DraftKings NBA Picks March 31: To Beal or not to Beal?

TORONTO, ON – JULY 27: Pascal Siakam of the Toronto Raptors takes in the BIG3 three on three basketball league at Scotiabank Arena on July 27, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/BIG3/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 31: To Beal or not to Beal?

The NBA just can’t let the college guys have their moment. There are seven NBA games today. The early bird at 12:30 eastern gets it’s own showdown slate in Atlanta. The othertwo early games are the early DraftKings NBA slate, and the main DraftKings NBA one has the last four. These slates are just big enough to give us a few interesting choices.

It was a truly awful NBA night last night. The Craptors released that Siakam wouldn’t start after the game locked, and he ended up not playing at all. My day lineup hit 326.5 DraftKings points but still didn’t crack the top 2500.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

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BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 21: Khris Middleton #22 of the Milwaukee Bucks looks on during the game against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on December 21, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Showdown: Bucks at Hawks:

The status of Giannis is going to determine what a lot of lineups look like. Giannis rolled his ankle on Thursday. The Bucks are atop the East with a pretty solid lead, so they really don’t have much reason to push him. I’m going to approach this as if Giannis is sitting.

Malcolm Brogdon, Dewayne Dedmon, and Tony Snell, Omari Spellman, Pau Gasol, Miles Plumlee, Donte DiVincenzo, and Nikola Mirotic are already out. There could be some really good value in this game, which can help when determining our lineups.

For the captain here, Khris Middleton is the easy choice. If Giannis plays, it’s an easy enough switch to Trae Young. Even if Giannis plays, I doubt he plays more than 30 minutes. Save the captain slot for someone who is going to get a lot of court time. It comes down to Middleton or Young. I’m not even considering anyone else for the captain slot.

That leaves us about $6,500 left per slot. Trae Young is coming off a near triple double against Portland, and has 82.5 DraftKings points in two games agianst the Bucks here. It’s tempting to lock in Bledsoe with Giannis out, but Young has more upside. That said, with the amount of value available, why not go with both?

John Collins isn’t going to play enough to really take advantage of Milwaukee’s shortcomings up front. Brook Lopez is a strong play, but you’re going to have to choose between Bledsoe and BroLo. To me, its a really easy choice.

Now we need value. A lot of value. Pat Connaughton is the easy value play. Beyond that, we’re going to have to get creative. Sterling Brown has played well in place of Snell, and he’s still very cheap. Ersan Ilyasova and D.J. Wilson will split the time vacated by Giannis. Ilyasova is the better pick if you can afford him.

Justin Anderson is starting at just $1,600, but you get what you pay for. He likely wont break 20 DraftKings points.

Daily Fantasy Basketball: OAKLAND, CA – FEBRUARY 06: Paul George #13 and Russell Westbrook #0 of the Oklahoma City Thunder looks on against the Golden State Warriors during the second half of their NBA basketball game at ORACLE Arena on February 6, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Early Picks:

There are only two afternoon games, but there is some star power out there. However, the Thunder are the only playoff bound team, so watch for the tankers holding players out.

Doncic and LeBron James have already been ruled out. Anthony Davis is officially questionable, but New Orleans has no reason to play him. They’ll go through the motions, but expect him out. Frank Jackson, E’Twaun Moore, Darius Miller, and Josh Hart will also be in street clothes.

The Thunder have a lot to play for, so using a core of Westbrook and Paul George looks like a great place to start, especially with Luka Doncic already ruled out. Westbrook has 114 DraftKings points in two games against Dallas, so he would seem to be worth the price. Paul George is a bit tougher of a choice. In three games against Dallas, PG is only averaging 44.5 DraftKings points and one of those was even without Westbrook. If you’re feeling a cash pinch, it’s okay to fade George.

Locking in Westbrook leaves us with around $5,600 per position, which is plenty on this slate, especially if we fade George. The only other high priced guy that I’m really interested in is Julius Randle in his revenge game against the Lakers.

