DraftKings MLB Main Picks April 1: Trolling for Trout

All but four teams are in action today, but only nine of them make the DraftKings MLB main slate. DraftKings did something foolish in honor of April Fools’ Day: they took the four early games and split those up two and two as well. Those looks like traps, so it seems prudent to just focus on the big tournament.

DraftKings MLB Main Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Matt Strahm ($9,200): Strahm dominated the Diamondbacks in relief last year and likely will again. The only thing that worries me a little about this play is the ownership. However, you can’t avoid all the highly owned players and win. You have to know where to pick your battles, and this may not be one we want to pass up on. I have no issue dropping to Urias because the strikeout potential is just as high, but Strahm should go deeper into the game making him the guy to pay for tonight.

Julio Urias ($8,700): A dominant spring by Urias and a pitiful opening series by the Giants is going to spike ownership here. I get it. It’s exciting to see those strikeouts. However, the Dodgers probably wont let Urias go any longer than five innings, if that. The strikeout upside is huge, but is Urias going to outscore the lower tier by enough to justify the price jump? Just something to consider before you lock him in.

Middle Tier:

Steven Matz ($8,300): Matz has held the Marlins to a .200 average in 65 at bats wtih only one solohomer and 15 strikeouts. Those are elite BvP numbers. Now the bad news: Matz had a 7.47 ERA in five spring starts. He settled down towards the end of spring, so there is some hope here. Matz is just 7-18 over the last two seasons, but that’s more a product of the awful offense behind him. This is going to be a rebound season for Matz and the Mets in general. Get in on the ground floor!

Caleb Smith ($7,600): Smith picked up 45.6 DraftKings points in two starts against the Mets last year. A lot of that had to do with the 15 strikeouts in only 11.2 innings. The Mets offense is better than last year, but this Marlins pitching staff is underrated. The only question here is whether Smith’s shoulder is good. He probably wont go deep into the game though, so temper your expectations.

Kyle Hendricks ($7,200): Hendricks is unspectacular, but most of the pitching on this slate is. The main thing that Hendricks has going for him is that he usually keeps the ball in the park. We don’t have a barometer here though since Hendricks dodged SunTrust Park last year. He has still never pitched there. Hendricks is still a risk since he doesn’t get many strikeouts. If he gives up a long ball or three, he may lose you points.

Bargain Pitchers:

Ryan Yarbrough ($6,000): Forget the fact that Yabrough isn’t a traditional starter. His 16-6 record and 3.91 ERA were better than a lot of starters in the league. Yarbrough will come in to face the bottom part of the Rockies order and will likely cruise through five more innings or so. There is some right handed power on this team, but the Rockies start slow because their offense is stagnant on the road and balls don’t start flying out of Coors until it warms up. Yarbrough could be one of the top scorers of the day with this matchup!

David Hess ($5,900): Hess is nothing special. I’m not going to try and sit here and tell you he is. However, Toronto has made him special. Hess started three games against the Jays last year and allowed just 12 hits in 19 innings with the only two runs being tallied on solo homers. The 16 strikeouts look pretty good too. Hess pitched two innings of relief on Thursday, so there’s a chance that he wont throw a lot of pitches. Still, Hess could flirt with 20 DraftKings points in five innings here if his past history against Toronto holds.

Chad Bettis ($5,600): Bettis’s price will remain low as long as he calls Coors Field home, but his terrible overall numbers overshadow a lot of things. Bettis was 5-1 with a 2.88 ERA in ten road starts last year. The inclusion of a DH doesn’t mean much if the team he is facing doesn’t have a lot of power to throw in there in the first place. Bettis is a sneaky play here. He doesn’t rack up strikeouts, but this is a free swinging Rays team.

My picks: Happ, Gray

DraftKings MLB: Main stack options

Chicago Cubs vs. Sean Newcomb:

Sure, the park factor helps Newcomb, but he was still so bad this spring that it pays to throw bats at him until he proves he can get people out. The Cubs are hitting .390 against Newcomb in 41 at bats with three homers and as many runs as strikeouts (eight). Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, and Javy Baez have the homers so far, but Kris Bryant is 4-8. It’s only a matter of time before he takes him out too. If you want to save even more, David Bote is an excellent pick here as well.

