MLB DFS Pitching Primer – Wednesday, 4/3

MLB DFS Pitching: Wednesday 4/3

Welcome back to the Wednesday Edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. Today I’ll be adding FanDuel pricing and expanding this article to cover both FanDuel and DraftKings pitching options.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

It dawned on me that I don’t have a glossary of terms for some of the sabermetrics that I use to analyze pitching each and every day. Here are some of the stats that I use most frequently and a quick explanation.

WHIP = Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched

This is a valuable metric when playing Draftkings as pitchers are penalized for hits and walks unlike the scoring system on FanDuel which only penalizes earned runs.

SIERA = Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average

Just using ERA is a thing of the past and doesn’t really capture the effectiveness of a pitcher that well anymore. SIERA is an ERA estimator that attempts to determine whether or not a pitcher’s actual ERA should have been higher or lower than it was based on how well they pitched.

FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching

This metric attempts to estimate what a pitcher’s ERA would be if they got average results on balls that are put into play. Basically trying to strip away the positive or negative effects of good/bad defense behind them or just bad luck on balls hit weakly that fall in for hits.

SS% = Swinging Strike Percentage

The percentage of pitches that a pitcher gets the opposing hitter to swing and miss. Some people don’t love this stat but I do. It generally correlates well with high strikeout percentages and helps us identify pitchers with an arsenal of pitches that can rack up Ks.

GB% = Ground Ball Percentage

Ground balls are good because they can never be home runs. We want to target pitchers with higher ground ball rates whenever possible.

K% = Strikeout Percentage

Percentage of batters that the pitcher has struck out divided by the total number of hitters they’ve faced.

HR/FB = Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio

Percentage of fly balls that turned into home runs for any given pitcher. Can be affected by the dimensions of their home stadium.

K/9 = Strikeouts per 9 innings

Obviously, strikeouts are one of the most important DFS stats we are looking for. We typically want to target guys who average more than a K per inning or 9 K/9 or better.

There may be some other terms I use this season. I encourage you if you ever want to dive deeper into pitching to check out FanGraphs and dig into as many stats as you want. Your head will spin, it’s so much fun!

MLB DFS Pitching: First Look

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here on the introductory slide, usually accompanied by Vegas odds.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Today we have a split slate with a 5-game “early only” slate at and a 5-game “main” slate that locks at 7:05, Both FanDuel and Draftkings are running the same early and main slates, and there is an afternoon slate, too, but I will keep my picks for early or main slate only.

Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second as well as the Vegas odds in parathesis.

Early Only (5 games) – 12:35

Freddy Peralta vs. Luis Castillo (-115)

Aaron Nola (-125) vs. Anibal Sanchez

Carlos Rodon vs. Corey Kluber (-195)

German Marquez vs. Charlie Morton (-130)

Kyle Gibson (-130) vs. Homer Bailey

Main Slate (5 games) – 7:05

Miles Mikolas vs. Jameson Taillon (-110)

Jon Lester vs. Julio Teheran (-105)

Gerrit Cole (-150) vs. Mike Minor

Nathan Eovaldi (-130) vs. Marco Estrada

Derek Holland vs. Ross Stripling (-200)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces

Early Slate:

Aaron Nola @ Washington (10.7k FD, 10.2k DK)

If you’re playing on FanDuel for the early slate I highly recommend paying for one of the top options today as there isn’t a whole lot to like in the mid-tier or below. Aaron Nola looked great in his first start this season (other than 5 walks) as he dominated a good Braves lineup to the tune of 6 innings and only one earned run allowed with 8 strikeouts.

His repertoire of pitches really keeps hitters off balance and statistically, there aren’t any real weaknesses in his output. He has a low hard contact rate, low walk rate, high groundball rate, and some solid strikeout numbers. Washington has a right-handed heavy lineup and so Nola should have the advantage on most of the Nats hitters today, though he’s equally tough on lefties, too.

German Marquez @ Tampa Bay (10k FD, 9.9k DK)

If you haven’t realized I have a love affair with German Marquez yet, don’t worry, you will. The secret on him is out, however, as he was really chalky in his first start of the season. He didn’t disappoint though, as he posted a solid stat line of six innings, a lone earned run allowed, and 7 seven strikeouts against Miami.

