The Auburn Tigers are in the Final Four for the first time in school history, and the Virginia Cavaliers in for the first time since 1984. Experience is not on either team’s side here.
Virginia is the lone remaining one seed but they almost didn’t make it. It took a buzzer beater from Mamadi Diakite at the end of regulation against Purdue in the Elite Eight to even send that game to overtime before the Cavaliers eventually won in overtime.
Auburn got here by doing something that no matter the year seems relatively impossible. They’ve beaten Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky all in a row to get to this point. Nevermind the fact that Kansas just wasn’t as good as them, but to then turn around and beat North Carolina and then Kentucky is nothing short of incredible.
This game is going to be a battle of paces. Auburn plays at an up and down pace, and want to get as many possessions as possible out of this game. Virginia, on the other hand, plays at the slowest pace in the country and execute offensively better than just about anyone. Late shock clock situations don’t affect the team, but it will affect their opponent because it’s 2019 and who really uses the entire shock clock anymore?
Whichever team gets the pace of the game more to their liking will have the advantage without question. The only difference is that Virginia can survive at Auburn’s pace because they execute so well and never beat themselves. As for Auburn, it’s questionable whether that can survive at Virginia’s pace because they wouldn’t have as many possessions to work with. And at the rate, they shoot the three ball if they aren’t knocking them down then it would really put them in a bind against a team that gets stop like Virginia.
Odds
Virginia opens as 5.5-point favorites with each team being moneyline favorites depending on the site you bet on. Right now Auburn has received nearly 80 percent of the early spread bets which could cause the line to drop as we get closer to Saturday.
That being said underdogs don’t usually cover the spread this late in the tournament, but given the close games, Virginia has played this tournament it would make sense why sharps would bet on Auburn early on.
Lower-seeded teams are only 5-24 straight up since 2005. So if you’re on a site that has Virginia as a money line underdog it might good to grab them as early as possible before the line changes to get the best odds, because we all want more money right?
The spread is in all likelihood going to change by the time we reach Saturday. It probably won’t drop down to 2.5, but don’t be surprised if it gets all the way down the 3.5 points which would be a prime spot to grab Virginia. Late game free throws always come into play and are usually the difference between teams covering the spread or not.
Prediction
It seems at this point as if destiny is on both teams side. Auburn is going to rally around the injury to Chuma Okeke and use it their motivation against Virginia. As for Virginia they’re a year removed from losing to a 16-seed, and as Tony Bennett told them after the loss they’ve owned it and now they’re were they believe they’re supposed to be.
This will be a battle of who can control the pace of the game, but that’s not enough for Auburn. Virginia can play at any pace because they execute better than just about anybody in the country.If this game is played at Cavaliers’ slow pace then it’s 100 percent advantage Virginia because it takes away possessions from Auburn. The Tigers want to use their speed and play an up and down game. Jared Harper and Bryce Brown against Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy will be the matchup to watch for.
Whichever set of guards can win that battle will give their team an added advantage. Jerome has been the MVP of the Cavaliers and they’ll need him to be at his best to beat Auburn.
In the end, I think Virginia punches their ticket to the title game. They’re extremely well coached and they’re not going to beat themselves. If they play the way they’ve played all tournament long then they’ll be just fine.