MLB DraftKings Pitching Primer – Opening Day!

MLB Draftkings: Pitching Primer

Welcome everyone to the first edition of the MLB Draftkings Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’m ecstatic to be writing my first MLB DFS piece of the season here at FantasyCPR! For those of you who followed me during NBA season, you know that I pride myself of delivering quality, consistent content and that I highly value my readers’ feedback. So as this column starts to take shape I encourage to let me know what you think I could add or do to improve it as we go along through the season.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games on Draftkings. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here on the introductory slide, usually accompanied by Vegas odds. We don’t always have access to that information the night before but today we happen to have all the lines already set since it’s the first slate of the season.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Today we have a split slate on DK, with an “early only” 5-game slate and a 9-game main slate. Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second. (Note: The Red Sox-Mariners game is not on either slate tonight).

Early Only

Jacob DeGrom vs. Max Scherzer (-140)

Andrew Cashner vs. Masahiro Tanaka (-307)

Miles Mikolas vs. Jhoulys Chacin (-115)

Julio Teheran vs. Aaron Nola (-180)

Main Slate

Jordan Zimmerman vs. Marcus Stroman (-160)

Justin Verlander (-105) vs. Blake Snell

Jon Lester (-110) vs. Mike Minor 

Trevor Cahill vs. Mike Fiers (-115)

Jameson Taillon vs. Luis Castillo (-115)

Zack Greinke vs. Hyu-Jin Ryu (-153)

Kyle Freeland (-125) vs. Jose Urena 

Corey Kluber (-125) vs. Jose Berrios

Madison Bumgarner vs. Eric Lauer (-115)

Carlos Rodon vs. Brad Keller (-110)

MLB Draftkings: Cash Game Aces (Early)

Max Scherzer (11.1k) vs. New York Mets

I absolutely want to pay up for one of the studs pitching in this game today in cash games. These two were among the lead leaders in nearly every pitching category in the National League last season and this game has by far the lowest total at only 7 runs.

Mad Max is the road favorite here and while he does have a flyball tendency that leads to some home runs allowed, he also had a massive 34% K rate last season and a 16% swinging strike rate. This Mets lineup has some good hitters but I expect Max to pitch well and pile up enough strikeouts to give him a solid floor for our cash games.

Jacob DeGrom (10.5k) @ Washington

The only pitcher you could argue was better than Max last season was Cy Young award winner Jacob DeGrom. Despite a record of only 10-9 on the year, DeGrom absolutely dominated hitters all season long. He just didn’t get any run support from his offense. Degrom’s K-rate was just a tad behind Max at 32% and his swinging strike rate at 15%. However, his ground ball rate was higher than Scherzer’s and his hard contact rate lower.

The Washington lineup is pretty right-handed heavy now that Bryce Harper is gone to Philadelphia and I think DeGrom has just as much upside and safety as Mad Max in this game which should be quite a pitchers’ duel between these two powerful right-handers.

MLB Draftkings: GPP Options and SP2s (Early)

Masahiro Tanaka (9.3k) vs. Baltimore

Tanaka is easily the biggest favorite on the early slate as the powerful Yankees are expected to handle a rebuilding Baltimore squad. Tanaka had a solid campaign for the Pinstripes last season in which he went 12-6 with a 3.75 ERA. He’s got great swing-and-miss breaking pitches as evidenced by 14% swinging strike rate and the potential for strikeouts is definitely there against an Orioles lineup that struck out at a 23% clip last season.

but struggled at times to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing 25 home runs. He allowed 35 home runs in 2017 and even though he’s facing a weak Orioles lineup, it’s enough to keep me from using him as my SP1 in cash games. He makes for a great SP2 option in cash if you can find enough cheap hitters and certainly is a top GPP option in this matchup.

Marcus Stroman (6.9k) vs. Detroit

Stroman is a guy I’m willing to take a shot on at this price. There aren’t many cheap SP2 options to like on this slate, and frankly, I’m not in love with this spot for Stroman either. But you can’t deny that the guy has some potential in this matchup. Detroit will roll out a lineup of mainly right-handed hitters and Stroman has an extreme groundball tendency and the ability to limit hard contact against righties. He pitched well this Spring and is looking to bounce back after an injured-plagued down year in 2018.

Jhoulys Chacin (6.3k) vs. St. Louis

I think Stroman will be more popular than Chacin and is a safer option, but if you’re looking for another cheap pivot then consider the fact that Chacin has been nearly as tough on righties as Stroman and will face a Cardinals lineup that lacks much left-handed power outside of Matt Carpenter. The overall numbers don’t jump off the page, but at this price, we are just looking for 5-6 innings of solid work from Chacin in order to make value and allow us to spend up on some bats.

MLB Draftkings: Cash Game Aces (Main )

Justin Verlander (11k) @ Tampa Bay

There is just one pitcher I will be writing up here and it’s JV. The only other pitchers who are in the same category as Verlander are Scherzer and DeGrom and they are on the early only slate. Don’t mess around and try to justify to yourself paying down to other spots in cash games, just lock in JV as your SP1 and move on.

