MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday, April 3 – Split Slate Day!
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday Night’s MLB DFS slate was dominated by pitching but on a slate with Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Chris Sale – it was not the arms priced above $20K that made the biggest difference, but it was the value arms which really drove the cash line. Blake Snell was the star of the night with a slate leading 44 fantasy points while mid-range arms Zach Eflin and Zack Greinke put up 30 and 28 fantasy points as the next best arms on the slate. Offensively the “must have” bats were Hunter Renfroe and Aldaberto Mondesi while a pair of Phillies, Bryce Harper and Maikel Franco rounded out the top 7 raw fantasy point plays on a Tuesday where we saw winning GPP scores at a reasonable 160-165 level.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Wednesday Early Pitching Breakdown:
Welcome to a split slate Wednesday where we have two 5 game slates, one which starts at 12:35 PM EST and another at 7:05 PM EST. If you are new to MLB DFS, these mid-week split slates are one of the best parts of playing baseball DFS as you get a chance for some all day tilt with two separate slates to build lineups for.
The early slate pitching is actually quite strong as we have a trio of aces on the hill with Corey Kluber, Aaron Nola and German Marquez all taking the mound.
All things considered, Kluber ($21.5K) feels like the safest of the arms with a match-up against a strikeout heavy White Sox team and Vegas seems to agree, installing him as a massive -190 favorite while Chicago has the lowest IRT on the entire day at only 2.7. Although Kluber only racked up 5 K’s on Opening Day, his 16.5% swinging strike rate in that starts gives you a glimpse into his upside against a projected lineup with a 25% K rate against RHP in 2018.
When you consider the savings that dropping down to Nola or Marquez ($19.7K/$19.6K) provide, there is an argument to be made the fade the potential chalk in Kluber and get similar upside for a cheaper price with either of these two arms. For as great as Kluber and Nola are, Marquez is the arm here with the highest K rate (28.2% in 2018) and highest swinging strike rate (12.8%) and faces an equally strikeout happy squad in Tampa Bay with a near 25% K rate against RHP. All things considered, I will take the savings and drop down to Marquez as my SP1 who just happens to be the cheapest of the bunch.
Kyle Gibson ($12.9K) looks like the de-facto cheap SP2 option on this slate – an arm with solid all around numbers – a 22% K rate, a 12% swinging strike rate who continues to produce a high GB rate at nearly 50% as he relies heavily on his sinker. Gibson saw his K rate jump 4% last season as a result of throwing his secondary offerings more, specifically his slider, which generated a spike in his swinging strike rate from 10% in 2017 to just under 12% in 2018.
The match-up here with the Royals is a favorable one, with the only risk being that Gibson missed much of spring training with E. Coli so there is risk in how deep Gibson actually goes in this start. The Royals projected lineup has a K rate of 24% against RHP in 2018 with a GB rate that is 3% higher than their FB rate which could play perfectly into Gibson’s strength. As a cheap SP2, Gibson feels “safe” with some solid K upside that will allow you to spend up on bats.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
You know its an ugly slate for hitting when the top IRT is the Minnesota Twins at only 4.5 but that is what facing Homer Bailey will do for you. Rather than chase the stack against Homer Bailey chalk, and kudos to FantasyDraft for jacking up the Minnesota hitters prices – I think there are far better values and better all around upside.
The Reds-Brewers game feels like the perfect boom or bust spot for hitters in Great American Ballpark against two electric albeit erratic arms in Luis Castillo and Freddy Peralta. On the Reds side, you want to attack Peralta with LHB as Peralta struggled in 2018 to the tune of a .237 ISO, 44% HC rate and 15% BB rate and although the Reds are predominately right-handed with Scooter Gennett on the shelf, there are still some bats we can target here.
The lock play of the slate in my opinion is Joey Votto at only $7.2K – he is priced at the same level as Kevin Plawecki – yes THAT Kevin Plawecki – this is Joey Votto against a guy that struggles with lefties – do not get cute with this price. Tucker Barnhart ($6.3K), Scott Schebler ($7.6K) and Jesse Winker ($7.5K) give you a left-handed heavy value stack that you can work in easily with the higher priced pitching on the slate.
The Brewers are pricey but I would argue there is no other offense on this early slate with the raw upside that Milwaukee has which is one of the reasons why i am finding myself leaning towards paying down at my SP2 (Gibson) so I can get the big Brewer bats into my builds.