You shouldn’t have a cash pinch. With an extensive injury report and three teams with nothing to play for, there is a ton of value out there. The trick is finding the right mix of it. KCP is actually the highest priced SG left, but he just so inconsistent! I almost think it’s safer to roll with Jalen Brunson with Doncic out.

For the Lakers with LeBron out, the big play is JaVale McGee. Kyle Kuzma is a strong play as well, but I really don’t see anyone else that jumps out. KCP and Lance Stephenson are definitely tempting for the price point.

New Orleans is the home of the value. I want to use both Elfrid Payton and Randle. So will everyone else. Digging deeper is where we find the good stuff. Christian Wood has been outstanding since the Pelicans are willing to play him where Milwaukee just didn’t have room. And he’s cheap enough.

Kenrich Williams and Stanley Johnson are going to see a lot of minutes with Jackson and Miller out. So will Ian Clark. The issue here is that we know what we get with all three of them. None of them are particularly strong offensive players. Jahlil Okafor is the other guy to go after if Davis is out.

That leaves Dallas. What to do with Dallas? Dwight Powell is the only one priced over $5,000, and I’m not that interested in him against Steven Adams. Maxi Kleber is the way to go with the Thunder’s weakness against power forwards. Whoever starts among Trey Burke and Justin Jackson will be a great value play.

The Thunder-Mavs game does have blowout potential, so you could take a look at Dennis Schroder, Markieff Morris, and Nerlens Noel. However, it’s always dangerous to play for a blowout. Use the guaranteed value with the Pelicans or Mavericks.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – FEBRUARY 13: Jonas Valanciunas #17 of the Memphis Grizzlies moves against Robin Lopez #42 of the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on February 13, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Main Picks:

There is more star power in the four game main slate, and also some better matchups. Some. The Kings are now out of contention, so it remains to be seen how they will finish out the year. I would bet that Fox and Bagley still play though.

Denver and the Warriors are tied for first out West, and both are in games with huge blowout potential. Keep an eye out for resting players. The Spurs are trying to avoid the eight seed and need all the wins they can get. I don’t think anyone rests here, but if Denver or the Warriors get up big, they will get their guys some rest.

Nikola Jokic only put up 41 DraftKings points on Washington the first time around. That’s not nearly enough. His floor would appear to be lower than Curry’s, but Curry only put up 39.25 in the first game against Charlotte. Durant’s numbers were about the same. So what we have are three stars that didn’t do much in their first meeting with these respective teams. On top of that, Kemba Walker‘s stats were right there with Curry and Durant. Now what?

Bradley Beal. It’s all Beal all the time with Wall out. De’Aaron Fox is averaging Curry’s output against the Spurs over three games this year and he’s $1,000 cheaper. Mike Conley continues to put up good numbers as well, but the Grizzlies are reining him in a bit.

With the guards set, I’m prioritizing the Grizzlies front against the Clippers. Bruno Caboclo and Jonas Valanciunas have been outstanding lately. That gives us only a shade under $5,000 left for the last four positions. One of those will be filled by the red hot Bryn Forbes. Bogdan Bogdanovic is a great pick as well.

At center, how can we not go with JaVale McGee after his last game? The Kings aren’t as bad up front as the Nets are, but they are trying! Speaking of horrid interior defense, the Celtics were chewed up by LaMarcus Aldridge in the first meeting. Smart can handle DeRozan. No one can handle LMA!

With those values we can still sneak Marvin Bagley into our lineups. There are a couple of downsides to this though. First off, it means fading the Washington power trio of Parker/Bryant/Portis but against Denver, I’m okay with that. Second, it means we have to go back to the Spurs for value and given their rotations, that’s not always ideal.

LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 16: Russell Westbrook #0 of the Oklahoma City Thunder dunks after a steal against the LA Clippers at Staples Center on January 16, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Sample Lineups:

DraftKings NBA Early Sample Lineup:

PG: Russell Westbrook
SG: Lance Stephenson, Trey Burke or Justin Jackson
SF: Kyle Kuzma
PF: Julius Randle, Maxi Kleber, Christian Wood
C: JaVale McGee