2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play: PGA DraftKings Picks
2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play: PGA DraftKings Picks
Welcome back DFS Golfers, it’s time for MARCH MADNESS: PGA Edition! This week is the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. It features a field made up of the top-64 players in the world (who decide to participate).
The format of the Match Play event gives us that March Madness-type feel to it. There is a group stage with 16 groups of four, with just one golfer making it out of each group. Similar to your typical pool-play style, each player will get a chance to play everyone in their pool. From there, the best record advances.
We also see a change in the scoring on DraftKings. Points are gained by winning holes (+3 pts), halving holes (+0.75 pts), holes not played (+1.6 pts), matches won (+5 pts), and matches halved (+2 pts). There also bonuses that can help you earn points which include winning three holes in a row (+5 pts), and not losing one hole in a match (+7.5 pts). The only way to lose points is by losing a hole, which subtracts 0.75.
This will be the fourth straight year that the Austin Country Club will host the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. It is a Par-71 that plays just over 7,100 yards. Instead of finding players who fit the courses skill set, analyze the group they are in.
There hasn’t been a single golfer to make it to the Round of 16, or “Sweet 16”, in each of the past three years at the Austin Country Club. In fact, the previous two winners (prior to Bubba Watson last season) failed to even win a match in their title defense. We see many different outcomes in this Match Play event, making it one of the more difficult weeks in terms of DFS.
2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play:
Group 1: Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Brendan Grace, and Chez Reavie.
This group is arguably the most top-heavy group of them all featuring Dustin Johnson, and Hideki Matsuyama. It is difficult to pay up over $11,000 for a golfer in a Match Play event like this. Dustin Johnson is the second most expensive player on DraftKings at $11,400. After winning the event in 2017, DJ went 0-3 in the group stage last season. There are no guarantees.
On Bovada, Matsuyama has the second best odds of anyone outside of the top-16. Priced at just $8,200 on DraftKings, Matsuyama is the best value in this group, even being paired with DJ.
Brendan Grace did not look too good last week missing the cut at Valspar. His price tag of $7,400 just does not do it for me. Chez Reavie rounds this group out and is not cheap enough in a group like this ($6,700).
The Pick: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200) or fade.
Group 2: Justin Rose, Gary Woodland, Eddie Pepperell, and Emiliano Grillo.
Justin Rose hasn’t played in the WGC Dell Match Play since 2016, the first year Austin Country Club played host to the event. He failed to make it out of the group stage and has never had tons of success in Match Play. Gary Woodland is coming off of a week where he disappointed many Fantasy Golfers, so don’t expect him to be very popular.
However, this group features one of my favorite plays on the slate: Eddie Pepperell. Making his debut in the WGC Dell Match Play, Pepperell makes a great value play priced just below $7,000. The last we saw of him was the T3 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Pepperell’s Bovada odds currently have him at 70-1, which is tied for the second best of all players in the third tier.
The Pick: Eddie Pepperell ($6,900)
2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play:
Group 3: Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren, Haotong Li, and Tom Lewis.
Before missing the WGC Dell Match Play last season due to injury, Brooks Koepka had made it out of his group the two previous years. In 2016, he made it into the Elite Eight, but was one and done in 2017. As one of the six players priced above $10,000, I think he draws the most favorable group.
Alex Noren has been strong in Match Play the past two years. He had a third place finish here last year and made it into the Elite Eight in 2016. Noren is very affordable priced down at $7,000, but is not the same player we have seen over the past two years.
The Pick: Brooks Koepka ($10,300)
Group 4: Rory McIlroy, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Justin Harding, and Luke List.
Having Justin Harding in this group, being a name not many are familiar with, would draw the assumption that this is a weak group. Pair that with the hottest player in the world and highest priced player on DraftKings, Rory McIlroy will draw tons of ownership. Though he is the clear favorite, I’d have a hard time paying $11,700 for anyone in the WGC Dell Match Play event.
Look for Matthew Fitzpatrick to come out of Group 4. He has been right in the mix of the group stage all three years at Austin Country Club, but has yet to make it to the Round of 16. Fitzpatrick is coming in with three consecutive made cuts, including a solo second at API
The Pick: Matthew Fitzpatrick (7,700) or fade.
2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play:
Group 5: Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Matt Wallace, and Lucas Bjerregaard.
The top player in Group 5, Justin Thomas, has done a little bit of everything in his attempts at Austin Country Club. Back in the first year the WGC Dell Match Play was played here, Thomas was one of just four players who went 0-3. He progressively got better, going 1-2 in 2017, and then finally finishing fourth last year.
