MLB DFS: DraftKings Pitching Primer – Monday, 4/1

MLB Draftkings: Pitching Primer

Welcome back to the Monday Edition of the MLB Draftkings Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on DraftKings all season long at FantasyCPR.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games on DraftKings. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

It dawned on me that I don’t have a glossary of terms for some of the sabermetrics that I use to analyze pitching each and every day. Here are some of the stats that I use most frequently and a quick explanation.

WHIP = Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched

This is a valuable metric when playing Draftkings as pitchers are penalized for hits and walks unlike the scoring system on FanDuel which only penalizes earned runs.

SIERA = Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average

Just using ERA is a thing of the past and doesn’t really capture the effectiveness of a pitcher that well anymore. SIERA is an ERA estimator that attempts to determine whether or not a pitcher’s actual ERA should have been higher or lower than it was based on how well they pitched.

FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching

This metric attempts to estimate what a pitcher’s ERA would be if they got average results on balls that are put into play. Basically trying to strip away the positive or negative effects of good/bad defense behind them or just bad luck on balls hit weakly that fall in for hits.

SS% = Swinging Strike Percentage

The percentage of pitches that a pitcher gets the opposing hitter to swing and miss. Some people don’t love this stat but I do. It generally correlates well with high strikeout percentages and helps us identify pitchers with an arsenal of pitches that can rack up Ks.

GB% = Ground Ball Percentage

Ground balls are good because they can never be home runs. We want to target pitchers with higher ground ball rates whenever possible.

K% = Strikeout Percentage

Percentage of batters that the pitcher has struck out divided by the total number of hitters they’ve faced.

K/9 = Strikeouts per 9 innings

Obviously, strikeouts are one of the most important DFS stats we are looking for. We typically want to target guys who average more than a K per inning or 9 K/9 or better.

There may be some other terms I use this season. I encourage you if you ever want to dive deeper into pitching to check out FanGraphs and dig into as many stats as you want. Your head will spin, it’s so much fun!

MLB Draftkings: First Look

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here usually accompanied by Vegas odds. I like taking the Vegas odds, park factors, and home/road splits into account when determining my picks.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Today we a 7-game main slate that locks at 7:05.  Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first, the home pitcher listed second, and the Vegas odds in parentheses.

Kyle Hendricks (-115) vs. Sean Newcomb

Steven Matz (-135) vs. Caleb Smith 

Chad Betts vs. Ryan Yarbrough

David Hess vs. Sean Reid-Foley (-185)

Brad Peacock (-160) vs. Drew Smyly

David Price (-140) vs. Aaron Brooks

Chris Stratton vs. Felix Hernandez (-115)

Drew Pomeranz vs. Julio Urias (-210)

Merrill Kelly vs. Matt Strahm (-165)

Our cover boy Julio Urias is the biggest favorite on the slate at home, followed by second-year pitcher Sean Reid-Foley and converted reliever Matt Strahm. If you don’t recognize half the names on this list, that’s okay, you’re not alone. We are seeing the fourth or fifth starters for each team and so it’s going to be slim pickings today.

MLB Draftkings: Cash Game Aces

Julio Urias (8.7k) vs. San Diego

You know it’s a thin day at pitcher when the top cash game option is a pitcher who barely even pitched last season. Urias was once the top pitching prospect in the Dodgers organization before an arm injury derailed his career back in 2017. He pitched very well in Spring Training, fanning 15 batters in 15 innings while only allowing 5 hits and 2 earned runs.

The matchup against the Giants is extremely appealing. They’ve scored 5 runs in their first four games and their offense looks anemic. Dodgers’ starters are always a bit of gamble as manager Dave Roberts is known to have a short leash on his starters, but 5-6 quality innings from Urias is a good bet in this matchup and again, our options are limited.

Matt Strahm (9.2k) vs. Arizona

Strahm has the best strikeout upside on the slate tonight and his price feels high for a converted reliever, but DK dynamic pricing realized that he was one of the best options on the slate, unlike FanDuel that still has him priced at 6.4k. Strahm had a fantastic Spring, whiffing 25 batters in 15 innings and should be stretched out enough to push for 6 innings tonight. He faces a Diamondbacks team that whiffed 25% of the time last season and therefore the strikeout ceiling is huge tonight.

MLB Draftkings: GPP and SP2

Brad Peacock (7.9k) @ Texas

Peacock is rejoining the Astros rotation this season. He started 21 games for Houston in 2017 but worked out of the pen last year in all of his appearances except one start. He’s been effective the last two years both as a starter and a reliever. He’s flashed major K-upside with 11 K/9 in 2017 and then 13 K/9 as a reliever last year. He’s pitched well in Spring training, too.

The spot here is very much a boom/bust one. Texas strikes out a lot, but also has a ton of power in their lineup and the ballpark favors offense quite a bit. There were 21 runs scored there in last night’s game with the Cubs and the park always favors the bat. But I definitely want to take a shot on him, considering the lack of alternatives that we have available.

Caleb Smith (7.6k) vs. Mets

Here we have another risky option in Caleb Smith. We’re chasing strikeout upside here as Smith averaged 10 K/9 last season in 16 starts before finishing the season on the disabled list. He has had trouble with walks in the past and he is a fly-ball pitcher, but I love his upside against the Mets at home today. Their power is mainly left-handed and the big ballpark in Miami should help Smith keep the ball in the yard.

MLB Draftkings: Gas Can of the Night

Chris Stratton vs. Seattle

Stratton made 26 starts for the Giants last season and wasn’t all the bad to begin the year. But he became increasingly mediocre as the year went on and ended with 2018 campaign with an ERA over 5 and a WHIP over 1.4.

His strikeout sank to 17% and his hard contact rate rose all the way to 41%. He was as hittable as they come. He has the unfortunate task of making his first start for the Angels this season against the hottest offense in baseball – the Seattle Mariners. The M’s have scored 48 runs in their first six games and their offense is firing on all cylinders.

Stratton allowed a wOBA of .355 to left-handers and .319 to righties, too. I like pretty much all these hitters in the Seattle lineup and they’ll probably be my favorite offense to stack up multiple different ways tonight.

I definitely like playing hot offenses in MLB and there’s no one hotter than Seattle right now. Fire them up against Stratton, he doesn’t stand much of a chance at slowing them down.

MLB Draftkings: Rankings and Review

I like to wrap up the Pitching Primer every day with my rankings and a brief discussion of strategy for both cash game and GPP contests.

My favorite pairing for cash games is Urias-Strahm and their salaries are reasonable enough that they leave you with 4k per player for the rest of your roster.

If you are looking for fit a few more bats in GPPs then pairing either Urias or Strahm with Peacock or Smith makes a lot of sense. A Smith-Peacock pairing gives you the most cap space for bats, but both of those pitchers come with a good amount of risk tonight.

Cash Game Rankings

1. Urias
2. Strahm
3. Smith

GPP Rankings

1. Strahm
2. Smith
3. Peacock

As always, thanks for reading the Draftkings pitching primer! Make sure you check out the other great MLB DFS content from the rest of our FantasyCPR writers and good luck in your contests tonight!