MLB Bets To Win – Sunday March 31
By John Fazio
Good day and greetings from MLB bets at our handicapping central. Sunday offers some plus plays so let’s jump right into the action.
Saturday started well but the Cub collapse sent the day negative. Using every game as 1 unit and adjusting for lay and take, MLB bets is now up +3.80 units on the season. Time to see if we can close out the week with a bang. All times Eastern.
Baltimore (+3.05) has a decent chance to beat New York, 1.10 pm
Baltimore, winners of a 5-3 decision in the Bronx yesterday, has a fighting chance to do the same thing today. Both starting pitchers, Dylan Bundy for the Orioles and J.A. Happ for the Yankees, pitched very poorly in spring training sporting ERA’s just under 8.
This is setting up to be a free for all with anybody’s guess as to which pitcher will perform better than the other. Since Baltimore won on Saturday, we cannot dismiss the possibility of another win today.
Both sides pounded out hits and missed a slew of opportunities to run up the score. MLB bets thinks this is much closer to a toss-up and is certainly willing to take a big plus money shot on the underdog. Go Baltimore.
Minnesota (+1.00) edges Cleveland, 2:10 pm
MLB bets is predicting the Twins to get back on the winning track today after a close loss yesterday and a close win on opening day. The Indians had a decided pitching advantage yesterday but failed to muster more than 4 hits.
The match-up today looks more like opening day and so MLB bets is looking for a Minnesota victory in similar fashion. On the road Cleveland is not a powerhouse and should not be viewed as being able to create easy wins in that environment.
MLB Bets To Win – Royals overpower White Sox
Kansas City (-1.15) knocks off Chicago, 2:15 pm
MLB bets is predicting yet another win for the Royals at home. Today the pitching match-up favors Kansas City as spring training results showed a moderate ERA for Jorge Lopez and a high ERA for Lucas Giolito.
Adding to that, KC has played great on their home field both in spring training and now in the regular season. Chicago has not been terrible on the road but they are facing a very strong home team advantage today.
Let’s give the Royals another try to hold serve and take down another win.
Seattle (+1.30) upends Boston, 4:10 pm
Seattle has played well and was in a great position to possibly sweep the Red Sox today except for a dramatic Boston comeback 2 days ago. However the way these 2 teams are playing, Boston should not be the favorite.
The value side is taking the plus money. The games in this series have been highly competitive with a slight edge to Seattle so let’s take this advantage.
Arizona (+200) trips Los Angeles, 4:10 pm
Luke Weaver had an excellent spring training, pitching 17.1 innings giving up 2 earned runs with 15 strikeouts. Getting plus 2-1 with a pitcher as good as this is something MLB bets will do all the time.
The Dodgers crushed Arizona yesterday but the D-Backs won the night before in 13 innings, so this series is not in LA’s complete control. The Dodger pitcher, Walker Buehler, only pitched 2.2 innings in spring training.
Arizona is worth a play at this price.
MLB Bets To Win – Braves upset Phillies
Atlanta (+1.38) surprises Philadelphia, 7:05 pm
MLB bets is projecting the Braves to collect their first win of the season in highly charged Philadelphia as these 2 teams play in the featured Sunday night game. Atlanta out-hit Philly yesterday but blew a 3 run lead on route to an 8-6 loss.
In this type of situation, with the home team on a roll and playing around a 1.50 favorite in a featured stand-alone game, public percentage will be extremely high on Philly. As of this overnight writing, the Phillies have received a whopping 94% of all bets placed.
This % rate will drop from here somewhat but will remain very high right up to game time. This bet looks like an easy win and will be used straight and in parlays. Of critical note, however, is in many cases the public bet, in this instance Philadelphia, will lose. It happens time and time again and is too big a trend to ignore.
On the handicapping side of the analysis, both starting pitchers have fared moderately poorly through spring training and with both sides pounding the ball this game looks like a toss-up. Receiving plus money is a value play here.
MLB bets will be siding with Atlanta as they look to notch a win before playing their home opener on Monday.
Recap of Sunday’s Selections From MLB Bets:
Baltimore +3.05
Minnesota +1.00
Kansas City -1.15
Seattle +1.30
Arizona +2.00
Atlanta +1.38
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