Hidden Scroll seeks redemption in Florida Derby on Saturday

Hidden Scroll seeks redemption in Florida Derby on Saturday

It happens every year prior to the Kentucky Derby (G1).

After Hidden Scroll won his debut by an eye-opening 14 lengths on Jan. 26, social media horse racing pundits exploded in an equine ecstasy not seen since… well, last winter.

According to some of the comments I saw on Twitter and Facebook, the Juddmonte Farm homebred was a freak, only slightly inferior to some of the all-time greats like Man o’ War, Secretariat and, more recently, Justify.

Then came the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).

Sent off as the 6-5 favorite in that March 2 race, Hidden Scroll set blazing fractions — a half-mile in 45.69 seconds, six furlongs in 1:10.42 — despite stumbling and bumping with a rival at the start. Not surprisingly (except, I suppose, to the aforementioned social media racing gurus), the colt faded to finish fourth that day.

Frankly, I thought it was a pretty good effort.

Hidden Scroll earned a -15 early speed ration in that event (my own creation, ESRs measure the early energy expended by a horse in the initial stages of a race — the lower the figure, the more energy exerted and vice versa). A -10 figure is taxing, a -15 is insane in a two-turn graded stakes race like the Fountain of Youth.

Given this, I think Hidden Scroll stands a reasonable shot of leading from flag-fall to finish in Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park — if he gets a clean break and he can rate, like Palace Malice in the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1).

Here’s a quick look at the field for one of the most prolific Kentucky Derby preps of the New Millennium:

2019 FLORIDA DERBY

1-HIDDEN SCROLL (5/2 morning line odds)

Like the horse, hate the odds. The fact is obvious early speed is nearly always over-bet and I can definitely see that happening this weekend, especially considering this guy’s reputation as a top Kentucky Derby contender — a reputation that has not yet been completely tarnished.

My Fair Odds: 3-1

2-CURRENT (15/1)

Tries the dirt for only the second time for trainer Todd Pletcher after his previous main track try resulted in a mid-pack finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). I have mixed feelings and would need a good price to play this dude with any gusto.

My Fair Odds: 20-1

3-HARVEY WALLBANGER (15/1)

I’m inclined to like horses named after cocktails and this colt does have some selling points — mainly, a nice win in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) in his last start. However, both the speed figure and late speed ration came back a little light in that affair. Nonetheless, if his morning line odds are indicative, I think the son of Congrats is worth an upset look.

My Fair Odds: 10-1

4-BOURBON WAR (7/2)

OK, so maybe I don’t like all horses named after alcoholic beverages. Look, this guy suffers from the same problem Hidden Scroll does. After a fast-closing second in the Fountain of Youth, social media horse racing experts were nearly drowned in their own slobber, extolling his virtues. And that invariably spells “underlay” (a horse going to post at odds well below its actual chances of winning).

My Fair Odds: 8-1

5-EVERFAST (20/1)

Son of Take Charge Indy, who won this race in 2012 before finishing 19th in the Kentucky Derby, was runner-up in the Holy Bull Stakes at odds of over 100-1, but regressed — badly — in the Fountain of Youth. He’ll need to be at his absolute best to have an impact on Saturday.

My Fair Odds: 30-1

6-HARD BELLE (50/1)

The couple of times this colt has competed in graded stakes events — the Palm Beach (G3) on turf and the Swale (G3) on dirt — he’s been 136-1 and 204-1 respectively. Oh, and he’s finished eighth both times. If he wins, I’m selling my house and buying lottery tickets with the proceeds.

My Fair Odds: 99-1

7-MAXIMUM SECURITY (9/2)

Here’s the deal: This colt, by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champion New Year’s Day, has won his three races by a combined total of 34 ½ lengths and certainly deserves a shot in stakes company, even Grade I company.

However, he’s a frontrunner with ESRs that are 10+ lengths inferior to those earned by Hidden Scroll. Now, this doesn’t mean he can’t compete with the race favorite, but it does mean that he will need to expend a lot more energy to keep in touch early and, of course, that is energy that won’t be available later in the race. He’s a contender, but I’d insist on a decent price.

My Fair Odds: 6-1

8-BODEXPRESS (30/1)

Son of 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes (G1) runner-up Bodemeister is still a maiden (winless) and his LSRs are awful.

My Fair Odds: 25-1

9-CODE OF HONOR (3/1)

Try as I may, I just can’t get excited about this dude. His overall speed ratings, ESRs and LSRs all rank fifth in today’s field and he earned just a -13 late speed ration when running down Hidden Scroll in the Fountain of Youth. He’s tactical, I’ll give him that, but I think he’s an underlay this weekend and, therefore, I have to pass.

My Fair Odds: 9-2

10-UNION’S DESTINY (30/1)

I hate his LSRs, but am otherwise intrigued by this son of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Union Rags. His performance in the ungraded Smooth Air Stakes was pretty good, as he finished third after sitting close to a pretty fast pace (-13 ESR), and his race in the Fountain of Youth was pretty much over when he went 7-wide into the first turn. This trainer and jockey have had success together in the past and this colt has a big chance to outrun his odds.

My Fair Odds: 15-1

11-GARTER AND TIE (15/1)

This Florida-bred colt has recorded some big speed figures in the past and did not disgrace himself in the Holy Bull, which was his first foray into graded company. His recent LSRs leave a lot to be desired and the jockey switch from Tyler Gaffalione to Jeffrey Sanchez is puzzling to say the least (over the past year, trainer Ralph Nicks and Sanchez have teamed up for just one win in 18 starts), but I do like the blinkers coming off. Mixed signals.

My Fair Odds: 10-1

Betting suggestion(s)

I’ll key HIDDEN SCROLL on top if he’s anywhere near 3-1 odds at post time, but I’ll also be using HARVEY WALLBANGER, GARTER AND TIE and UNION’S DESTINY in my exotic plays. (Also, if Hidden Scroll wins, I’ll explain in a future column why I’ll be playing against him in the Kentucky Derby.)