DraftKings NBA Early Picks March 30: Ahhhh Capela!

WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 03: Bobby Portis #5 of the Washington Wizards celebrates after scoring in the first half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Capital One Arena on March 03, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Early Picks March 30: Ahhhh Capela!

There are nine NBA games today, but only three of them make up the DraftKings NBA early tournament. Cleveland and the Clips tip at 3:30 eastern. Boston-Brooklyn and Sacramento-Houston don’t tip until 6pm Eastern.

The Kings aren’t mathematically eliminated, but they need to win the rest and someone in front of them needs to lose out. That’s not going to happen. The Mets don’t play basketball. Boston is fighting for home court advantage in the 4-5 matchup with Indiana. Brooklyn is still trying to stay in the playoffs. The Clippers are in, but seeding is still at stake. The only team with nothing to play for is Cleveland, so there shouldn’t be any tanking this afternoon.

It was a rough night in the association. My line was actually solid at 264.25, but Seth Curry hurt. That kept me just under the cash line of 269.

LinkToThePass took it down with three identical lineups. He built with Westbrook and Jamal Murray and hit paydirt with Bobby Portis, Wiggins, KCP, Thad, Rubio and Steven Adams.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 in free DraftKings entry tickets with your first deposit of $5 or more.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 17: Kyrie Irving #11 of the Boston Celtics and Team LeBron drives the ball against Team Giannis in the first quarter during the NBA All-Star game as part of the 2019 NBA All-Star Weekend at Spectrum Center on February 17, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyrie Irving played, and hit the game winner, last night, so it’s safe to call his availability for today into question. Kyrie has only played one game against the Nets this year. He went for 35 DraftKings points in only 27 minutes. I don’t know that he’s worth the risk here.

De’Aaron Fox has struggled against Houston, but he has 99 DraftKings points over the last two games. He’s cheaper, and looks to be a better play than Irving for today.

Honorable Mention:

The middle tier is basically Chris Paul or Collin Sexton. Paul has 84 DraftKings points in just 62 minutes against the Kings this year. This appears to be where to attack the Kings.

Sexton had a solid 26.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Clippers about a week ago. So is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who picked up 30 on the Cavs in that game. Both are solid options, but their prices are to the point where you aren’t going to get lineup changing value out of them.

SGA appears to be the one to go with here if you aren’t using both.

Dark Horses:

I don’t trust any part of the Nets PG rotation. Terry Rozier is a great play at the price since DraftKings can’t jack it up this time if Irving sits. That’s something to keep an eye on.

If Irving plays, then it’s better to go with Marcus Smart. Actually, it might be better to go with Smart anyway. He has torched the Nets for 81.5 DraftKings points in 60 minutes over the two games this year.

My pick: SGA(PG)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 23: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets celebrates the 114-110 over the New York Knicks at the end of the game at Madison Square Garden on January 23, 2019 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

It’s tempting to pay for James Harden just because we can. The likelihood of him being the highest scoring player on a slate this small is great. However, he “only” has 110 DraftKings points in two games against the Kings this year. If the Kings can hang around though, Harden could break the slate. He has only played 65 minutes over the first two games.

D’Angelo Russell is almost always a strong play, but he has come in under value in both games against Boston this year. It’s probably best to pay up for Harden if you can.

Honorable Mention:

Lou Williams is going to be well rested, but he was nothing special in the first game just eight days ago. I would rather go with Buddy Hield, who has 72.75 DraftKings points in only 62 minutes against the Rockets this year.

Jordan Clarkson picked up 30.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. He is also in the midst of five straight games with 24 or more DraftKings points. Clarkson is a solid middle tier option.

Dark Horses:

There is virtually no value at the point tonight, so it’s good that we have a couple of cheaper SG’s. Bogdan Bogdanovic is finally back on track here. He is even putting up good numbers in less than 30 minutes if need be. Bogdan is one of my favorite values of the day.

Iman Shumpert has very little upside, but if you can get a sure 5x value this cheap, that’s good enough on a short slate.

My pick: Harden(SG), Bogdanovic(G)

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 05: Danilo Gallinari #8 of the LA Clippers celebrates his three pointer during a 120-109 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves at Staples Center on November 5, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

With Gallinari carrying a questionable tag because of a sore ankle, it makes a weak position even weaker. The only other possible upper tier option is Hield. If Gallinari can play though, this is a great spot for him. Gallo put up 37.25 DraftKings points in the first game. If Gallinari plays, he’s playing for me as well.

Honorable Mention:

The only one in the middle tier that even remotely interests me is Cedi Osman, and that comes with a caveat. Gallinari dominated Osman in the first meeting, so if Gallo is in, I have zero interest in Osman. If Gallinari is out, Osman could be a nice bargain play. Of course, we can always play Bogdan at SF.

Dark Horses:

Gordon Hayward only put 20 DraftKings points on the Pacers last night and was under that in the first meeting with the Nets. There is way too much volatility here unless Kyrie sits. Then the Celtics will ride Hayward’s shooting off the bench.

Joe Harris has 94 DraftKings points over the last three games. His shot is finally falling again, and he is chewing up a lot of minutes at SF because of it. There is always inherent risk using Nets since the rotations can be as wacky as far out crops, but I’m riding Harris while he’s on a hot streak.

My pick: Harris(SF)

CLEVELAND, OH – JUNE 08: Kevin Love #0 of the Cleveland Cavaliers warms up before Game Four of the 2018 NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors at Quicken Loans Arena on June 8, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Both Bagley and Kevin Love have tough matchups here, but that’s not enough to completely discount them. Nemanja Bjelica is out tonight, so Bagley should see more than the 27 minutes he has averaged against Houston this year. Bagley has 57 DraftKings points in those two games against Houston. That’s under value at this price, but with Bjelica out, Bagley should play 32 minutes or more.

As for Love, he went for 34.5 DraftKings points on the Clippers a week ago. He is a very safe option that is ideal for cash games. For GPP, I think I want the upside of Bagley.

Honorable Mention:

Al Horford has 100 DraftKings points in just 73 minutes against the Nets this year. Forget what else is going on with the Celtics. Horford is going to terrorize this front.

Larry Nance put up 33.25 in the first meeting with the Clippers. Love and Nance are getting most of the minutes up front as Cleveland has no reason to push Thompson. I don’t have an issue with using both of them side by side.

Dark Horses:

Kurucs starts, but DeMarre Carroll has been playing more minutes. Boston’s weak spot is the four. Carroll’s numbers reiterate that since he has averaged 29.6 DraftKings points per game against Boston this year. If using a Nets F, go with Carroll.

JaMychal Green is back in the fold. He put up 19.25 DraftKings points against Cleveland last week. While that’s not great, Green just turned in a really good outing against the Bucks on Thursday. His stock seems to be trending upwards.

My pick: Nance(PF), Green(F), Horford(UTIL)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 17: Jarrett Allen #31 of the Brooklyn Nets reacts during the game against LA Clippers at Barclays Center on November 17, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Capela has only played one game against the Kings this year, but he absolutely dominated in that game. Capela went for 55.5 DraftKings points and only missed 3 of 14 shots from the field. Capela might be the top play on this slate, and that includes over his more famous teammate.