After slaying top seeds to reach the Final Four, Texas Tech and Michigan State are set to square off on Saturday with a trip to the National Championship game on the line.
This Final Four features matchups that few in the country predicted, with the showdown between Michigan State and Texas Tech being one of the unlikeliest pairings entering the NCAA Tournament. By toppling top seeds Gonzaga and Duke respectively, the Red Raiders and Spartans busted brackets nationwide en route to this matchup.
Let’s take a quick look at each side for a preview of what to expect in this game.
Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are known for one thing, and that’s their outstanding defense. After winning a share of the Big 12’s regular season title, Texas Tech was upset in their first Big 12 tournament game against lowly West Virginia, which likely knocked them off the 2-line in the tournament.
The selection committee gave Texas Tech a 3-seed in the West Region, and they easily advanced past Northern Kentucky to a second round showdown with the high-flying Buffalo Bulls. The Bulls averaged 85 points per game during the regular season, but the Red Raiders held them to just 58 to get to the Sweet 16.
Next up was a showdown with Michigan, which had a wealth of tournament experience thanks to their run to the title game a year ago, but Texas Tech smothered the Wolverines’ low-wattage offense to advance to a matchup with Gonzaga. That game was a thriller, with both sides refusing to give up, but in the end, the Red Raiders made enough plays to advance to the Final Four.
While Texas Tech is known for its outstanding defense, which gives up only 59 points per game, they also feature a future lottery pick in guard Jarrett Culver. He averaged 21.5 points per game during the NCAA Tournament and recorded a double-double in their win over Buffalo, so stopping Culver will be the key for the Spartans.
Michigan State
After three straight first weekend exits in the NCAA Tournament, there weren’t a ton of expectations for the Spartans entering the regular season. Tom Izzo’s team still featured a core of juniors Cassius Winston, Joshua Langford, and Nick Ward, but Langford was lost for the year early in conference play while Ward missed a month with a broken hand.
That put the team pretty much into Winston’s hands, and he delivered for the Spartans, guiding them to the Big Ten’s regular season and tournament titles. The selection committee gave the Spartans a 2-seed in the East Region, putting them in the path of Duke and their collection of fabulous freshmen headlined by Zion Williamson.
Michigan State had a massive scare in its first game, when 15-seed Bradley gave them all they could handle, leading to an Izzo meltdown towards freshman Aaron Henry in the middle of a 10-0 Spartans’ run. That game appears to have been a turning point for Michigan State, which cruised past Minnesota and LSU to get to their showdown with Duke.
The Blue Devils have had Michigan State’s number over the years, with Mike Krzyzewski holding an 11-1 record against Izzo entering the game, but Winston and the Spartans weren’t intimidated at all. While Williamson put up his numbers, the rest of the team was held in check as Michigan State escaped with a 68-67 win to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2015.
Michigan State is a well-balanced team that can defend, rebound, and shoot very well but the key to everything is Winston, the Big Ten’s Player of the Year. Winston can not only score in bunches but also create for his teammates as well with his precision passing, so containing Winston is essential for the Red Raiders.
How to bet
The oddsmakers think this will be a tight game, installing Michigan State as 2.5-point favorites to open the betting on Sunday night. This isn’t shocking since both teams play outstanding defense and feature deep rosters, so a blowout for either team is extremely unlikely. If you have a gut feeling on which team will win the game, it’s wiser to just make the bet rather than hope the Red Raiders cover a small spread.
Prediction
This contest should be extremely tight, and Culver may be the best player on the floor, but it’s hard to bet against Michigan State here. The Spartans not only topped the best team in the field in Duke, but they have also shown the ability to beat more talented rosters already by dismantling LSU in the Sweet 16.
Izzo also has a huge coaching advantage over Chris Beard, who has never been this far before, while Michigan State is in its eighth Final Four under the Hall of Fame coach. This game definitely has rock fight potential, but bet on Izzo and the Spartans to find a way through.
Pick
Michigan State 65, Texas Tech 61