FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Opening Day 2019

Welcome BACK to FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

Opening Day, at least the real official version (unlike the games in Japan last week) is one of the most exciting days for baseball, all season. Mostly because every fan of every team has hope, and every fantasy baseball team has the possibility of winning. At least, at this point.

The same can be said for MLB DFS. Let’s be honest, we have no idea how opening day will go. We know who the best pitchers have been over the last couple of seasons. We know who the best hitters have been, and best offensive stacks are for cash and GPP plays. But, at this point in the season, those assumptions mean nothing until we have actual baseball play to review.

For that reason, Opening Day is one of the hardest MLB DFS slates. And, while there are many unknowns about each player’s season, we also have to contend with the offensive problem related to every team’s top pitcher on the mound to start the season.

We’re going to take a look at who the top pitchers are for the Opening Day slate. We’ll look at whether or not there are solid value plays, or if it’s better to pay up for a top starting pitcher. And, we’ll look at best offensive stacks for the slate.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @MattyMcMatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: For games being played the earliest calendar date in major league baseball history, I was expecting worse weather conditions. However, the only game with any real weather risk is the White Sox playing in Kansas City against the Royals. 

There is a chance for rain and/or thunderstorms, which could delay or postpone the game, but it’s hard to be certain how that will play out until we see the forecast on Thursday morning.

The weather conditions on the east coast, for most of the first pitches of the season, are absolutely fantastic.

With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitchers Main Slate

For the last week, at least since FanDuel MLB released it’s pricing for starting pitchers likely to hit the mound on Thursday, I’ve been thinking about whether or not to pay up for a top arm. One conclusion I’ve definitely landed on, is that you should NOT look for value.

Jordan Zimmermann ($7,100) was a solid pitcher for the Nationals. That was years ago, and he’s never made it back into that form since moving to Detroit. Especially in Toronto against a solid Blue Jays offense, he’s a hard fade.

Trevor Cahill ($7,500) is a better value option, but he’s facing an efficient A’s team in Oakland. Also, Cahill’s max upside comes nowhere near solid outings from many of the top plays. Luis Castillo ($7,600) lost his velocity and is hurling in a hitters park in Cincinnati. Nope!

And last, but not least, our Picks & Pivots contributor favorite regression candidate from the 2018 season. Jon Lester ($7,700) pitched well above his metrics for the first half of the 2018 season. I recall having multiple discussions with Brian about how Lester is bound to regress in the second half, and Brian was spot on.

Even worse, or better if you’re looking for a stack (which we’ll get to soon), Lester isn’t pitching well against Lefties (thanks for that nugget, too, Brian!). Jose Berrios ($8,900) is the closest we’ll get to value for Opening Day, and even that play I don’t like. Berrios had a 1.40 WHIP in the 2nd half, along with a very high 4.11 FIP (very Lester-esq).

So, for value on Thursday…fade, Fade, FADE!

Great Matt, play the top arms. How novel! Well, if you’re newer to MLB DFS, you’ll notice that’s not often the best play. However, as we just described, it is for Opening Day. So, who do we like?

Max Scherzer ($11,700) and Jacob deGrom ($11,500) are clear favorites. They’re clearly expensive, but even against a good offense, either pitcher can easily land 40 to 50 points, with the possibility of snagging around 70 points, assuming one of their better games of the season, for just one lineup spot. That, is why they’re so expensive.

Either Mad Max or Jake deGrom are great plays for cash games, and are interesting ‘base’ plays to use for a GPP lineup full of game-theory low-ownership offensive bats.

In the second half of last year, Justin Verlander ($11,400) averaged 13.91 K’s per nine innings, more than any other starting pitcher in this slate. He’s also a great play in Tampa, and a slightly cheaper option than Max or deGrom.

But, Blake Snell ($10,600) was a close second with 12.7/nine innings and had a significantly lower HR and WHIP rate. The big problem with Snell is the match up against the Astros.

Now, if you’re not willing to pay above $11K and want a better match up to exploit, consider Corey Kluber ($10,300) and Masahiro Tanaka ($9,400). Tanaka is likely the chalk play, facing the dreadful Orioles in the Bronx.

But, Kluber is a somewhat sneaky play heading into this game. There is a lot of buzz regarding the Twins stealing the top spot in the Central, and many believe the Indians are bound to fade this season due to a lack of off-season improvements. However, assuming that all happens on Opening Day is foolish!

While Tanaka is chalky, he’s still my favorite cash play as he could easily land 40 to 50 points, assuming he has a good outing against a bad offense. At the same time, he’s dishing back plenty of salary to differentiate our lineup with good offense.

From there, I’m also considering Kluber for Cash and GPP, and I’ll certainly have some Verlander, Scherzer, and deGrom in some cash games as well.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

Sometimes playing the Chalk is OK. It’s better for cash games, because the GPP winners need to be a low percentage of lineups, which typically means you grabbed a long list of players the vast majority of players didn’t consider.

