DraftKings MLB Main Picks April 2: It’s pronounced Key-Kay
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Main Picks April 2: It’s pronounced Key-Kay
There are 12 games in major league baseball today, but the two earlier first pitches have been left off in favor of an early tournament so that leaves us with ten games for the main DraftKings MLB tournaments. We aren’t missing much in those first two games except we do lose Masahiro Tanaka against the Tigers. That’s unfortunate!
However, since most teams are on their sixth games, we have plenty of aces in action tonight. Are any of them worth the premium price? Let’s get started and take a look!
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The early slate went fairly well, but a late charge by the Cardinals dropped me out of the money. David Hess hit big for me in two of the four lineups, but one pairing with Strahm was doomed. One did well enough to get into the top 5000.
There is a good rain chance in Washington, but it looks like it should clear out in enough time for a late start to get this game in. We’ll have to keep a close eye on that one.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
For you first time players, if you would like a free $10 ticket on DraftKings, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more!
DraftKings MLB Main Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Max Scherzer ($11,800): If you want domination, you’ve come to the right place! The Phillies are hitting just .185 against Scherzer in 205 at bats with six homers and 15 runs to go with 69 strikeouts. The wild card here could be Bryce Harper. He’s heading back to D.C. already, and he has to face arguably the best pitcher in baseball upon his return. That’s going to be the narrative going into this game, but I give the advantage to Max here. I wouldn’t shy away from using him.
Jose Berrios ($9,700): Berrios looked the part of staff ace against Cleveland in the opener. Now comes a Royals team that Berrios pitched well against last year. Berrios was 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 26 innings against Kanas City last year, good for an average of 23.3 DraftKings points in his four starts. The Royals didn’t homer off of him either. Berrios has some of the best upside of the night. Now the bad news: Berrios has a 5.40 ERA in five career starts at Kaufmann Stadium without a decision in any of those games.
Blake Snell ($9,500): Snellzilla was roughed up by the Astros in the opener, but considering his outstanding home numbers, I’m going back to the well here. Snell has only faced the Rockies once. He dominated, allowing just one hit in six innings with nine strikeouts. I’m expecting tonight to be something close to that. The Rockies strike out a LOT. This is going to be a big day for Snell!
Middle Tier:
Marcus Stroman ($8,300): Stroman was brilliant on opening day, and will get another chance to be here. The Orioles’ offense has been much better than it should be so far, and they are hitting .286 against Stroman over 49 at bats. The O’s just have nothing to show for it. They only have one homer and four runs while striking out 12 times. That’s decent strikeout upside for Stroman. He is a suitable SP2 tonight, but I don’t think I would fade an upper tier guy for him.
Kyle Freeland ($7,900): Freeland was strong in the opener against the Marlins, and I don’t really see where the Rays are any better against left handed pitching. They may actually be worse. Freeland looks cheap here for the matchup considering his first start went so well.
Zack Greinke ($7,600): As cheap as Freeland looks, Greinke has the most baffling price on the slate. Yes, he was rocked by his former team in the opener, but facing a righty heavy Padres lineup in his second start is a huge reprieve. The Padres are only hitting .235 with five homers and 11 runs with 33 strikeouts in 136 at bats against Greinke. Those aren’t superb stats, but compared with the price they are. Greinke may be the best price per dollar play out there tonight.
Bargain Pitchers:
Marco Gonzales ($5,900): First off, Gonzales doesn’t have great numbers against the Angels. They are hitting .291 against him in 86 at bats. Furthermore, Mike Trout has hammered him. So why am I using him? Because the eye test trumps past stats. No one is going to pitch to Trout until they have to. That has been very evident. Opposing teams aren’t worried about anyone else in that lineup. Avoid Trout, get the rest out, rinse, repeat. I’m bucking past stats here. That Angels offense is fool’s gold right now. The real gold is in using pitchers, particularly lefties, against them.
Jason Vargas ($5,600): The strikeout numbers aren’t great, but we aren’t expecting great if we are dredging the bottom for pitchers. Vargas picked up 51.4 DraftKings points in his two starts against Miami last year, both in CitiField which is more hitter friendly than Marlins Park. There is good upside here, especially when you consider the 14 strikeouts Vargas had in 11 innings.
My picks: Berrios, Vargas; Greinke, Berrios
DraftKings MLB: Main stack options
Washington Nationals vs. Zach Eflin:
Eflin has yet to make it through five innings in a start in Nationals Park in his career. Needless to say, this team has hit him well, but not exactly hard. No one has homered off of him, they just have a .391 lifetime average. Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Matt Adams seem like the best places to attack here. Adam Eaton gets a prime slot in the order and Anthony Rendon is always dangerous if you want to make this a full stack.
