PGA DraftKings Picks: 2019 Valero Texas Open
PGA DraftKings Picks: 2019 Valero Texas Open
After an odd week in the Fantasy Golf community, we are back to normal. Well, for a week at least. With The Masters just one week away, many golfers are here at the Valero Texas Open to sharpen up their game. Last year, it was the Houston Open that was the week before the Masters. Now with the new-look schedule, it is the Valero Texas Open in that spot for our PGA DraftKings focus.
Last year’s winner, Andrew Landry, will tee it up in his title defense this week. The 31-year-old hasn’t been too impressive as of late, failing to crack the top-20 in his past 19 events on tour. His price tag of $7,200 is very low for a defending champ, but the form is just not there. Landry is a full fade this week at the Valero Texas Open.
TPC San Antonio has played host to the Valero Texas Open since 2010, when the event moved on from LaCantera Golf Club. It is a Par 72 that plays very long stretching just over 7,400 yards. Being a longer course that features four Par 5’s, three of which longer than 590 yards, we will be targeting longer hitters.
Key stats to consider include Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, and Greens in Regulation. Hitting the green on the second shot of some of these long Par 4’s can be a tall task for some players.
Let’s take a look at some value plays for the Valero Texas Open on DraftKings this week:
PGA DraftKings Picks: 2019 Valero Texas Open
The top of the board on DraftKings is fairly easy to evaluate. First, I’m almost certain that rostering Fowler at $11,700 can be justified in this field. He is the clear favorite at the Valero Texas Open, but he would almost need a top-10 to pay off his price tag. Who knows what Ricky’s intentions are in playing here this week.
The next highest priced player is Matt Kuchar ($11,200), who is coming off of a runner-up finish in the WGC Dell Match Play this past week. I usually don’t like to put it into consideration, but the WGC Dell Match Play is a difficult tournament to bounce back from. Kuchar played four rounds between Saturday and Sunday, and it’ll take a lot for him to be recovered and ready to roll on Thursday. In fact, nobody from the final four last year played in the Houston Open that following week. Kuchar fits the mold here, but I’m willing to look elsewhere.
Tony Finau $10,800
Of this top-tier on DraftKings, Tony Finau is the most intriguing play in terms of price point, and fit. Finau is 2/2 at the Valero Texas Open in his career, with his most recent attempt resulting in a tie for third in 2017. He is another one of those golfers who is right on the cusp of getting his next PGA Tour victory.
We haven’t heard too much from him this year, but he has been quietly consistent. Finau has made four straight cuts, with three of them inside of the top-25. He currently ranks inside of the top-15 in Driving Distance, and SG: Off the Tee. We know that Finau can be a threat with the driver in his hand, so this should play to his advantage this week at the Valero Texas Open.
Alternate Option: Jordan Spieth ($10,300) can be looked at as a nice pivot for GPP’s. Last attempt was a solo second in 2015.
PGA DraftKings Picks: 2019 Valero Texas Open
This is another range that just isn’t all that enticing. It’s clear that this isn’t the strongest of fields, but we also need to seek out where the value lies. I’m just not completely sure it’s here.
Billy Horschel leads the way in this range at $9,800. He has a good track record at the Valero Texas Open, going 6/8 with three top-5’s. Horschel has made 16 straight cuts on tour with one W/D in that span. He is a safe cash game play, but I will not be to overweight on him.
Expect Denmark’s Lucas Bjerregaard to be very popular this week at $9,000. He, like Kuchar, is coming off of a long weekend at the WGC Dell Match Play where he made it to the final four as the 50-seed. I will be fading Bjerregaard for the same reasons I’m fading Kuchar. They’re both in good form, but we just don’t know where they are at following a long weekend in Austin.
Jason Kokrak $9,400
Coming off of a well deserved week off, Jason Kokrak looks like the play from this range. He paid off his price tag of $8,600 at the Valspar Championship with a tie for second, which was his 17th straight cut made on tour. Kokrak’s second place finish made that his third top-10 in his last four events played.
Kokrak has also had success at the Valero Texas Open making five of his last six cuts, with two finishes inside of the top-15. He fits TPC San Antonio in terms of the key stats. Kokrak ranks inside the top-30 this year on the PGA Tour in SG: Off the Tee, Greens in Regulation, and Driving Distance.
Alternate Option: Byeong Hun-An ($9,200) is in play again. Does he ever not rate out well for a course? An ranks top-5 in the field in SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, and Driving Distance. Let’s go right back to him.
PGA DraftKings Picks: 2019 Valero Texas Open
We see a few players who could make the case for being in that $9,000+ range in a field like this. In the middle of this tier, we find a couple of players who we are familiar with on the European Tour: Haotong Li ($8,600) and Joost Luiten ($8,500). These two are not often found on the PGA Tour unless it is a major. They are both inside of the OWGR top-70 and have had their fair share of success worldwide. Both of them make for very interesting plays.