So, keep that in mind when you’re looking at the WHIP during the second half of last season for each of the starting pitchers on the mound Thursday. I can’t help but constantly think of stacking the Yankees against someone like Andrew Cashner.

Cashner’s WHIP was a jaw-dropping 1.70 in the latter part of last season. Jon Lester is one of the few closest with a 1.50. His ERA was 6.51, he was giving up 1.55 home runs per nine innings, and he was fanning less, 3.1 per nine innings, than he was walking, 3.78. I mean, you have to wonder why in the world the Orioles are even starting him!

Guys like Aaron Judge ($4,600) and Giancarlo Stanton ($4,300) will be incredibly expensive, and also popular picks. But you don’t need to spend much to get a good chunk of the offensive production year.

I’m likely going to look at better value guys like Gary Sanchez ($3,300) in the cleanup spot against a pitcher giving up too many home runs in a hitters park. OK, maybe Sanchez will be chalky too, but he’s a great play and may hurt you if you fade him.

And Miguel Andujar ($3,700) isn’t as cheap as Sanchez, but he’s another fairly decent shot at ten to 20 points for a sub-$4k FanDuel MLB salary. Andujar should be hitting fifth, a solid MLB DFS spot, and does practically everything on offense except steal bases.

A few more Yankees to consider are Luke Voit ($3,500) and dirt-cheap potential lineup spots for Greg Bird ($2,300) and Troy Tulowitzki ($2,600) who may get into the lineup toward the bottom of the order thanks to injuries. This is a situation where even the bottom of the lineup can yield great return.

As we stated before, and if you’re read Brian’s MLB DFS post as well, you’re not surprised by this, but Jon Lester is another pitcher we want to target on Thursday. The cool thing about that stack is the Rangers are very cheap in their own ballpark.

Two players I love from that lineup are Nomar Mazara ($2,700) and Elvis Andrus ($2,800). Andrus was a solid all-around offensive player last season, but his stolen bases dropped likely hindered by some injuries.

But, after watching Andrus this spring, it appears that may be a temporary issue. Elvis is still a very quick, and young, ball player, and his offense should get us well over ten points for Thursday. Meanwhile, Mazara is notorious for going on home-run streaks in Spring. Now is a good time to pay up for another one.

While I love the Yankees and Rangers stacks, I do think they’re going to be heavily owned. However, there are some other sneakier options. The White Sox have solid offense, and if you can stomach the weather-related potential for delays, they’re a decent play against Brad Keller.

But, in that same game in Kansas City, I also like the Royals against Carlos Rodon, who also had a massive regression in the second half of last season. The Royals, aside from Whit Merrifield ($4,100),are fairly cheap.

Finally, while everyone seems to be moving away from the Indians offense, which has been dynamic for the last couple of seasons, I think they’re another sneaky great play against Berrios, who we also mentioned dealt with a drop off in production the 2nd half of last season.

Note: There’s a decent chance Jose Ramirez ($4,500) actually plays on Thursday.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup for Opening Day 2019 on March 28th

Given I’m attending Opening Day in Washington, D.C., I’m tempted to stack the Nats and Mets. However, I fortunately know better. Scherzer and deGrom are the best plays from that game, and should be considered for cash games.

However, if you’re looking for a sneaky value play, consider Victor Robles ($3,000) likely hitting 8th in the Nats lineup. Robles is the Nats top prospect, and some of the younger Nats have had better success against Jake.

Another big play I love that we didn’t hit on yet is Starling Marte ($3,500) against lower velocity Luis Castillo. The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is a place I have had a lot of offensive success in the past, for MLB DFS, and this set-up seems perfect for Marte.

I also like Travis Shaw ($3,400) against Miles Mikolas in Milwaukee. Shaw has a 1.409 OPS against Mikolas. Miles is a great pitcher, but clearly Travis has his number.

With those side-note value plays aside, our stacking targets for Opening Day are the Yankees, Rangers, White Sox, Royals, or Indians. We also love Mad Max, deGrom, Verlander, Kluber, and Tanaka. Of that group, Tanaka gives you the best maneuverability for FanDuel MLB.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the Main FanDuel MLB slate on Thursday March 28th, Opening Day for 2019:

P                Masahiro Tanaka ($9,400)

C/1B         Gary Sanchez ($3,300)

2B             Yoan Moncada ($3,100)

3B             Travis Shaw ($3,400)

SS             Elvis Andrus ($2,800)

OF             Nomar Mazara ($2,700)

OF             Victor Robles ($3,000)

OF             Starling Marte ($3,500)

UTIL          Miguel Andujar ($3,700)

Remaining Salary: $100

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel MLB lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, NFL, PGA, and NASCAR this summer!