Houston Astros vs. Shelby Miller:
The Astros bats woke up last night, and they aren’t done. Not when Texas is throwing a soft tossing righty who doesn’t strike anyone out. Josh Reddick has the best history against Miller so far, so start the stack with him. You want to make sure to get Jake Marisnick in there too. After that, any of Altuve, Springer, Correa, or Michael Brantley will do.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Madison Bumgarner:
Yeah, MadBum was solid in the opener. Solid against the Padres equals getting shelled by a team like the Dodgers. The Dodgers are hitting .300 with 14 homers and 31 runs in 243 at bats with only 54 strikeouts. Of course, Kike Hernandez is at the top of the list. He is 19-39(.487) with four homers and eight RBI against MadBum. LOCK HIM IN! Justin Turner also has four homers against Bumgarner. A.J. Pollock has three. Even Joc Pederson has one. So do David Freese and Austin Barnes. The only one to stay away from is Chris Taylor, who is just 1-14 against MadBum.
Boston Red Sox vs. Mike Fiers:
The Red Sox are hitting .290 against Fiers is a pretty small sample size. Though Boston’s pitching has been awful – as in tying a major league record for the most homers allowed during the first five games of the season – the offense has actually been pretty good until last night. However, they are expensive. With so much good pitching out there, it’s hard to get a worthwhile Boston stack going and still have a good staff. If you are foregoing pitching though, There’s a lot to like here. J.D. Martinez has homered twice off of Fiers already, so you have to start with him. Devers. Xander Bogaerts, and Mitch Moreland are with a look as well. I do like Mookie, but he is slumping to start the year.
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
I don’t trust the Blue Jays offense enough to do a full on stack, especially since they really haven’t hit Andrew Cashner that well. Most of them anyway. Randal Grichuk has homered twice off of Cashner. Justin Smoak has the other, but it is his only hit in 15 tries. Kevin Pillar and his 6-13 mark are a much safer play.
I’m not sold enough on the Mets to stack just yet, but I really like Robinson Cano against Jose Urena. Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are worth a look as well since they have both homered off of him.
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If you want to leverage Scherzer owners, there are a couple of places to try besides the obvious Bryce Harper one. Odubel Herrera is 14-41(.341) with two homers and five RBI against Scherzer. Other new Phillies Andrew McCutchen , Jean Segura, and J.T. Realmuto have also homered off of Scherzer, as has Nick Williams. I wouldn’t go crazy though. Only Herrera carries a good average against Mad Max.
Jonathan Villar has the only homer for the Orioles off of Marcus Stroman. I don’t want any exposure here, but for those of you that do, Villar is reasonably priced for the most part.
Freeland isn’t a guy that gives up a lot of home runs, but Mike Zunino hits lefties pretty well. Avi Garcia is worth a look too, but I think there are better places to attack with prices in the low $4,000’s.
As we saw last year, stacking against Jason Vargas isn’t always a good idea. Today is one of those days against the weak hitting Marlins in a pitcher’s park. Vargas pitched well against the Marlins last year, but for his price point, I think we can do better than using a low strikeout arm. This is the time to go after him with the likes of Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson. Maybe even Lewis Brinson if you’re paying up for pitchers.
A lot of people are on Ryu, and I get it. The Giants offense is off to a rough start. However, Ryu walks a lot of batters and doesn’t go deep into games, so I think he’s overpriced. On top of that, the current Giants are hitting .267 against him in 146 at bats. Again, cause for concern. So are the 17 runs and 13-20 walk to strikeout ratio. I’d rather leverage this with Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford, the two Giants who have hit Ryu the best.
Stacking against Justin Verlander is probably not going to make you a very rich man, but strikeouts don’t count against you on DraftKings. Shin-Soo Choo has homered three times off of Verlander, but is only hitting .190 in 79 at bats. Asdrubal Cabrera has only homered once, but he is at least hitting .258.
Trevor Cahill doesn’t have bad numbers against the Mariners, but it seems foolish to ignore the hottest offense in baseball. I’m a big fan of Tim Beckham on the cheap, along with Omar Narvaez. Jay Bruce‘s rebirth is in full effect too.
I don’t trust the Arizona offense right now, but the Diamondbacks hit Lauer well last year. Not hard, but well. Wilmer Flores is definitely on my radar here for his work against lefties. Eduardo Escobar is another solid option.
I’m not necessarily advocating a stack against Chris Sale, but until his velocity returns, it’s worth exploring hitters against him because they are so cheap. For instance, Kendrys Morales is 11-38(.289) with three homers and seven RBI against Sale, and he is just $3,500. Matt Chapman and the red hot Khris Davis are worth a look too.
I mentioned above how well Greinke has done against the Padres, but if you are looking to leverage ownership, Manuel Margot is an impressive 5-8 with a homer against Greinke so far. Hunter Renfroe is 4-12 with a homer and three RBI, and both come relatively cheap.
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