MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – March 29th, 2019

Welcome back to the MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article. In this article, I will run you through the best stacks to build your cash and GPP lineups around and narrow down your player pool!

Whew – what a slate! After a rather quiet set of 1-3pm ET games during Opening Day, the Cubs exploded for 12 runs at some rather heavy ownership and the Dodgers rattled off another dozen at some criminally low ownership while the new-look Phillies added another 10.

The two core cash stacks (Yankees and Cubs) combined for a total of 19 runs, setting people who stacked the two up for success depending on the rest of their lineup.

The GPP stacks (Padres and Rangers), were a bit more disappointing. The Rangers got off to a hot start against our CPR-favorite Jon Lester, but couldn’t muster up much more.

With Opening Day behind us, we now turn to a much smaller 8-game main slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Padres open the slate as the heaviest favorite (-155) and we have both LA teams in phenomenal spots.

With that being said, let’s get to the stacks!

MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Primary Cash Game Stack: Los Angeles Angels

After not even considering Mike Trout on Opening Day (weird, huh?), I see almost no way I will avoid playing him, along a few other Angels in cash tonight. They get to square off with Marco Estrada, an extreme fly ball pitcher who seems to struggle to keep the ball in the park more and more each year. Let’s take a look at some of his notable numbers from last season;

Marco Estrada | OAK

K%: 16.4%

SwStr%: 10.1%

SIERA: 5.45

wOBA: 0.389 vs RHB / 0.322 vs LHB

FB%: 55.6%

Hard%: 29.9%

As shown above, Estrada’s 2018 numbers are scary. His fly-ball rate is alarmingly high while his below-average strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired. If his start last week in Tokyo is any indication of what’s in store for 2019, he could be in for a short season as a part of the rotation. He managed to produce only 1 strikeout in 5 innings, with a sub-6% SwStr%, a SIERA of 8.00 and a fly-ball rate of 78.9%. Below are the key cogs in an Angels stack that I plan to have tons of exposure to:

(1) Kole Calhoun (FD: $2,800 / DK: $3,600)

(2) Mike Trout (FD: $4,800 / DK: $5,700)

(3) Justin Bour (FD: $2,900 / DK: $3,600)

(5) Albert Pujols (FD: $2,700 / DK: $3,400)

It shouldn’t take much convincing at all for you to realize that Mike Trout will be the chalk of the slate and rightfully so. The best player of our generation boasted a 0.457 wOBA and 0.338 ISO against righties last season. Estrada is also a reverse-splits pitcher, giving up a 0.389 wOBA to righties. This strengths the case for Albert Pujols as well. Obviously not the machine he once was (evident by his 0.302 wOBA vs RHB last season), Pujols has looked rejuvenated in Spring, posting a 1.009 OPS over 40 PAs.

The two lefties I like on this team both come in at a great price. Kole Calhoun should lead off and posted a 0.191 ISO against righties last season despite his 0.208 batting average. I fully expect him to bounce-back this season and this matchup should help his cause. New acquisition Justin Bour had a sub-par 2018 between Miami and Philly, but still posted a 0.221 ISO and 0.349 wOBA against righties with a 40% hard-contact rate, making him a great value play.

MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Secondary Cash Game Stack: Oakland Athletics

Staying with the same game here, I fully expect there to be fireworks in the LAA/OAK game with so many high-powered hitters and two gas-can pitchers. Opposite of Marco Estrada will be another fly-ball aficionado, Matt Harvey, listed below;

Matt Harvey | LAA

K%: 19.8%

SwStr%: 9.6%

SIERA: 4.18

wOBA: 0.326 vs RHB / 0.341 vs LHB

FB%: 37.5%

Hard%: 38.9%

The Dark Knight is a nickname of old and I am not buying into Harvey’s stretch in Cincy last season in which he looked like his old self. When he gets hit, he gets hit hard and that is evident by the wOBA numbers above. Hitters from both sides of the plate are viable, beginning with the core below;

(1) Robbie Grossman (FD: $2,300 / DK: $3,500)

(2) Matt Chapman (FD: $4,000 / DK: $4,400)

(4) Khris Davis (FD: $4,300 / DK: $4,800)

Both Matt Chapman and Khris Davis terrorized right-handed pitching last season, posting wOBAs of 0.376 and 0.374 respectfully. On top of that, Davis’ 0.315 ISO is out of this world elite. They both come in as great spend-up options that should come with significantly less ownership than a player like Mike Trout.

Robbie Grossman isn’t the sexiest play in the world, but I have a hard time arguing with a leadoff hitter for such a cheap price tag in a matchup like this. If there’s one positive to take away from his 2018 against RHP, he only struck out 17.9% of the time, showing some fantastic discipline at the plate that could lead to some positive regression.

