MLB DraftKings Pitching Primer – Friday, 3/29

MLB Draftkings: Pitching Primer

Welcome back to the MLB Draftkings Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and hope your opening day lineups ended up in the green. Last night I tweeted out the performance of my picks from our first MLB DFS slate. I was pretty happy with how most of these performances other than a few.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games on DraftKings. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here on the first slide, usually accompanied by Vegas odds as long as we have them.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Today we have an 8-game main slate that locks at 7:05.  Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second.

Matthew Boyd (-135) vs. Matt Shoemaker

German Marquez (-160) vs. Trevor Richards

Gerrit Cole (-145) vs. Charlie Morton

Jack Flaherty (-110) vs. Freddy Peralta

Matt Harvey (-105) vs. Marco Estrada

Nathan Eovaldi (-150) vs. Yusei Kikuchi

Robbie Ray vs. Ross Stripling (-165)

Derek Holland vs. Joey Lucchesi (-150)

MLB Draftkings: Cash Game Aces

Gerrit Cole (11.2k) @ Tampa Bay

After a first inning, first batter home run by Austin Meadows off Justin Verlander, JV settled in and handled this Tampa lineup.  I think we will see Cole do the same today, and he’s absolutely making my cash game lineups tonight. His 12.6 k/9 last season was the best of his career. He made some mechanical adjustments after arriving in Houston and starting throwing his slider and changeup with more accuracy and sharper movement, giving him some compliments to his devastating 98 MPH fastball. He’s our best bet on the slate for 10+ strikeouts and while this Tampa offense is feisty they don’t scare me much.

German Marquez (9.2k) @ Miami

This is the guy who made me a lot of money down the stretch last season. Marquez had a breakout second half in 2018 as he was lights out both at home and on the road. He held batters to a .216 average in the second half and struck out 120 in 93 innings while only walking 20.

Some have expressed caution in jumping back on Marquez in case we see some regression this year, but this is definitely not the spot where I would expect it. He faces a mainly right-handed Marlins team in a spacious pitchers’ park and I expect him to dominate, picking up where he left off last season.

MLB Draftkings: GPP Options and SP2s

Ross Stripling (9.5k) vs. Arizona

Stripling came out of the pen last year and emerged as one of the Dodgers most reliable starters for a stretch during the middle of the season. Injuries to their two aces Kershaw and Buehler have bumped Stripling up in the rotation as he takes the hill for the Dodgers second game of the season tonight.

Stripling had a solid 10 k/9 rate last season and impeccable control, walking only 1.3 batters per nine innings. His advanced metrics were all really solid other than a 1.3 HR/9 and 17% HR/FB%. Pitching at home should help him keep the ball in the yard and we know this Arizona team is capable of striking out a lot on any given night.

Jack Flaherty (9k) @ Milwaukee

Flaherty dazzled in his rookie campaign, racking up 180 strikeouts in only 150 innings. His 30% k rate was impressive and the only real knock on him was a slightly elevated walk rate. He has a dangerous matchup here against a Milwaukee team loaded with some powerful left-handed bats and he’s on the road in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. That should keep his ownership low. But keep in mind that Flaherty dominated the Brew Crew last season to the tune of a 2.82 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 28 innings over five starts.

Joey Lucchesi (7.9k) vs. San Francisco

Lucchesi was impressive in his rookie campaign, showing some solid strikeout potential with 10 k/9 on the season. The biggest knock on him was a tendency to give up the long ball and his inability to go deep into games (averaged only 5 innings per start). He’s certainly in a good spot tonight though, as he faces a weak hitting Giants team and I like his odds of limiting the damage and picking up a win tonight.

Trevor Richards (7k) vs. Colorado

Richards is probably my favorite tournament option on the slate. He makes for an awesome SP2 option tonight and trust me on this – he won’t be 7k for long. He had some rough stretches in his rookie campaign but showed a lot of promise with some really good outings down the stretch.

The Rockies are an average offense away from Coors, and Richards was a better pitcher at home last season. He showed some reverse splits as he was actually tougher on lefties, holding them to a .290 wOBA.  A solid park factor is in his favor here and while most of the ownership in this game will be on Marquez, Richards has a great chance of matching him here in what could end up a pitchers’ duel.

MLB Draftkings: Gas Can of the Night

Marco Estrada vs. Los Angelas Angels

Maybe Marco went to Oakland because he heard that flyball pitchers can succeed in the spacious stadium there? I wouldn’t bank on it, though. Estrada was so bad last year that I’m kind of amazed he is still in a major league rotation. His ground ball rate dropped all the way to 26% and he surrendered 29 home runs after giving up 31 in 2017.

His strikeouts are down, walks are up, and he simply can’t keep the ball in the yard. He’s shown some reverse splits, too, meaning Mike Trout has a great chance of depositing one in the outfield seats tonight. Stack against him, he’s washed up and already gave up two bombs to the Mariners in the opening series in Japan while striking out only one hitter over 5 innings.

MLB Draftkings: Rankings and Summary

This is another great slate for pitching, and we tend to see pitchers dominate early on in the season due to cold weather and hitters still trying to adjust to seeing good live pitching. My approach will be to pay up for more proven pitchers early on in the season. Pitching is already my first priority when building lineups.

Cash Game Rankings

1. Gerrit Cole
2. German Marquez
3. Joey Lucchesi
4. Trevor Richards

GPP Rankings

1. German Marquez
2. Jack Flaherty
3. Trevor Richards
4. Ross Stripling

If I can find enough cheap bats, I like the idea of using Cole and Marquez in cash games tonight. If not then I think either of those two with Lucchesi as your SP2 is still a solid route to take. The ownership in tournaments should be interesting to see, but I expect Flaherty and Richards to be some of the lower owned options that carry tremendous upside.

Thanks for reading the MLB DraftKings Pitching Primer and make sure you stop back to FantasyCPR for the rest of our excellent MLB DFS content!