MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday, April – April Foley’s
Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Sunday’s MLB DFS slate saw winning GPP rosters just below the 200 fantasy point mark as a big day from Trea Turner, who blasted two HR’s and put up 39 fantasy points at only 5% ownership was the key cog in winning lineups. Pitching once again dominated the top of the leader board with four of the top seven raw point plays being pitchers – although not the ones you may have thought heading into the day as Sandy Alcantara, Lucas Giolito, Yonny Chirinos and Trevor Williams were the highest scoring arms on the slate.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Monday Pitching Breakdown:
Monday’s MLB slate has some early action on April Fool’s Day with a pair of afternoon games and two 6:40PM EST starts – all of which are excluded from the Main Slate on FantasyDraft which focuses on 9 games starting at 7:07PM EST.
At first glance the pitching options on this slate are quite underwhelming with David Price ($19.6K) the lone “big name” of the pitching options available and will likely end up being popular as a result of his name value alone. Here is the thing – take the name out of it for a second, would you really pay nearly $20K for a guy with a 24.5% K rate and a swinging strike rate under 10% last year? This is a slate where I think you are going to have to dig deep for your pitcher to find the right one and with Price’s name recognition, he could become the chalk SP1 against a powerful Oakland team that could give us great leverage if fading Price in GPP’s.
Matt Strahm ($18K) is the second highest priced arm on the slate, not something frankly I expected to see just a few days into MLB DFS, but this is not a name we should simply gloss over. Strahm has been primarily used as a bullpen arm historically but after winning a spot in the Padres rotation, this start against Arizona gives us a chance to capitalize on a 2019 sleeper who may not yet have the name recognition. In 20 innings during spring training, Strahm had an impressive 25:5 KK:BB ratio and has a strong 28 K rate through the first 120 innings at the major league level.
The pricing on the Padres arms early in the season are aggressive on FantasyDraft, as we saw highly touted prospect Chris Paddack at $18.8K which left him owned in under 10% of GPP lineups. Strahm is nowhere near the prospect level Paddack is, so my guess is the price alone keeps the ownership low here again on Monday.
If you want a deep dive into Strahm, I would highly recommend this read from FanGraphs as they detail the four pitch repertoire that the left-hander has with an elevated fastball that results in a fly ball heavy approach in getting batters out. The only drawback with Strahm is that we really don’t know how deep he could go into this game and we saw San Diego pull Paddack Sunday after only 79 pitches so the risk is high paying this freight.
Speaking of pitchers with high K upside and massive risk they could get pulled at any minute – welcome to the party Julio Urias ($16.9K). Urias has dominant strikeout ability and steps to the mound as a -200 home favorite against an awful San Francisco lineup that just got destroyed by the Padres starting staff – where Paddack, Lucchesi and Lauer all went for 20+ fantasy points and even a punt play like Nick Margevicius put up over 16 FPTS. Urias has the raw potential to put up a number comparable to all these Padres arms but much like with Strahm, the only risk is that the Dodgers limit his innings and pitch count which could cap his upside.
MLB DFS – Pitching Pivots:
Brad Peacock ($15K) looks like the best option in the mid-tier against Texas but be wary of simply trusting the 2018 numbers when locking him in. Sure, the 35% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate are tempting against Texas but Peacock did that damage entirely out of the pen and is now transitioning into a starters role much like Strahm is.
Now in 2018 with a mixed role as starter/reliever, Peacock did have a 29% K rate but when you dig back through his numbers he never had K %’s at any level this high and with Peacock being a two pitch arm, you wonder if the success will translate to the starting rotation when teams get an extended look at him on the mound.
In many ways Peacock and Strahm are the same kind of choices here – high K arms that have flourished in relievers role now moving into the starting rotation. The pricing difference is big enough where you can make the case that Peacock is the better point per dollar play but Strahm has more quality pitches he can rely on – so depending on your price point, I think you can make the argument for either.
