WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play groups and predictions
Group 5: Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Matt Wallace and Lucas Bjerregaard
Justin Thomas should have an easy time making it past this group. Thomas hasn’t won yet this year, but he does have five top-10s including two third-place finishes and a runner-up. He made the semifinals here last year, the first time he made it past the group stage. If there is a glimmer of optimism for the other three players, it’s that Thomas hasn’t been inside the top-25 in his last two starts.
None of the other players in this group have much of a Match Play record to speak of. Keegan Bradley is 1-7-2 in his career at this event and hasn’t won a match since 2012. Both Matt Wallace and Lucas Bjerregaard, meanwhile, are making their tournament debut.
Group 6: Bryson DeChambeau, Marc Leishman, Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Russell Knox
This group may be the most wide open of any in this year’s tournament. Bryson DeChambeau is the highest-ranked player, but he’s only making his Match Play debut. Aussie Marc Leishman, meanwhile, has twice made it to the round of 16. He’s also already won on the PGA Tour this year and has four top-10 finishes in nine starts. Leishman is the pick to upset DeChambeau and advance to the final stage.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat is another player to watch out for in this group. The Thai pro reached the quarterfinals last year and boasts a 6-3 career record in this event. He also plays his best in the biggest tournaments: his two top-10s this year have come in the WGC-HSBC Champions and the WGC-Mexico Championship. Russell Knox, meanwhile, has never made out past the group stage in two previous tries.
Group 7: Francesco Molinari, Webb Simpson, Thorbjorn Olesen and Satoshi Kodaira
You don’t expect one half of Ryder Cup heroes “Moliwood” to go out in the group stage, do you? Italian Francesco Molinari went 5-0 in the Ryder Cup with Tommy Fleetwood last year to lead Team Europe to a resounding victory against the Americans. Molinari, however, only has a 4-11 career record in this event and has never advanced out of his group. He’s coming off a final round comeback victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational three weeks ago, and has three PGA Tour wins since last year’s Match Play, including his first major at the Open Championship.
All three of his opponents also don’t have much of a record in this event. Webb Simpson has never won his group in three attempts, while Satoshi Kodaira lost all three matches last year in his tournament debut. Dane Thorbjorn Olesen is playing for the first time since 2016, where he also failed to get out of his group.
Group 8: Jon Rahm, Matt Kuchar, J.B. Holmes and Si Woo Kim
Unlike the previous group, every member of this group can say they’ve advanced to the final stage in their careers. Whoever advances past this foursome will likely come down to either Jon Rahm or Matt Kuchar. Rahm made the final in 2017 before losing to Dustin Johnson but also failed to win a match a year ago. Kuchar, meanwhile, has won his group twice while also winning the event in 2013 and finishing third in 2011.
Rahm and Kuchar will try to win their matches in different ways. Rahm is second on tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee this season. Kuchar, on the other hand, leads in greens in regulation and is fifth in driving accuracy. Kuchar also ranks 16th in birdie average, meaning anyone trying to beat him this week will need a low round. Kuchar has already won twice on the PGA Tour this year, and he’s the one to beat in this foursome.
J.B. Holmes made the final stage in 2015 but has been knocked out in the group stage in two prior appearances in Austin. Korean Si Woo Kim won his group last year before losing in the round of 16.