MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Opening Day 2019

MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks: Opening Day 2019

After a frigid, snow-ridden Winter (well, for me, at least), our first taste of summer is finally here with Opening Day 2019 upon us! This season for Fantasy CPR, I will be covering daily MLB Daily Fantasy stacking articles to help construct your cash and GPP rosters in MLB DFS.

Welcome to the first installment of my MLB DFS Stacks articles for the 2019 baseball season! For those of you unfamiliar with, or new to MLB DFS, stacking is going to be a trend you see night in and night out. The approach, however, is different depending on whether you are playing cash games or tournaments (GPPs).

In cash games, I personally tend to look towards 2-3 core teams to target and build around mini-stacks of 2-3 batters per team with the occasional 1-off bat or two. This will be a popular strategy in cash games, as you will tend to see the masses flock to the handful of teams with the highest IRTs (implied run totals). On top of that, the target players will typically be in the first 5 spots of the batting order, getting the most at-bats on a nightly basis and the most run potential.

In GPPs, my strategy is a bit different. While implied run total is always a good place to start a stack, it can also be a huge leverage point in tournaments if you choose to FADE the high IRTs and target some of the lower ones with the hopes of an offense popping off, knowing that baseball is a fail sport; the best players in the world succeed 1 out of every 3 at bats.

So, while the masses are attacking a Coors Field game that ends in a 4-1 score, you could leverage some lower-owned games and stack the Padres against a regressing Madison Bumgarner (foreshadowing? 😉 ) at minimal ownership and grab a handful of hits and RBIs that vault you ahead of the field. Another strategy in GPPs is to target the bottom-of-the-order hitters in the chalky stacks with most of the attention on the top. This gives you a piece of the best offenses, but not all of the pieces that the masses are chasing.

Throughout this article and the first few of the season, you will catch on to my strategy in cash stacks versus GPP stacks rather quickly. Without further ado, let’s play ball!

*All numbers are 2018 statistics unless otherwise noted

MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Primary Cash Game Stack: New York Yankees

*NOT ON DRAFTKINGS MAIN SLATE, ONLY EARLY

With an offense as potent as the Yankees, I think that it’s safe to say that this isn’t the last time you’ll be seeing them in my articles. They welcome in the 2019 season by getting the opportunity to tee off against Andrew Cashner of the Baltimore Orioles, so let’s take a look at some quick numbers that support stacking against him;

Andrew Cashner | RHP | BAL

Strikeout rate: 14.5%

HR/9: 1.47 (almost doubled his 2017 rate)

wOBA: 0.370 vs RHB / 0.361 vs LHB

SIERA: 5.33

Fly-ball %: 36.2% (up 4% from previous season)

Hard-contact %: 32.5%

As you can see above, Cashner is trending in the wrong direction, not that he was ever heading elsewhere. He gave up a higher wOBA to righties last season, but 5 more HRs to lefties, making batters on both sides viable. Below are the keys to a Yankees stack as well as their predicted spot in the batting order:

(2) Aaron Judge (FD: $4,600 / DK: $5,500)

(3) Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4,300 / DK: $5,100)

(4) Gary Sanchez (FD: $3,300 / DK: $4,300)

(6) Luke Voit (FD: $3,500 / $4,500)

Judge, Stanton and Voit all posted wOBAs north of 0.330 and ISOs over 0.210 against righties last season, while Sanchez posted an ISO of 0.196 and come in at the heart of the NYY lineup. If you want to look at some complimentary pieces, Troy Tulowitzki has remained healthy throughout Spring and should slot into the starting SS role at a cheap price tag ($2,600). Brett Gardner ($2,700) is another cheap piece that could hit atop the lineup with Aaron Hicks on the shelf.

This stack is not cheap, so looking this way in cash could deter you from locking in a top pitcher like Scherzer or Verlander, but the upside here is hard to argue with. Even if you do lock in a top-tier stud, I would recommend getting at least one piece here.

MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Secondary Cash Game Stack: Chicago Cubs

While the Yankees should garner the majority of the ownership on FanDuel and rightfully so, the Cubs are creeping up as my personal favorite stack. They head to Arlington to face off against Mike Minor, an aging lefty, in what should be the warmest game of the slate (weather wise).

Mike Minor | LHP | TEX

Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (down 8.1% from 2017)

HR/9: 1.43

wOBA: 0.307 vs RHB / 0.334 vs LHB

SIERA: 4.27 (0.91 higher than 2017)

FB%: 44.9%

Hard%: 37.9%

As you can see from the above, home runs were an achilles heel of Minor last season given his ridiculously high hard-contact and fly-ball rates. The surprise here, however, is the fact that he’s limited RHBs in 2018 to a 0.307 wOBA. Against potent righties like the Cubs, I don’t think that will matter. Below are the keys to a Cubs stack as well as their predicted spot in the batting order:

(1) Albert Almora (FD: $2,500 / DK: $3,200)

(2) Kris Bryant (FD: $3,800 / DK: $5,400)

(3) Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4,100 / $5,300)

(4) Javier Baez (FD: $3,900 / $4,800)

All four of these players have wOBAs over 0.300 against lefties, even after Anthony Rizzo experienced a bit of a down season by his standards. The play here that sticks out the most is Kris Bryant with his 0.461 wOBA and 0.349 ISO against left-handed pitchers. He’s a lock in my FanDuel lineups, as he feels a shade under-priced.

