MLB Bets To Win For Tuesday April 2nd – Stick With The Trends
By John Fazio
Good day and greetings from MLB Bets central. We have some interesting underdog plays today as early season trends begin to take shape.
Monday MLB bets split the 2 predicted games gaining small juice. Using each game as 1 unit and allowing for lay and take, the system is now up +6.25 units on the season.
In general, MLB bets likes to ride the early season trends as most of the public tries to force last years results into the line. There are good and great teams from last year under-performing and the system uses this to garner value against teams that should not be favored.
That said, let’s see if MLB bets can produce another winning day. All times Eastern.
Tigers (+2.23) oust the Yankees, 6:35 pm
Detroit does not have the superior team here but they do have the superior pitching match-up. Their starter, Jordan Zimmermann, pitched on opening day at Toronto and threw 7 innings of 1 hit no run ball, striking out 4 while walking none.
New York starter Masahiro Tanaka pitched very well also, but this pairing does not translate into this big of a Yankee favorite. Early in the season too many variables and unanswered questions remain, and MLB bets wants to be on the side of the big plus money in these spots.
Monday MLB bets had the Tigers and lost 1-3, being out hit 5-2. These games are too close to warrant laying this much juice, therefore the system says take the dog.
Phillies (+1.83) whip the Nationals, 7:05 pm
Washington is way too tall a favorite this early in the season in this spot. Max Scherzer pitched a very good game last time out and went fairly deep into the game, that is true.
However let’s look at the team results even with this great pitcher on the hill. Over his last 10 starts including opening day this season, the Nationals with Max Scherzer starting have 3 wins, 3 losses and 4 no decisions.
MLB bets looks at this situation and takes the quality underdog every time. Philadelphia is 3-0 to start the season and is certainly no push-over tonight. Let’s give the superior team a chance at nearly 2-1 in our favor to overcome the better pitching match-up.
MLB Bets To Win – Orioles subdue Blue Jays
Baltimore (+1.87) wins again over Toronto, 7:07 pm
If it were not for last years results, the 3-1 start by Baltimore would not be a surprise. The Orioles have been an off-and-on contender for a long time and had an unusually bad 2018, by all counts not indicative of the talent on the team.
Toronto is starting off this season slightly on the negative side, losing Monday to the Birds as a 1.75 favorite. MLB bets sees the dog as value today. The difference here is in the starting pitchers.
On opening day, Marcus Stroman pitched very well for Toronto while Andrew Cashner got roughed up by the Yankees. Still, this is far from a gimme as the line would suggest. Should Toronto not be able to muster a lead in the first 5 innings, this game will be a pick.
MLB bets gives Baltimore the nod tonight. Let the trend continue.
Mets (-1.22) punish the Marlins, 7:10 pm
New York has played better than expected and are a small favorite on the road in the same fashion as yesterday when they pounded the Marlins. There is reason to expect the same today.
Jason Vargas makes his first start of the season today. He had a good spring training and in no way should be discounted because he is the Mets 5th starter in the rotation.
Jose Urena for the Marlins did start on opening day and pitched poorly, not being able to complete 5 innings while allowing 6 runs, 5 of them earned. The Miami defense is not the best in the league either.
MLB bets says this early season trend is good enough to cover the small lay. The road factor should not hurt the Mets in this spot tonight.
MLB Bets To Win – A’s Embarrass Red Sox again
Oakland (+1.61) humbles Boston, 10:07 pm
Here we go again betting against Boston and what a boon it has been these first 4 games. The Sox are 1-3 overall and more importantly have been a big favorite. The same applies again tonight and the system wants to stay with the trend.
Two things have to happen for Boston to be a legitimate 1.71 favorite. Firstly, starter Chris Sale has to pitch a lot better. On opening day he completed 3 innings giving up 7 earned runs.
It’s too easy of a solution to believe he is a great pitcher, had a bad day, and should get back on track and pitch great tonight. It is true when Sale is on, he can be lights out with many strikeouts to his credit. However when he is bad, he is so bad that his team cannot overcome the deficit.
Secondly, Boston needs to play better as a team. Their only win came because of unearned runs. Having a starter with a 21 ERA and a team that should be 0-4 does not translate into being a moderate to large favorite. They lost yesterday 7-0.
MLB bets does not care how good Boston was last year or that they are projected to be good again. It cares about what is going on right now. Go Oakland.
San Francisco (+1.62) levels Los Angeles, 10:10 pm : 1/2 the wager on +1 1/2 runs
The Giants play against their long time rivals the Dodgers after winning yesterday in this venue as a big dog. There is no reason to think the same result cannot happen again today as a slightly smaller dog.
Madison Bumgarner started on opening day for San Francisco hurling 7 complete innings allowing 2 runs with 9 strikeouts and 1 walk. Nothing to be ashamed of there; who else does anyone want pitching for them at a dog of this price?
On the Dodgers side, Hyun-Jin Ryu pitched just as well opening day. MLB bets sees this as a close low scoring game and wants the run line protection for 1/2 the wager.
As of this overnight writing, and assuming 1 unit equals $100, the wager would look like this:
San Francisco money line +1.62 50 to win 81 and
San Francisco + 1 1/2 runs -1.40 70 to win 50
MLB Bets To Win Theory – Stay With The Trend In Place
Don’t try to will the projected front-runners to win
Most of the MLB bets team projections are based on what is happening now. Trying to guess when the “good” teams will wake up and start winning translates into laying big juice hoping what has happened so far is a fluke.
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Sometimes it is a fluke. But what if it isn’t? Baseball more than any other sport is filled with Cinderella stories that defy prior results and sometimes even logic. Last place to first place in one season is not uncommon.
It is best not to look at the team name and think what should happen if they would pitch or hit as they did last year or even multiple prior years. In this case the simpler explanation is the best – go with what is happening right in front of you now.
MLB Bets To Win Recap For Tuesday April 2nd:
Detroit +2.23
Philadelphia +1.83
Baltimore +1.87
New York Mets -1.22
Oakland +1.61
San Francisco +1.62 and run line +1 1/2 runs -1.40
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