Verlander is only a slight road favorite against a scrappy young Tampa team and is being opposed by the guy that beat him out for the AL Cy Young award, Blake Snell. However, he gets the benefit of pitching in a great pitchers’ park in Tampa and registered the best strikeout rate of his career last season at 35% with a minuscule walk rate of 4.4%. Like Scherzer, he is a fly ball pitcher who can give up some home runs, but the big ballpark will help keep a lot of those fly balls in the yard. I expect him to push for double-digit strikeouts and rack up plenty of DraftKings points.

MLB Draftkings: GPP Options and SP2s (Main)

Blake Snell (9.4k) vs. Houston

If you’re looking to leverage some ownership, why not roll out Snell instead of Verlander in some GPPs? The matchup will likely scare most DFS players away as the Astros have a bunch of solid right-handed bats, but Snell’s stuff is good enough to silence even the best lineups in baseball. He ended up with a 31% strikeout rate last season and an elite 15% swinging strike rate. His walk rates and hard contact rates leave something to be desired, but he is by far one of the elite young arms in the league who’s capable of pitching a gem on any given night.

Jose Berrios (9k) vs. Cleveland

Speaking of young breakout arms, Berrios emerged as the ace of the Twins pitching staff last season. He had some ups and downs during his campaign but still ended with a 3.80 ERA and a 25% K rate. He’s an underdog here against the Tribe and their ace Corey Kluber, but the Indians lineup is missing their superstar Francisco Lindor and could also be Jose Ramirez who was injured in one of the team’s final spring training games. He’s not my favorite play on the board, but I won’t deny the upside that he brings to the mound on opening day.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (9.2k) vs. Arizona

The Dodgers’ opening day starter is…Ryu? Yes, injuries to Kershaw and Buehler are going to force the Dodgers to roll out Ryu in their home opener as they take on the D-Backs. Ryu’s SIERA of 3.18 suggests he wasn’t as good as his 1.97 ERA suggests, however, we are still talking about a pitcher who had a 27% K rate and only a 4% walk rate. The matchup here is great as the D-Backs once formidable lineup is now missing lefty mashers Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock and they struck out at a 24% clip last season. Toss in the fact that Ryu is pitching at home in one of the best pitchers’ parks in the league and he makes for a great GPP option.

Trevor Cahill (6.3k) @ Oakland

Cahill is going to be my favorite SP2 option on the main slate at this price. He’s pitching against his former team and back in a very pitcher-friendly park in Oakland. Cahill profiles a lot like Marcus Stroman, he’s not a great strikeout pitcher but does have an excellent ground ball rate (53%, second only to Stroman). The A’s have the fifth highest implied total on the slate, but I’m not buying it. They have a powerful lineup but also strike out at a 22% clip and I think Cahill’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the park will allow him to pitch deep enough into this game to make value for us.

MLB Draftkings: Gas Cans of the Night (and Day)

Early Slate: Julio Teheran @ Philadelphia

Teheran is making his sixth straight opening day start and to be fair he’s a pretty good MLB pitcher and not a true “gas can.” However, we don’t have many “bad” pitchers throwing on opening day and Teheran is a guy I want to pick on with some powerful Philly bats on this slate (specially, Bryce Harper who has absolutely owned Teheran in his career).

The biggest issue for Teheran is the amoung of hard contact that he allows, specifically to left-handed hitters. He also has a troubling walk rate of 11%. His SIERA of 4.67 indicates that he is much more of an average pitcher than his 3.94 ERA suggests and he has to pitch against a formidable new Phillies lineup in a great hitters’ park.

Main Slate:  Jon Lester @ Texas

The game between the Cubs and Rangers has a huge 9.5 run total that is the highest on the slate. While a Cubs stack against Mike Minor will be popular, I actually am more interested in a Rangers stack against Jon Lester.

Listen, Brian Tulloch isn’t the only MLB DFS writer who is allowed to think that Lester is one of the more overrated pitchers in baseball at this stage of his career. He allowed a .360 wOBA to lefties and a .334 wOBA to righties last season and simply doesn’t strike out many hitters anymore. Like Teheran, his SIERA (4.57) is much higher than his ERA (3.32) which suggest that he’s nothing more than a mediocre pitcher. He also can’t hold runners on base. Stack against Lester and thank me later!

MLB Draftkings: Rankings and Summary

This is a really awesome slate for pitching, and we tend to see pitchers dominate early on in the season due to cold weather and hitters still trying to adjust to seeing good live pitching. My approach will be to pay up for more proven pitchers early on in the season since we don’t have much data to go off with some younger arms.

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Here are my rankings for both Cash Games and GPPs. I split them up in two categories, the early only and late slates. In cash, I really like the idea of using one of the two studs and Tanaka as my SP2 on the early slate. While the evening slate, my current cash game build has Justin Verlander and Trevor Cahill as my SP2.

Early Only:

Cash Game Rankings

1. Scherzer
2. DeGrom
3. Tanaka
4. Stroman

GPP Rankings

1. Tanaka
2. DeGrom
3. Chacin
4. Scherzer

Main Slate:

Cash Game Rankings

1. Justin Verlander
2. Trevor Cahill
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu

GPP Rankings

1. Justin Verlander
2. Blake Snell
3. Jose Berrios

Thanks for checking my first MLB article this season and be sure check in daily for my MLB content this season, as well as all the other awesome MLB articles here at FantasyCPR!