While Haotong Li is already in the field for The Masters next week, Joost Luiten still has some work to do. Luiten will need to win the Valero Texas Open to punch his ticket. It can be done, but it is a tall order for the 33-year-old. He showed life at the WGC Mexico earlier this year with a top-10 and is coming off of a top-15 a month ago at the Oman Open. Luiten is a sneaky tournament play at $8,500.
Luke List $8,000
Just a year ago at the Valero Texas Open, Luke List was in the $10,000+ range. Now here we are, $2,000 cheaper getting List at a very affordable price. Prior to his missed cut last year, he had made two of his past three cuts at TPC San Antonio. He has made three of his last four cuts on tour with two of them resulting in top-15’s.
List, yet again, rates out well for this course as we all know he has a strong game off the tee. In fact, he leads the field in terms of Driving Distance, and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. List also finds himself inside of the top-25 in this field when it comes to Greens in Regulation. He is a nice value on DraftKings at $8,000 flat and shouldn’t be too popular.
Alternate Option: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,700) four straight top-26 or better finishes. Inside the fields top-20 in all four key stats (second in SG: Off the Tee).
PGA DraftKings Picks: 2019 Valero Texas Open
This is the value zone. We don’t see a huge drop-off in talent, yet are getting some great value plays under $8,000. If you are going to start your DraftKings roster build with Tony Finau and Jason Kokrak, you’ll need to get familiar with the range. Thay build leaves you with an average of Just under $7,500 for each of your last four roster spots. That being said, lets take a look at multiple different options from this range:
Trey Mullinax $7,400
When Trey Mullinax came onto the PGA Tour, he made his presence known off the tee as being a bomber. Playing on conditional status last season, he finished the year behind just Rory McIlroy as the second longest player on tour averaging 318 yards on his drives. He has kept that trend going as he is still averaging over 300 yards on his drives and is the 11th longest hitter in the field.
However, that is not the only box that he checks. Mullinax also finds himself as a top-20 player in this field when looking at Strokes Gained: Off the tee, and Greens in Regulation. His tie for second at last years Valero Texas Open still stands as his best finish thus far on the PGA Tour and he is a much more complete player this time around.
Brian Harman $7,300
One of my favorite value plays of the week is Brian Harman at $7,300. Harman has not played the Valero Texas Open since 2016, but has a good course history. From 2012-2016, Harman missed just one cut with three top-25 finishes. He did flash some form at The PLAYERS a few weeks back with his first top-10 since last June. In this field, Harman ranks 16th in SG: Off the Tee, and sixth in SG: Around the Green.
Other Options:
Justin Harding ($7,700) had a great showing at the WGC Dell Match Play going 2-1 falling one win short of Rory McIlroy. Discount for the 48th ranked player in the World.
Matt Jones ($7,200) has been playing very well as of late with back to back top-20’s. Rates out well in terms of SG: OTT, and SG: Around as he;s inside the fields top-25 in both categories.
Wyndham Clark ($7,100) ranks inside the top-30 in the field in SG: OTT, SG: Around, and Driving Distance. Currently the fifth longest hitter on tour.
PGA DraftKings Picks: 2019 Valero Texas Open
It gets pretty bad down here. I don’t see a situation in cash games where we would have to use players from this range. Especially if we’re going with a balanced approach avoiding the high-end options. However, there are some players down here that are worth a look in tournaments.
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Harold Varner III $6,600
HV3 is by far the most appealing play in this range. He hasn’t had the most ideal start to the year, but what do you expect from a player in this range. Varner has made just three of his last six cuts with his best finish being a top-10 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
When looking at the key stats, Varner is inside the field’s top-30 in SG: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, and Greens in Regulation. Before missing the cut at the Valero Texas Open a year ago, he was 2/2 with a top-10 in 2016.
Also, judging from the photo above, it looks like he doubles as a model in his free time, so he’s got that going for him as well. Maybe he’ll be able to try these poses with the Valero trophy?
J.J. Spaun ($6,600) ranks eighth in the field in GIR. 2/2 at Valero with a T26 last year.
Roberto Castro ($6,400) ranks top-20 in the field in SG: Around. Missed just one cut in six events this year.
Alex Prugh ($6,200) rates out well as he is top-25 in the field in SG: OTT, Driving Distance, and GIR. GPP play only.
Stephan Jaeger ($6,000) is in play at bare minimum on DraftKings. Ranks fifth in the field in SG: Around. Also just a GPP play. Coming off of a T26 at Corales
Leaker of the Week: Smylie Kaufman $6,100
*features player I expect to finish dead last, take it as you will.
I truly can’t even believe Smylie Kaufman is in this field. At that, how is he $100 above the minimum? Sneaking into the field on the Major Medical list, Kaufman is using one of his five remaining starts on tour here at the Valero Texas Open.
I mean what happened to this guy? He has missed the cut in 18 straight events. Yes, 18, and not just on the PGA Tour, I’m talking Web.com Tour, and Asian Tour thrown in there as well. ‘I’d be shocked if he came close to making the cut.
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