MLB DraftKings Pitching Primer – Saturday, 3/30

MLB Draftkings: Pitching Primer

Welcome back to the Saturday Edition of the MLB Draftkings Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on DraftKings all season long at FantasyCPR.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games on DraftKings. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

For the second night in a row, we had the vast majority of our pitchers do well and that’s encouraging here early on in the season. If you may have noticed, a lot of pitchers have been throwing well in these first two days of the season. Is that a product of the best starters being run out their first by their teams? Or does it fit with the trend of pitching dominating early on in the season during cold weather and while hitters are still getting their timing down? It’s probably a combination of both.

It dawned on me that I don’t have a glossary of terms for some of the sabermetrics that I use to analyze pitching each and every day. Here are some of the stats that I use most frequently and a quick explanation.

WHIP = Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched

This is a valuable metric when playing Draftkings as pitchers are penalized for hits and walks unlike the scoring system on FanDuel which only penalizes earned runs.

SIERA = Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average

Just using ERA is a thing of the past and doesn’t really capture the effectiveness of a pitcher that well anymore. SIERA is an ERA estimator that attempts to determine whether or not a pitcher’s actual ERA should have been higher or lower than it was based on how well they pitched.

FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching

This metric attempts to estimate what a pitcher’s ERA would be if they got average results on balls that are put into play. Basically trying to strip away the positive or negative effects of good/bad defense behind them or just bad luck on balls hit weakly that fall in for hits.

SS% = Swinging Strike Percentage

The percentage of pitches that a pitcher gets the opposing hitter to swing and miss. Some people don’t love this stat but I do. It generally correlates well with high strikeout percentages and helps us identify pitchers with an arsenal of pitches that can rack up Ks.

GB% = Ground Ball Percentage

Ground balls are good because they can never be home runs. We want to target pitchers with higher ground ball rates whenever possible.

K% = Strikeout Percentage

Percentage of batters that the pitcher has struck out divided by the total number of hitters they’ve faced.

HR/FB = Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio

Percentage of fly balls that turned into home runs for any given pitcher. Can be affected by the dimensions of their home stadium.

K/9 = Strikeouts per 9 innings

Obviously, strikeouts are one of the most important DFS stats we are looking for. We typically want to target guys who average more than a K per inning or 9 K/9 or better.

There may be some other terms I use this season. I encourage you if you ever want to dive deeper into pitching to check out FanGraphs and dig into as many stats as you want. Your head will spin, it’s so much fun!

MLB Draftkings: First Look

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here on this slide, usually accompanied by Vegas odds.  I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Today we have a split slate with a 6-game early slate at 1:05 and a 6-game main slate at 7:05.  Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second.

Early Only (1:05)

Nate Karns vs. James Paxton (-410)

Noah Syndergaard vs. Stephen Strasburg (-120)

Trevor Bauer (-125) vs. Jake Odorizzi 

Trevor Williams vs. Sonny Gray (-135)

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Jake Junis (-125)

Spencer Turnbull vs. Aaron Sanchez (-127)

Holy Batman, check out those odds on Paxton and the Yankees! I wonder who my cash game ace is going to be? One familiar name in a new place is Sonny Gray, who is looking to have a renaissance in Cincinnati.

Main Slate (7:05)

Dakota Hudson vs. Brandon Woodruff (-130)

Yu Darvish (-133) vs. Edinson Volquez 

Dereck Rodriguez vs. Nick Margevicius (-128)

Felix Pena vs. Brett Anderson (-115)

Eduardo Rodriguez (-135) vs. Mike Leake

Zach Godley vs. Kenta Maeda (-170)

Some good young arms here on the night slate. If you haven’t heard of some of these kids, don’t worry, you will. The biggest favorite is Maeda at home and my favorite underdog is likely Rodriguez on the road.

MLB Draftkings: Cash Game Aces (Early)

James Paxton (10.8k) vs. Baltimore

Paxton makes his Yankees debut and he couldn’t ask for a better set up today. He will face an Orioles lineup that lacks power and has the backing of one of the best offenses in the league behind him. He’s a massive home favorite today and carries the highest K-rate on the slate at 32% last season. This is a no brainer, lock him in as your SP1 and don’t try to get cute. There is very little chance that he doesn’t dominate the O’s in this game.

Trevor Bauer (9.8k) @ Minnesota

Bauer’s price here is really appealing, considering he is 11k on FanDuel and the most expensive pitcher on the slate over there. I prefer Bauer’s matchup here against the Twins over the tougher matchups that Syndergaard and Strasburg have against each other.

Bauer had a stellar 2018 campaign in which he struck out 31% of the hitters he faced. His walk rate is higher than I’d like and his hard contact rate is also not ideal, but I think he should be fine here against a Twins offense that I’m not convinced is anything special. If you are a BvP truther don’t look at Bauer’s history against the current Twins as it’s not great.

MLB Draftkings: GPP and SP2 (Early)

Jake Junis (8.1k) vs. Chicago White Sox

Junis had quite the up an down season in 2018. He showed some great potential but also really struggled at times and was victimized by the long ball as he gave up 32 homers on the season. His numbers in the second half were considerably better and I’m convinced he has the makings of a good major league pitcher if he can get his act together. I’m chasing the matchup here mainly, as he faces a White Sox team that has the highest team K-rate from last year at 25%.

Sonny Gray (7.6k) vs. Pittsburgh

I’ll go on record here that I rarely recommend pitchers who are pitching in the Great American “Small Park.” But, the options at SP2 on this early slate are a little thin and I’m intrigued by Gray at this price. He had a rough year with the Yankees and was eventually yanked from the rotation due to his ineffectiveness. His overall numbers suggest that he wasn’t as bad as people probably think he was as he had a SIERA of 4.28 compared to his 4.90 ERA.

