2019 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Predictions

I just got done with watching 48 games in four days. It’s always an exhilarating experience. Except this year it really wasn’t. There were some good games, but for just the second time ever, all of the top 12 seeds advanced. 1-3 in each region all made it through. Those who picked the chalky brackets are sitting pretty, and us upset minded people are seething.

2019 NCAA Tournament: East Region

(1)Duke vs. (4)Virginia Tech:

Duke is the lucky team to be here. They were millimeters away from losing to UCF and former Duke player Johnny Dawkins. UCF outplayed Duke for most of that game, and deserved the win. They also showed Duke’s weaknesses. Duke couldn’t stop Aubrey Dawkins, and scored just three bench points.

Liberty hung with Virginia Tech for a half, but that was about all they could muster. Justin Robinson did come off the bench again, but he played 29 minutes and scored 13 points. The Hokies shut down Scottie James and tried to make the rest of the team beat them. Liberty gave it their best, cut came up short.

Virginia Tech beat Duke about a month ago. Duke was without Zion Williamson. Virginia Tech was without Robinson. Which is more important to the team? Probably Williamson since Duke was average without him. That’s the problem with Duke though. Duke survived a close call. Can they survive another? I have my doubts.

Pick: Virginia Tech

(2)Michigan State vs. (3)LSU:

Just as with the first meeting, the Spartans destroyed Minnesota, much to the surprise of no one. LSU escaped against a pretty tough Maryland team up front. Much as in the first round game, the LSU guards made the difference.

I think this is going to be another close one. LSU is a better rounded team. Both teams have very deep benches, which will keep the teams close the entire game. Who’s going to win out here, the Michigan State front or the LSU guards? The thing with Michigan State is that they aren’t always invincible in March anymore. This LSU team just seems more hungry.

Pick: LSU

2019 NCAA Tournament: West Region

(1)Gonzaga vs. (4)Florida State:

Gonzaga handled Baylor without much of a problem. They only won by 12, but the game was never really that close. Florida State blasted tournament darlings Ja Morant and Murray State out of the building before that game even began.

This is a rematch of last year’s Sweet 16 West region. Again, Florida is about as far from West as you can get, so the crowd in Anaheim is going to be a lot of Bulldog Nation. Still, Florida State has looked impressive in their two games.

The issue with that is that Florida State only had to concentrate on stopping one player from each of the first two teams. Gonzaga is one of the better rounded teams in the tournament. Florida State does match up with Gonzaga where it counts though: in the frontcourt. The Gonzaga guards will have to play better than they have to win this game, all while stopping Terance Mann.

Pick: Florida State

(2)Michigan vs. (3)Texas A&M:

Texas Tech made short work of an impressive Buffalo team. Of course, stopping CJ Massinburg is going to be a lot different than stopping the whole Michigan team. Michigan also made short work of Florida in typical Michigan fashion. They dominated this game defensively. Almost every shot Florida took was contested.

This is going to be one of the better games of the weekend. Both teams made the Elite Eight last year. Michigan went all the way to the Championship game from the same West region with mostly the same team. Texas Tech lost in the East regional final to eventual champion Villanova. If it means anything, Texas Tech stayed closer than Michigan did.

This game is going to be a defensive battle. Michigan has well rounded scoring, but Jordan Poole is the main guy. Texas Tech has Jarrett Culver and a deep bench. I kind of think that Texas Tech finds some rotation that will work against Michigan. All Red Raiders starters were in double figures against Buffalo. They will have a much tougher time against Michigan, but I tend to think they get it done.

Pick: Texas Tech

2019 NCAA Tournament: South Region

(1)Virginia vs. (12)Oregon:

Virginia only won by 12 points, but they still dominated the game against Oklahoma. I’m glad that Oklahoma played a solid game, but it was clear that Virginia was just the better team. There’s no shame in that. The Sooners needed to play a great game, but only came up with a good one.

Oregon trailed the Anteaters of UC Irvine at the half, but ran off with this in the second half. The Oregon team is a dangerous team. They score almost at will. That will be tested against one of the better defensive teams around.

Oregon is the hottest team in the tournament right now. We all know how dangerous hot teams can be. Virginia, after a historic fail last year, hasn’t exactly set this tournament on fire. They were down 14 to Gardner-Webb in the first round, and didn’t blow out an Oklahoma team that they were capable of blowing out. I’ll go with the more exciting team. Both Wisconsin and Irvine held leads against the Ducks until they just exploded. Can Virginia stop that inevitable explosion?

Pick: Oregon

(2)Tennessee vs. (3)Purdue:

Tennessee blew a 25 point lead to Iowa before finally pulling it out in overtime. Even that wasn’t a very exciting game. UCF-Duke was the only game that really got that heart rate up. A hot Purdue team destroyed last year’s champion Villanova. That’s the kind of destruction I didn’t think Purdue was capable of.

Tennessee blew a massive lead to Purdue’s conference mate Iowa. Purdue is an even better, and taller, team that Iowa. Purdue is lethal from beyond the arc, the place where Iowa staged that monumental comeback. I’ve made a couple of different picks than in my original brackets, and this is going to be another one of those. Iowa formed the blueprint on how to take out Tennessee. Purdue is more than capable of executing it.

Pick: Purdue

2019 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region

(1)North Carolina vs. (5)Auburn:

North Carolina has looked the part of a one seed. They held off the hot shooting of Iona to take that by double digits, then blew out Pac 12 regular season champion Washington.

Auburn survived a meltdown against New Mexico State, but it never came to that against Kansas. The Kansas defense couldn’t stop Auburn at all. Charles Barkley is in Tiger heaven right now, and even he believes they can topple the Tarheels.

I love you Charles, but I just can’t agree. North Carolina’s defense can stop the hot Auburn offense. The Tigers took a huge step forward here, but the run ends here.

Pick: North Carolina

(2)Kentucky vs. (3)Houston:

Kentucky’s defense smothered the Wofford shooters, particularly Fletcher Magee. Nick Hoover did everything he could, but Wofford needed someone else to step up and hit a shot. They couldn’t.

Houston systematically dismantled Ohio State. This game wasn’t close after the first ten minutes. Houston is a deep team, which will only help against Kentucky, who runs eight deep on a good day.

Kelvin Sampson treats every player as fouls to give, particularly up front. Houston has the guards to keep Kentucky in control just like Wofford did. My only question is whether Houston can score enough in the frontcourt to win this. It’s going to be a lower scoring game if Kentucky has anything to do with it, and I don’t think the Houston guards can win it by themselves. The bench scoring from Houston should make the difference.

Pick: Houston

Oregon is the only team that “doesn’t belong”, but I would argue that they have as good of a chance of making the Final Four as anyone. That’s how well they are playing right now. It’s hard to keep a hot streak going when you have a few days off, but the Ducks did it after the Pac 12 tournament. If they do again, the Ducks will become the first 12 seed to make the promised land. They always pull a first weekend upset or two, but never has a 12 seed made the ultimate jump.