However, it boils down to the two Englishmen in this group for me.Both Matt Wallace and Lucas Bjerregaard are playing good golf. Wallace is coming in with four straight top-35 finishes, and Bjerregaard has back to back top-30’s. It really just comes down to price, give me the $900 discount that Bjerregaard provides. He is a nice GPP play priced $200 above minimum.
The Pick: Lucas Bjerregaard ($6,200) or fade.
Group 6: Bryson DeChambeau, Marc Leishman, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, and Russell Knox.
Surprisingly, Bryson DeChambeau is making his WGC Dell Match Play debut. DeChambeau was ranked as the 64th player in the world a year ago and now finds himself comfortably inside the top-10. Being his first time, this is a good spot to fade the top tiered golfer.
Marc Leishman has made it out of his group just once in the past three years. The other two times, he was winless. Leishman is far too volatile for me to consider paying $8,800 on DraftKings. I like the chances of Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Russell Knox in this group who are both 100-1 to win the WGC Dell Match Play. Aphibarnrat made it into the Elite Eight last year.
The Pick: Russell Knox ($6,600) with a slight edge over Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($6,700)
2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play:
Group 7: Francesco Molinari, Webb Simpson, Thorbjorn Olesen, and Satoshi Kodaira.
This is arguably the weakest group of all 16. Satoshi Kodaira has the longest odds on Bovada to win the WGC Dell Match Play at 250-1, and is probably the worst player in the field. He has made the cut in just three of his past eight events, with no finish inside of the top-35. Kodiara also went 0-3 here last year. Thorbjorn Olesen, who had a strong 2018 campaign, is also struggling this season making just three of his last six cuts worldwide.
It comes down to Francesco Molinari, and Webb Simpson. These two will face off on Friday which could very well be the deciding factor of who moves on. Molinari is the superior player, and is priced as such, costing $1,000 more than Simpson.
Both players went winless in 2017, and Molinari was a half-match better than Simpson in 2018. Neither have had great success in the WGC Dell Match Play, but are strong options in a weak group. If you have the salary space remaining, go with Molinari. If not, Webb Simpson is not a bad pivot at a discount.
The Pick: Francesco Molinari ($9,300)
Group 8: Jon Rahm, Matt Kuchar, J.B. Holmes, and Si Woo Kim
Jon Rahm currently has the fourth best odds in the field to win the WGC Dell Match Play according to Bovada (16-1). Rahm is the first player priced below the $11k+ range on DraftKings priced at $10,600. Rahm was winless last season going 0-2-1 following up his solo second place finish in 2017.
This is a group that should be avoided as a whole. After Rahm is Matt Kuchar, who has made it out of the group stage in two of the past three years. The $8,100 price tag is too much. It features Si Woo Kim, who has the best odds on Bovada of all fourth tier players at 80-1. He is the only one to consider in this group as a GPP option only. There will be no easy match this week in Group 8. Proceed with caution.
The Pick: None.
2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play:
Group 9: Xander Schauffele, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Tyrrell Hatton, and Lee Westwood.
The lone American in Group 9, Xander Schauffele, does not have the easiest of paths to the round of 16. Tyrrell Hatton advanced into the round of 16 last year but is coming off of a rough week at the Valspar. Rafa Cabrera Bello made his name known at the WGC Dell Match play back in 2016 with a third place finish.
Lee Westwood, the veteran, has not made it to the round of 16 in two tries at Austin Country Club. He has not been playing much as of late and wouldn’t expect to be a threat in this group. It is very tight across the board in this group, and there is not much value. Fade Group 9 all together.
The Pick: None.
Group 10: Paul Casey, Cam Smith, Charles Howell III, and Abraham Ancer.
Coming off of the win at Valspar for the second straight year is Paul Casey. It may be difficult to make the trip to Austin after four hard rounds of golf, but it didn’t affect Casey last year. He failed to make it to the round of 16, but Casey went 2-1 before being knocked out in a playoff by Kyle Stanley.
Both Cam Smith and Charles Howell III advanced to the round of 16 last year, and now find themselves in the same group. Smith advanced to the Elite Eight while CH3 got knocked out in the round of 16 for the second year in a row.
The Pick: Cam Smith ($7,900) or fade.
2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play:
Group 11: Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Kyle Stanley, and Byeong Hun-An.
