DraftKings PGA: 2019 Valero Texas Open
DraftKings PGA: 2019 Valero Texas Open
The WGC Dell Match Play was a fun change-of-pace for a grueling DraftKings PGA Tour schedule. The top-60 golfers in the world went head-to-head and Kevin Kisner came away victorious. Odd right? Kisner did just enough the entire week. Francesco Molinari played the best golf of the week, but Kisner came out on top in all of his matches, so he took home the trophy. But enough of that, this week we return to a familiar format for the Valero Texas Open.
The Tour stays in Texas for another week, moving from Austin to San Antonio. TPC San Antonio has hosted this tournament since 2010. The par-72 course plays over 7,400 yards, challenging golfers with difficult to hit fairways and greens. If the wind is in full effect this weekend, the course will play even more difficult.
Andrew Landry is the defending champion of the Valero Texas Open, shooting a final round 68 to hold off Sean O’Hair and Trey Mullinax. Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott were notable names that missed the cut in 2018. Kevin Chappell won the 2017 edition over Brooks Koepka, while Charley Hoffman fended off Patrick Reed in 2016.
TPC San Antonio can favor bombers or accuracy golfers. It all depends upon the weather and difficult the course conditions are. Approach and putting are the two most influential stats to look at this week, as top-10 golfers at this event have gained approximately 1 stroke against the field in each of these stats. I will also be favoring par 5 scoring and fairways gained this week, as those stats have correlated with top-10 finishes.
Key Stats
Approach Gained
Ball striking Gained
Short Game Gained
Bermuda Gained
Par 5 Gained
Fairways Gained
As always, you should be building your own models. FantasyNational.com and FutureOfFantasy.com are great tools to use.
DraftKings PGA: 2019 Valero Texas Open – Picks
$10,800 Tony Finau
I assume Tony Finau will be popular this week. Although his popularity in DFS has dropped precipitously since he was the DFS darling of last year, he is one of the top golfers in the field and people will recognize. Finau is playing much better golf of late, and his results are beginning to show that. In a weak field, I love Finau to rise to the top.
Finau ranks 6th in ball striking gained and 4th in putting gained over his last 12 rounds. His approach game is trending up, and he is one of the best par-5 scorers in the field. Tony finished tied for 3rd place in 2017, the last time he played this event.
$9,800 Billy Horschel
Horschel is in solid form, he just seems to have a below average rounds each tournament. Even with that, he has yet to miss a cut this season.
Horschel seems to love the course and he sets up well in my model. Horschel may not strike his irons as pure as some of the golfers that sit atop my model, but he has his flat stick working (1st in SG:Putting) and the irons have been solid (25th SG:Approach). Horschel is a solid bet to make the cut, and his upside here when he makes the cut has been T11, T4 and solo 3rd in 3 of his last 4 attempts.
$9,600 Jim Furyk
Furyk has been hovering around the top of my model the past few tournaments, and this time he earned the top spot. That means Jim Furyk is playing some really good golf.
Furyk ranks number one in Fairways Gained, one in Strokes Gained Total, 2nd in Short Game, and 3rd in approach. No wonder why he rates out number one in my model. Furyk has a solid course history here too, finishing 3rd and 6th in 2013 and 2014 while making 4 consecutive cuts at this event since The Valero moved to TPC San Antonio.
DraftKings PGA: 2019 Valero Texas Open – Values
$8,400 Ryan Palmer
I am not a big Ryan Palmer fan, but this guy seems to always play well in Texas. I think it is because there is not a lot of water and his superior ball-striking cuts through the wind. At this tournament, Palmer MC’d last year, but had finishes of T6, T4, T6 the three years prior.
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He checks the box in approach and DraftKings scoring gained over his last 12 and 36 rounds. The scary aspect to Palmer’s game is his potential to card big numbers. If he can limit those this week, his upside is immense.
$7,300 Dylan Frittelli
The University of Texas alum is playing better golf of late, and a golfer that I cannot fade at this price tag. Frittelli is not leading the field in any one category, but is solid across the board in my model, ranking 21st. His upside is admittedly not amazing, but I trust him to make the cut and that is all you can ask for from a near minimum-priced golfer. Frittelli finished T20 here last year.
7,100 Chris Kirk
Kirk is playing well and he has a great history at this event. The guy pure’s his irons, and has been playing better around the greens than he typically does. When I saw this price I did a double take. I will play a lot of Chris Kirk this week.
At this event, Kirk has 3 top-15’s the last 4 years. He checks the box in par-5 scoring (15th in the field), approach (24th), and his short game has been money (7th).
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