the only Suns guard I would even consider, and even then, I’m not all that excited about it.
My pick: Schroder(SG), Curry(G); Curry(SG)
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Paul George ($9,600): I could see using George and Westbrook, but the issue here is that it’s been all or nothing for the Grizzlies lately. When the Grizzlies play well, they are still a force. If they start cold, it has turned into a blowout really quickly. In lieu of a PG-Westbrook stack, I think I favor the Lillard-George duo to limit exposure to this game. George has been solid against Memphis this year, but not enough for me to say he’s a must play.
Honorable Mention:
Jimmy Butler ($7,400): Butler is functioning as the primary piece of the offense in the fourth quarter lately. He seems to have found his place in this team right now. Butler has cleared 5x value in four of the last five games. This matchup against Orlando is not a good one though, so temper your expectations. The Magic have shut Butler down so far this year.
Joe Ingles ($6,000): Ingles has managed to stabilize his production recently, mostly because the Utah offense has stabilized around him. Ingles has at least 28 DraftKings points in 10 of the last 11 games. That kind of consistency plays well in any game format on a short slate like this.
Dark Horses:
Terrence Ross ($5,200): The only reason I will even consider Ross is because of the struggles of Fournier. We have seen Ross go off from time to time, but let’s be real. That’s probably not happening against the Sixers. Still, Ross has 53 DraftKings points in two games against Philly this year. That’s a solid return for someone with upside.
Mikal Bridges ($5,100): Bridges is still playing huge minutes for the Suns, and he is starting to produce on a regular level. I don’t love his matchup with Utah, but I still think that Bridges plays when this game gets out of hand as well. Bridges should get about a quarter’s worth of work against the Utah second string, so I can see some upside here.
Chandler Parsons ($3,900): Parsons burned many, including myself, on Saturday, but it’s bound to happen from time to time. Conley was out and the Grizzlies get hammered, so it was mostly just Memphis electing not to push him in garbage time. Since Conley is playing, I’m comfortable going back to Parsons for a value play.
My pick: George(SF), Bridges(F), Parsons(UTIL); Ingles(G), Parsons(SF)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Tobias Harris ($7,200): Harris isn’t a guy I’ve gone out of my way to play while he’s in Philly, but this game could be an exception. Harris dominated Orlando in his only game against them this season, erupting for 50.5 DraftKings points. There is clear upside here, but the floor is oh so low. It just depends on how much of a risk you are willing to take.
Aaron Gordon ($7,000): The place to attack the Sixers is still at power forward, so this is a good matchup for Gordon. Gordon has averaged 42.1 DraftKings points in his three games against the Sixers this season. Until the disaster against Memphis on Friday, Gordon had over 30 DraftKings points in 12 straight games. Can he start a new streak?
Honorable Mention:
Derrick Favors ($5,500): Favors has 66.5 DraftKings points in just 48 minutes against the Suns this year. Favors is mostly hit and miss for fantasy purposes, but he’s a strong play when the matchup is right. It certainly seems to be here.
Jerami Grant ($5,300): I’m nervous about playing Grant here because of what the Memphis front did to Aaron Gordon even in a blowout over the weekend. Grant has 57.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies so far this year, so he has been solid against them so far. I just don’t see a lot of upside to this play, but his minutes are safer than Favors.
Dark Horse:
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,300): This isn’t a great matchup for Aminu due to all the bodies that the Nets are going to throw at him, but Aminu is already a strong rebounder. Add in the extra upside that comes from him being more involved in the offense with McCollum out, and we have a suitable place to deploy Aminu.
My pick: Favors(PF); Gordon(PF), Aminu(F)
DraftKings NBA Centers:
Best Bets:
Joel Embiid ($10,400): Embiid has 111.75 DraftKings points in two meetings with Orlando this year, so as usual, you get what you pay for with Embiid. If he’s in the game, he’s going to dominate. That makes Embiid a strong place to start your build.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,200): Vucevic has averaged a hefty 51.4 DraftKings points per game in three contests against Philly. Of course, the game without Embiid was better than the other two, but Vucevic has held his own with Embiid. Enough so that I’m okay dropping down here for lower ownership. The $1,200 could come in handy as well.
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Honorable Mention:
Rudy Gobert ($8,000): Gobert has racked up 94.5 DraftKings points in just 65 minutes against Phoenix this year. I would expect Gobert to see around that many minutes again tonight, but he has proven that he can do a lot against this team in a little time. If you don’t want to pay for Embiid, Gobert is a strong consolation prize.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100): Is this a rerun? We’ve seen this before. Jonas get going on a strong run, then inexplicably disappears. The Grizzles aren’t gaining anything by sitting Jonas. They need to see what they have in him. Valanciunas has 165.75 DraftKings points in the last three games. He is on fire right now, but when will the collapse happen?
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,900): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS! As the late night hammer. Remember JaVale McGee on Friday? Nurkic may not play the minutes that McGee did, but he’s going to put up some numbers here.
Dark Horses:
Jarrett Allen ($5,500): Allen is a constant 5x value with enough upside to consider as a value play. His defense is lacking, but Allen is a solid offensive player. Thankfully DraftKings doesn’t dock for defense. That leaves Allen as a decent value play here.
Richaun Holmes ($3,900): Holmes has at least 22 DraftKings points in four straight games while not playing more than 20 minutes in any of those. Holmes is a points per minute monster, he just doesn’t see many minutes. As usual, Holmes is a decent punt, just be aware that he’s going to have trouble cracking 20 against Utah.
My pick: Nurkic(C); Gobert(C), Nurkic(UTIL)
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