His GB% of 50% is promising for a guy who’s going to have to keep the ball on the ground in order to succeed pitching half his games in such a great hitters’ park. I’m a Pirates fan (for those who didn’t know) and I can tell you that the lineup they rolled out on opening day was unimpressive. I think this is a matchup that Gray can exploit and I doubt he’s very highly owned.

Aaron Sanchez (7k) vs. Detroit

I’m not a huge Sanchez fan, but it’s hard not to like him in this matchup against a Detroit team that has already struck out 24 times in the first two games of this series against the likes of Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Shoemaker, and the Toronto bullpen. Sanchez has always fought control issues and last year also battled some injuries and had the worst campaign of his career. He had a solid spring, however, and he should face mainly right-handers today against Detroit, which is a plus matchup for him with his slider being his best pitch.

Spencer Turnbull (6k) @ Toronto

Turnbull is a deep GPP flyer and is the second cheapest pitcher on the slate. His ERA in a handful of starts in his rookie year was an alarming 6.06, but his SIERA was only 3.76. A solid groundball rate, low walk rate, and average strikeout rate all give me some hope that he is actually a decent arm and I certainly don’t mind picking on Toronto, a team that whiffed 10 times against Matt Boyd yesterday.

MLB Draftkings: Cash Game Aces (Main)

Kenta Maeda (10.1k) vs. Arizona

The main slate really lacks any true aces, but Maeda grades out as the safest choice by far. It’s no fun paying 10k for a guy who may only pitch 5-6 innings, but Maeda is certainly a solid pitcher in a plus matchup. He was moved to the bullpen down the stretch last season, but he’d be a top of the rotation arm on a lot of other teams that don’t have the pitching depth that the Dodgers do.

We’ve seen Ryu and Stripling both handle the D-backs so far in this series, and Maeda’s stuff is just as good as theirs, if not better. His K-rate of 29% is the best on the main slate and his SS% of 14.5% is elite. His breaking pitches generate a lot of swings and misses and I think he’s a safe bet for a solid outing tonight on the hill for the Dodgers.

I can’t in good conscience recommend any other pay up options for cash games today. Eduardo Rodriguez is the only other guy who’s in play here, but I’m not really interested in attack this hot Seattle team that is loaded with right-handed power.

MLB Draftkings: GPP and SP2 (Main)

Dereck Rodriguez (7.5k)

D-Rod (son of former MLB catcher Pudge Rodriguez) had a solid rookie season for the Giants last year and showed some increased velocity this spring. However, I’m looking at him here based more on the matchup than I am on the fact that I am convinced he has arrived as a consistent major league starter. The Padres had the worst strikeout rate on the slate (25%) last season and posted really poor wOBA and ISO numbers against righties, too. Their lineup is very right-handed heavy and this matchup should favor the hard-throwing Rodriguez tonight.

Brett Anderson (6.4k)

It is with a small amount of vomit in the back of my throat that I have to recommend Brett Anderson as an SP2 option for this slate. The rest of the options are bleak, but here’s why I think Anderson is viable.

First of all, he’s not that bad. He posted a 4.13 SIERA with a 4% walk rate and a 55% ground ball rate. He’s a great control pitcher who pitches to contact. He’s not going to strike out many guys (horrible 14% strikeout rate), but he definitely can get hitters to hit into outs. He has the benefit of pitching at home tonight in the best pitchers’ park in the majors and he faces an Angels team that was really bad against lefties last season (.291 wOBA, .145 ISO).

I had a lot of success last year picking on the Angels with even mediocre lefties like Anderson and I think he makes for a sneaky GPP play tonight that will allow you to pay up for some bats.

MLB Draftkings: Gas Cans of the Night

Early: Jake Odorizzi vs. Cleveland

I’m going to be stacking Indians today and I doubt many others will after their offense looked abysmal against Jose Berrios on opening day. However, Odorizzi is no Berrios. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher that walks way too many guys and gives up way too much hard contact. He’s surrendered 50 home runs over the last two seasons and has been equally bad against righties and lefties. He’s just not the pitcher he once was and I think we see the Cleveland bats bust out against him.

Main: Mike Leake vs. Boston

I mean, Mike Leake could troll us on any given night and get 20+ guys to hit the ball right at his fielders, it’s certainly within the range of outcomes. But, I’m going to bank on some of those balls falling in for hits or flying over the fence tonight as Leake faces arguably the best offense in baseball in Boston.

Leake pitches to contact and has only a 15% k rate and a crazy low 7% swinging strike rate. He has great control but gives up a ton of hard contact. He’s basically the right-handed version of Brett Anderson at this stage of his career, but unfortunately for Leake, he has to face the Bo Sox, who have the highest team wOBA, second highest ISO, and second lowest K-rate of any offense on this slate. Put it this way, the Red Sox are going to hit the ball hard and there’s not much Leake can do about it.

MLB Draftkings: Rankings and Review

This is where I leave you with my final thoughts on how you should go about deploying these arms in your cash game and GPP contests today. I split the rankings up into early and main since that is how the slates are broken up by DraftKings today.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Cash Game Rankings (Early)

1. Paxton
2. Bauer
3. Strasburg
4. Junis (SP2)

GPP Rankings (Early)

1. Paxton
2. Bauer
3. Gray (SP2)
4. Sanchez (SP2)

Cash Game Rankings (Main)

1. Maeda
2. Rodriguez (SP2)
3. Anderson (SP2)

GPP Rankings (Main)

1. Rodriguez
2. Maeda
3. Anderson (SP2)
4. Woodruff

Well that’s it! I hope you are enjoying these pitching breakdowns as well as all the other free MLB content we offer here at FantasyCPR! We have a great staff and we are constantly working tirelessly to bring you the best DFS advice we can. Good luck in your contests!