Baez is expensive, but his 0.384 wOBA and 0.269 ISO provide a heap of upside at a thin position. Almora is a prime piece of this stack if he leads off, as he provides extreme salary relief at your OF3 position for a dirt-cheap price. If you want to add a complimentary piece, Willson Contreras boasts a 0.356 wOBA and 0.196 ISO and comes in at a reasonable rate on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Primary GPP Stack: Texas Rangers

Do I feel obligated to write-up the Rangers against Jon Lester because my boss, Brian Tulloch, is the Twitterverse’s largest anti-Lester? Sure, but my goodness this could be a massive leverage spot. Lester moseys into Arlington in a very hit-or-miss spot, so let’s dive into the numbers;

Jon Lester | LHP | CHC

Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (down 4% from 2017)

HR/9: 1.19

wOBA: 0.305 vs RHB / 0.374 vs LHB

SIERA: 4.57 (up 0.50% from 2017)

FB%: 36.4% (up 4% from 2017)

Hard%: 31.9% (up 3.8% from 2017)

If there’s anything to take away from Lester’s 2018 numbers, its that it’s rather obvious that he is on the decline in his career and the age-induced regression is rearing it’s head. While the Rangers no longer have the well-known lineup of old, they have some key pieces here that should provide some salary relief as well as extreme leverage due to having L/L matchups.

(3) Elvis Andrus (FD: $2,800 / DK: $3,300)

(4) Nomar Mazara (FD: $2,700 / DK: $3,400)

(5) Joey Gallo (FD: $3,800 / DK: $4,200)

(9) Delino DeShields (FD: $2,400 / DK: $3,600)

As you can see, the above players carry some really attractive salaries. Joey Gallo may be my favorite GPP play of the entire slate. I expect him to be overlooked by 98% of players and I will gladly take the low ownership, as he holds a 0.344 wOBA and 0.331 ISO against left-handed pitchers last season. He’s my #DFSHRCall of the slate for Opening Day.

Mazara posts an impressive 0.184 ISO against lefties and Andrus boasts a 0.316 wOBA against southpaws, making them viable options. Arguably the most attractive feature of Mazara, Andrus and DeShields, however, is their speed. It’s common knowledge at this point that Jon Lester cannot hold runners and cannot throw to first base. All they have to do is lay one down.

While this stack may not have the floor you look for in a stack, there is a ton of leverage to be had and a respectable amount of upside.

MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Secondary GPP Stack: San Diego Padres

If you thought you would get leverage with the Rangers, just wait to see the ownership you could get with the Padres in this spot. Your first reaction is likely..really? Stacking against Madison Bumgarner? My answer? YEP! Let’s check out the numbers from last season for Bumgarner;

Madison Bumgarner | LHP | SFG

Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (down 2.6% from 2017)

HR/9: 0.97

wOBA: 0.304 vs RHB / 0.283 vs LHB

SIERA: 4.42 (up 0.48 from 2017)

FB%: 35%

Hard%: 41.6% (up 6.6% from 2017)

His wOBA allowed and HR/9 rates are still respectable and don’t scream stack, but his hard contact rate is alarming and one other note is the difference pre and post-injury over his last 64 starts, as illustrated below via Alex Chamberlain, the 2018 FSWA baseball writer of the year:

If this trend continues, we could see a lot more stacking against MadBum in the near future. For now, below are the players I will be targeting from the Padres:

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(2) Manny Machado (FD: $4,100 / DK: $4,800)

(4) Wil Myers (FD: $3,200 / DK: $4,400)

(5) Franmil Reyes (FD: $2,600 / DK: $3,700)

All three of the above players posted wOBAs over 0.340 against southpaws last season, led by Franmil’s Reyes ridiculous 0.437 wOBA. While he only had 93 PAs against lefties, this is still noteworthy. On top of that, all three also posted ISOs over 0.220 against LHP in 2017 and aside from Machado, they won’t cost you an arm and a leg to roster for these rates.

The one additional piece that I really hope starts is Hunter Renfroe (FD: $2,900 / DK: $3,600). Last season, he posted a 0.343 wOBA and 0.240 ISO against lefties with a 47.1% hard% (so did Myers and Reyes, for what it’s worth).

This is a stack that I expect to garner even less attention than the Rangers. Yes, it is extremely risky but the ceiling is high, making them a perfect GPP stack that could win you a lot of money if things pan out.

Thank you for reading my inaugural MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article for the 2019 season! Be sure to read all of the stellar content on @FantasyCPR and follow me on Twitter @JMetz34 for more articles, streams, and more!