Luis Castillo is an electric K arm but he also struggled mightily against LHB in 2018 – giving up over 2 HR/9, .241 ISO and 42% HC rate and will have to navigate through an elite core of LHB in the Milwaukee lineup. Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal all have .230+ ISO marks against RHP in 2018 with Yelich and Shaw putting up .280+ marks. This is the stack that could easily win you a GPP with their power upside alone and without many other elite offenses to target, I think prioritizing the four Milwaukee lefties is the ideal build on the early slate.
Slate Overview: My focus on the early slate is locking in one top arm (Kluber/Nola/Marquez) and dropping down at SP2 so I can stack the power upside of the Brewers. The Reds offense seemingly provides enough value to make this build work and with it being a day game slate after night games, we could even see more value open up once lineups are released.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
With the Mets/Marlins playing at 6PM EST, it takes Jacob deGrom off either slate today and when you get to the Main Slate you quickly realize how Gerrit Cole ($22.3K) stands head and shoulders above the rest of the arms that are available. Cole’s 34.5% K rate is 7% higher than any other arm on the slate and his 14% swinging strike rate is 3% higher than the next best arm on the main slate.
With the other options on this slate, Cole simply feels like a must play on a five game slate – outside of the price and maybe game theory, I cannot really come up with a strong reason to fade the highest K upside arm on a short slate without any real alternatives.
Finding an SP2 is really the challenge on this slate – as there is only one other arm, Ross Stripling ($19.3K) who had over a 25% K rate in 2018. With a few spots we want to target with hitters, there really is no cheap/punt SP2 option so we are stuck in this odd mid-range with the likes of Miles Mikolas, Jon Lester (you know I cannot do it) and Julio Teheran.
Julio Teheran ($13.6K) is a pitcher that for a long time we have played the home/road split game as he had struggled in Sun Trust Park historically but in 2018 he corrected that trend with nearly identical indicators home and away.
The match-up against the Cubs is risky, but so was the match-up in his first go around against Philly in Citizen’s Bank Park where he struck out 7 batters in 5 innings while giving up 3 ER’s. The fact that Teheran had a near 16% swinging strike rate in that start is really what stands out to me as he relied on his slider nearly 40% of the time which is a massive jump over 2018 where he threw it only 21% of the time and only threw it more than 30% of the time in 5 total games last year. If the slider is on and Teheran can control it, he has the ability to put up big time K totals but understand it comes with risk both in terms of runs and walks however when considering the lack of upside among the SP2 choices today, Teheran offers K ability that really none of these other options offer.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Bats:
I swear, my goal is not to simply write up the Dodgers every day but the pricing on FantasyDraft tends to push me in this direction nearly every slate. Tonight against LHP Derek Holland, a pitcher who gave up a .205 ISO, 44 % HC rate and 1.34 HR/9 rate to RHB in 2018 – this becomes one of the top spots to stack once again.
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Look at the right-handed batters here for the Dodgers – A.J. Pollock ($9.1K), Chris Taylor (8.3K), Enrique Hernandez ($8.4K), Justin Turner ($8.3K) and David Freese ($7.3K) – all hitters with strong numbers against LHP and at this price point, they become an easy team to stack around Gerrit Cole as your SP1.
As an example – if you roster Cole and Teheran and stack up the 5 Dodgers mentioned here, you would still have $7.5K per batter to round out the last 3 hitters on your squad. Going all in though on any one stack may not be necessary today with so many great hitting spots – Astros versus Mike Minor, Red Sox versus Marco Estrada and the Braves against Jon Lester (you knew I was going to bring it up).
The issue with the Astros/Red Sox stacks and even the Braves to an extent – is that their prices because of the star power they posses may force you to make an either/or choice of bats or Cole where the Dodgers allow you the ability to stack bats AND fit in Cole with ease.
If forced to choose my secondary stack, I would pick and choose power pieces from the Red Sox against Estrada – a pitcher who gave up 1.5 HR/9 to hitters from both sides of the plate in 2018 with .230+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate. If you are fitting in Cole, it becomes difficult to force in the big bats of JD and Mookie but there are cheaper Boston hitters like Rafael Devers ($8.5K), Xander Boegarts ($8.4K) and Mitch Moreland ($7.7K) that offer you strong power upside for a fraction of the price.
Slate Overview: On the Main Slate, I would start your builds on FantasyDraft with Gerrit Cole and a Dodgers right-handed stack and build from there. Without any other strong K options, Cole simply feels like a must and the Dodgers stack is the one high upside spot where the pricing allows you to fit them in alongside Cole as opposed to having to make an either/or decision. Watch for value – if we get a punt power option like Tyler Flowers ($6.6K) against my boy Jon Lester, it will open up additional salary to help fit in some Red Sox and Astros bats as well.
Enjoy the split slates all – see you back here on Thursday!
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