Sean Reid-Foley ($16.3K) made seven starts for Toronto last season, racking up a strong 28% K rate and 12% swinging strike rate and steps to the mound as a -175 home favorite against the Orioles on today’s slate. There is some serious upside here with Reid-Foley – just look back at last season where he had two starts with 10K’s which included a game against the Marlins and a game against the Yankees in Yankee stadium. With two starts of 30+ fantasy points in only seven outings, there is reason to believe this upside is real when you recognize that he has a 27-29% K rate in AA/AAA before making it to the big leagues.
Chad Bettis ($11.1K) is not a K arm by any means as his 16% K rate at the major league level will support but this is a ground ball inducing machine who had a strong 13:5 KK:BB ration in 16 spring innings. Bettis started the season in 2018 really strong before blister issues knocked him out of the rotation and into a bullpen role but look back at those first seven starts before injury.
In 6 of the 7 starts he have up 2 ER or fewer, going 7+ innings in 4 of 7 starts with a 2:1 KK: BB ratio. This Rays line-up has struck out the most times per game of any team so far this early season, they have a .160 ISO against RHP based off their 2018 numbers and a 21% K rate. Bettis has the ability to limit hard contact and induce ground balls which profiles really well against a TB lineup that had a 45% GB rate in 2018 versus RHP
MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:
One of the ways I think you can attack this slate is to load up on bats and pay down at starting pitcher and there are two offenses that jump off the page here today.
First, is the Los Angeles Dodgers who feel entirely too cheap and become a prime stacking option that you can pair well even if paying up for your SP options. LHP Drew Pomeranz will have to navigate this right-handed heavy lineup which could spell trouble for him considering he gave up a .248 ISO to RHB in 2018 with a 1.88 HR/9. Go ahead and load up on the Dodgers RHB here today – with the focus on A.J. Pollock and Justin Turner who have .243 ISO marks against LHP since the start of the 2018 season.
The stack that I think I want to prioritize here today is the Chicago Cubs – which may seem odd considering they have only a 4.1 run projection which puts them 9th of all teams on tonight’s slate but this spot against LHP Sean Newcomb is enticing.
Newcomb is a pitcher who struggled with control last season to the tune of a 12% BB rate, while giving up a 35% HC rate and pitching to an ERA that was materially under his 4.5 xFIP which tells us regression is coming. That regression seemingly hit in spring training as Newcomb struggled to a 5+ ERA in 21 IP, giving up 12 ER and walking 15 batters while striking out only 14.
In a spot like this where you are picking on control, it makes sense to go hard after the stack as opposed to playing one-offs. If you play Anthony Rizzo or Kris Bryant and Newcomb walks them, you are not maximizing your point output but stack Javier Baez and Wilson Contreras around them and those walks, become deep counts, long innings and crooked numbers which drive your stack forward.
The low(er) run total for the Cubs may keep the ownership a tad lower here but with guys like Kris Bryant, Wilson Contreras and Javier Baez all sporting .200+ ISO marks against LHP in 2018, this is a dangerous high upside stack. Do not be afraid to add Anthony Rizzo to this stack as Newcomb gave up a .225 ISO and 40% hard contact rate to LHB last season!
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup!
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
P: Chad Bettis
IF: Justin Turner
IF: Kris Bryant
IF: Javier Baez
OF: A.J. Pollock
OF: Mike Trout
OF: Mookie Betts
UTIL: Anthony Rizzo
UTIL: Wilson Contreras
Slate Overview: The one thing I realized after digging into this slate is that pitching is going to be a mine field to maneuver through tonight. Although I think you can make strong cases for arms like Strahm, Urias and Peacock, there is also substantial risk that these arms fail to go deep enough to deliver “must have totals” and along with David Price, it feels like the ownership will be highly concentrated on that group.
So with that context, can we pivot at pitcher, go cheaper and let our bats do the talking with a Dodgers/Cubs stack that uses Mookie Betts and Mike Trout as one-offs.
Good luck tonight all – make sure to keep an eye on those lineups as they are announced and feel free to hit me up on Twitter @2LockSports with any questions.
Next. DraftKings MLB Picks - Monday, April 1. dark
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, DraftKings and FanDuel each and every day!