Texas Rangers vs. Brad Peacock:

A lot of people are going to use Peacock for the strikeout potential against the Rangers, but this offense isn’t bad. Ask the Cubs pitchers. On top of that, the Rangers are hitting .272 with four homers and 11 runs in 93 at bats against Peacock. I plan on leveraging the Peacock owneship with Rougned Odor, who has two homers against Peacock and is 7-12 lifetime. Ronald Guzman and Joey Gallo have the other homers. I may use all three for a Rangers mini stack.

Houston Astros vs. Drew Smyly:

This offense scuffled a little without Correa, but he’s back now. This lineup is stacked with right handed power, so it’s no surprise that they have hammered Smyly already. The Astros are hitting .311 with two homers and eight runs in only 45 at bats. Springer and Marisnick have the homers, and Michael Brantley is 5-12 against Smyly in his career. Honestly, the hardest part about this is only picking five Astros. There are so many value pitchers that you can just stack the expensive ones if you want.

Oakland Athletics vs. David Price:

You already know I’m crazy, but hear me out. Price has only thrown three innings in live game action this spring. Three. On top of that, the current A’s roster is hitting .262 with four homers and 15 runs in only 107 at bats with only 22 strikeouts. I don’t want to pay five figures for that. You can bet many will though, which makes an A’s stack that much more of an option. Robbie Grossman is just $3,300, is batting leadoff, and is 3-11 with a homer off of Price. Khris Davis, Josh Phegley, and Kendrys Morales have the other homers. Semien and Piscotty have good enough numbers to throw in there too.

Boston Red Sox vs. Aaron Brooks:

This is like a free space for the Boston offense. The only drawback to this stack is that I feel like the ownership will be high. Much like the Yankees stacks of the first series, you have to get creative to gain separation. So yeah, Go with Mookie and J.D., but throw a guy like Brock Holt or Rafael Devers in there as well. Mookie, J.D, Xander, Moreland, and Benintendi are going to be the high owned parts. Don’t be afraid to use a lesser known one or two to separate yourself.

DraftKings MLB daily notes:

Kyle Hendricks gets hit hard by lefties, and SunTrust caters to left handed power. If you aren’t using Hendricks today, you can leverage that ownership with Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies. Nick Markakis is one of the few Braves that has faced Hendricks. He has three RBI off of him in only 11 at bats.

Mike freaking Trout. The alpha and omega of batters tonight. Trout is 31-83(.373) with eight homers, three steals, and 20 RBI in his career against Felix Hernandez. No one else’s stats really stand out against Felix, and I’m not against a stack here, but Trout is the one hitter than should be universally owned tonight. Get your separation elsewhere.

You could take a shot at Yarbrough with Nolan Arenado if you want, but for the price, I think there are much better options. Third base is stacked with great options tonight, so I don’t see a need to reach for Arenado here.

More from FanSided

Just because I’m not looking to attack Chad Bettis doesn’t mean that there aren’t a couple of decent one off options here. Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier are worth a look here. Maybe Ji-Man Choi as well, but a stack isn’t really in your best interest.

Drew Pomeranz has been just good enough against the Dodgers to get me off the stack. Honestly, the numbers are great in a small sample size, but you can’t use a lefty against this lineup, especially with so many other good options. Kike Hernandez is pretty much a lock against lefties. Russell Martin has the only Dodgers homer against Pomeranz so far. Be careful with David Freese. He is just 2-14 against Pomeranz.

The Padres offense is probably going to be below average against right handed pitching, but maybe not against weak right handed pitching. I have no reservations about using Manny Machado or Wil Myers here against Merrill Kelly. Eric Hosmer looks like a really good play as well, and ownership could be low.

If you want to try to leverage the high ownership of Strahm, Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar both homered off of him last year. However, I don’t want a lot of exposure here.

I definitely want some exposure to Chris Stratton. He was below average last year and he doesn’t really strike out anyone. Jay Bruce really stands out here. Edwin and Mitch Haniger are solid plays as well. Tim Beckham is still cheaper than he should be.

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