In his two attempts in the WGC Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club, Tommy Fleetwood has yet to make it out of the group stage. He did play well last year going 2-1, falling just a match short of Ian Poulter’s perfect 3-0. Fleetwoods price tag of $9,600 is not appealing in this group.
Louis Oosthuizen’s price of $7,500 is a great value coming off of a tie for second at the Valspar. He has made it out of the group stage in two of the past three years, including a runner-up back in 2016. Byeong Hun-An did not play the event last year, but made it out of the group stage back in 2016. He is also one of the top golfers in the fourth tier, making this group fairly strong. An seems underpriced at $6,300 on DraftKings and is a good pivot play.
The Pick: Louis Oosthuizen ($7,500)
Group 12: Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, and Jim Furyk.
Why does it feel like all of these players are dead even? We get a group of four players who are known for their short games and are great ball strikers. Jason Day is tied fifth in odds to win on Bovada as he has won the WGC Dell Match Play twice in the past five years. He comes into this week off of a missed cut at Valspar, where he couldn’t get anything going.
Phil Mickelson had the biggest Match Play win of 2018 in his 1 vs. 1 win over Tiger Woods. $8,000 is a very fair price for Phil, who advanced to the Elite Eight back in 2017. Of all fourth tier golfers, Jim Furyk may just be the scariest of them all. Bovada has him at 90-1 to win, which is a low number for the fourth best player in his group. Group 12 can be avoided for DraftKings purposes.
Pick: None.
2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play:
Group 13: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Brandt Snedeker, and Aaron Wise.
Tiger Woods is making his first appearance at the WGC Dell Match Play since 2013, where there was a much different format.Either way, this should not be much of a difference. Woods knows what it takes to succeed in Match Play as he has won this event three times in the past.
Compared to where we have seen Woods be priced earlier this season, $9,200 is a nice spot.
Tiger is 4/4 this year with three finishes inside the top-20. Patrick Cantlay will be the only player in this group that will stop Tiger from advancing to the round of 16. The last time Snedeker made it past the group stage was 2016. This is the debut for Aaron Wise at the WGC Dell Match Play. Wise has not been all that impressive this season making just two of his last six cuts.
The Pick: Tiger Woods ($9,200)
Group 14: Tony Finau, Ian Poulter, Kevin Kisner, and Keith Mitchell.
Where has Tony Finau been this year? It seems like all of last year we were all over him, but he has almost disappeared. However, Finau does have three consecutive top-25’s with his most recent being a T22 at THE PLAYERS Championship. He should be low owned at $9,000 on DraftKings.
The next three players in this field are all intriguing plays. First off, nobody wants to see Ian Poulter in a Match Play event. He has a long history here and is a past winner. Rounding out this group are two players priced at $7,000 or below in Kevin Kisner and Keith Mitchell. Kisner was the runner-up last year after getting dominated in the finals by Bubba Watson. The price for Mitchell is too good to pass up just $400 above the DraftKings minimum.
The Pick: Keith Mitchell ($6,400)
2019 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play:
Group 15: Bubba Watson, Jordan Spieth, Billy Horschel, and Kevin Na.
As I stated on the first slide, the defending champion of the WGC Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club has not had much success. Both Jason Day, and Dustin Johnson were winless in the group stage in their title defense. That being said, we can fade Bubba Watson who is priced at $8,900.
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I’m not sure Jordan Spieth could have found himself in a much better spot to bounce back. This is one of the weaker groups and Spieth has a real shot of coming out of the group stage, even when you account for his recent struggles. He went 2-1 in a difficult group last season falling just one shy of Patrick Reed. The price isn’t ideal, but I think Spieth is worth a long look in GPP’s. He’s got to come back eventually, right?
The Pick: Jordan Spieth ($8,700)
Group 16: Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry, and Andrew Putnam.
Priced almost identically on DraftKings, and betting odds on Bovada, Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia do not have much competition in their group. Both of them made it into the round of 16 last year but failed to advance to the Elite Eight. Reed also advanced from the group stage back in 2016.
In his two attempts at Austin Country Club, Shane Lowry has yet to even win a single match in the group stage. It’s hard to pin when Lowry is going to pop, but it doesn’t seem like Match Play is his strong suit. Andrew Putnam has missed three of his last four cuts and was dealing with an injury earlier in the year.
The Pick: Sergio Garcia ($8,500) with a slight edge over Patrick Reed ($8,600)
dark. Next. WGC Match Play Power Rankings
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