If you want to add some pieces here, I really like Jurickson Profar, as he posted a 0.341 wOBA and a 0.216 ISO with a 38.6% hard-contact% against righties during his breakout season last year. He’s a great mid-tier option at the 2B position. Kendrys Morales is another fantastic value play with his 0.365 wOBA and 0.220 ISO from the left side of the plate last season and could round out a full 4-man stack.

MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Primary GPP Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

While the Angels have the edge when it comes to matchup, the other team from LA absolutely obliterates left-handed pitching and is coming off of a 12-run performance. The Dodgers get to take on boom-or-bust Robbie Ray, who’s 2018 stats are below;

Robbie Ray | ARI

K%: 31.4%

SwStr%: 12.8%

SIERA: 3.89

wOBA: 0.342 vs RHB / 0.208 vs LHB

FB%: 38.5%

Hard%: 44.4%

The above statistics rather clearly illustrate why the Dodgers are more of a GPP stack than a cash game stack. I will never target a pitcher with a 30+% K-rate and 3.89 SIERA with total confidence, but his struggles with RHBs make the below GPP stack intriguing:

(1) Chris Taylor (FD: $3,100 / DK: $3,800)

(3) Justin Turner (FD: $4,100 / DK: $4,200)

(6) Kike Hernandez (FD: $2,400 / DK: $3,700)

All three of the above players posted wOBAs north of 0.325 and ISOs above 0.180 against right-handed pitching, led by Justin Turner’s 0.433 wOBA and 0.244 ISO. The price tag on him is rather hefty in this spot, but that should reduce ownership and with his upside, he could be a GPP-winning type of play. Chris Taylor gets the best batting spot and chance of additional ABs here and has the track record against LHPs to warrant a play, but my favorite here is Kike Hernandez. He’s completely mis-priced on FanDuel, held a 0.334 wOBA and 0.185 ISO vs lefties last season and is fresh off of a 2 HR effort. Lock and load in all formats.

If you really want to get cute in a GPP, adding Max Muncy to the stack and attacking the L/L matchup isn’t the worst idea in the world. He posted a 0.376 wOBA and 0.275 ISO vs same-handed pitching last season, making him one of the sneakiest options on the slate.

MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Secondary GPP Stack: San Diego Padres

Okay, let’s try this again. The Padres were only able to muster up 2 runs against Madison Bumgarner, but the matchup tonight has a lot more potential and provides a bit of a higher floor with Derek Holland toeing the rubber for the Giants. With that being said, yesterday is a perfect example as to why they’ll remain a GPP stack. Below are the numbers for Holland;

Derek Holland | SFG

K% 23.3%

SwStr%: 10.1%

SIERA: 4.20

wOBA: 0.337 vs RHB / 0.209 vs LHB

FB%: 35.8%

Hard%: 38.8%

Last year was a bit of a revelation for Holland, as he turned himself from an absolute gas-can in Texas to a serviceable starter for the Giants. He still, however, can get hit rather hard and can struggle against right-handed bats. Those are the players I will be targeting here, starting with the below stack;

(2) Wil Myers (FD: $3,200 / DK: $4,800)

(3) Manny Machado (FD: $4,400 / DK: $4,900)

(4) Franmil Reyes (FD: $2,800 / DK: $4,200)

All three of the above players were featured as my Padres stack yesterday, with Myers being the lone bright spot as he took Bumgarner deep. Manny Machado failed to record a hit in his Padres debut, but I have a hard time arguing against his 0.360 wOBA and 0.240 ISO against southpaws in a much easier matchup. He’ll get his, and when he does, you’ll want to be on board.

The Myers play mirrors the rationale last night, high ISO and wOBA, crushes the ball against lefties, and is fresh off of an Opening Day dinger. The confidence is riding high and the pricing discrepancy between the sites should have you looking his way on FanDuel.

Speaking of pricing discrepancies, there is a $1,400 difference in Franmil Reyes’ salaries. Yes, he was taken out in a double-switch yesterday, but lets not forget his 0.437 wOBA and 0.253 ISO vs lefties in 2018.

If you want to get creative here, Fernando Tatis Jr. looked right at home after recording 2 hits in his MLB debut and comes in to a great spot at a reasonable salary tonight. Ian Kinsler should also man the leadoff spot for only $2,900 on FanDuel and was red hot this Spring and recorded an extra base hit yesterday in his Padres debut.

Thanks for reading the MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article for the 8-game main slate on Friday, March 29th! For more MLB DFS Breakdowns, make sure to follow @FantasyCPR on Twitter and myself, @JMetz34, for any questions!