Marquez is an underdog here on the road against a scrappy Tampa Bay offense, but I’m still all over him. His numbers are so good against righties and he should see a bunch of them in this Rays lineup today.  This ballpark suppresses power and Tampa has one of the lowest ISO ratings of any of the offenses on the slate. I think Marquez will pitch well enough for the win and a quality start (both important on FanDuel) and hopefully his offense can wake up and give him some run support.

Main Slate:

Gerrit Cole (11.2k FD, 11.4k DK) @ Texas

It may seem hypocritical to suggest using Cole tonight after I also faded Verlander last night in the same spot. Cole also has a flyball tendency and will have to face this powerful Texas offense in a bad pitchers’ park. However, our options on these small slates today are much more limited than they were yesterday as we have half as many pitchers to choose from and a lot fewer top-end arms on the bump.

What Cole does have going for him is best K-rate on the slate at 34% and he had that powerful arm on display in the opener when he whiffed 10 Rays. He also has excellent career numbers against Texas, and while I don’t always factor those numbers into the equation, these results are impressive. In 4 starts last season, Cole dominated the Rangers to the tune of 40 strikeouts in 25 innings while allowing only 8 earned runs. He easily has the highest floor and ceiling of any pitcher on the evening slate.

Ross Stripling (9.3k FD, 10.2k DK) vs. San Francisco

Stripling was a guy I leaned on a lot for a long stretch last season. It took people a while to realize just how solid of a pitcher he was after he came out of the bullpen to start for the Dodgers while their other starters were battling injuries. I’m not sure many will want to pay this price for Stripling as he got a nice little price hike after his solid outing against the D-Backs in his first start.

Stripling was solid allowing only three hits over 5 and 1/3 frames while striking out five. He has the safer matchup between him and Cole as he faces the Giants at home. I’m pretty sure I’ve used a pitcher against the Giants on every slate so far this season and I see no reason to stop that strategy at this point. Stripling profiles a lot like Aaron Nola, in that he doesn’t have dominating strikeout numbers, but has really excellent numbers across the board and no glaring weaknesses in his game.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pivots

Early: Charlie Morton (8.8k both sites) vs. Colorado

If you’re looking for leverage on the early slate, then consider using Morton against the Rockies. I think most of the ownership at pitcher will be gobbled up by Nola, Marquez, and Corey Kluber. Morton is a solid pivot, as he has some solid strikeout numbers of his own (29% K rate last season) and he whiffed 8 batters in his first start while looking pretty sharp. These Colorado bats are still asleep and I think you can attack them away from Coors Field while they are still cold.

Main: Jameson Taillon (8.8k FD, 7.9 DK) vs. St. Louis

Full disclosure – I am a Pirates fan. However, I tend not to recommend Pirates pitchers or hitters if I can help it. Today, I can’t help it as we have very limited options to choose from on these small slates.

I watched Taillon’s first start against the Reds and he looked really good through five innings. He was locating his pitches and getting a lot of ground ball outs. He hung a breaking ball that turned into a cheap home run that wouldn’t have been out of many parks other than Cincinnati’s and then put a few guys on in the 6th inning before being lifted and watching the Pirates bullpen immediately give up three more runs.

I usually don’t do such anecdotal analysis, but all I am trying to say is Taillon pitched better than his stat line indicates. He doesn’t have that much strikeout upside, but what he does have working for him is solid groundball rate, low hard contact rate and a matchup with a nearly all right-handed Cardinals lineup at PNC Park, a stadium that suppresses right-handed power more than most ballparks.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms/SP2s

Early: Kyle Gibson (8k FD, 6.3k DK) @ Kansas City

This is primarily a DK-only recommendation based on how difficult it is to make a team today without paying down at SP2. Gibson is not much more than an average MLB pitcher, but he is coming off his best season as a pro and had some seriously favorable home/road splits last season in which he pitched much better on the road.

I don’t love the idea of picking on Kansas City, but Gibson stands out at this price tier as one of the better arms available and I think he gets a good bit of run support from his offense to back him up today.

Main: Mike Minor (6k FD, 4.8k DK) vs. Houston

This is where we are gonna get weird. Minor is mainly a DK-only SP2 option unless you want to totally leverage the chalk on FanDuel and get crazy (which I like to do sometimes.) Hear me out. No one is going to use Minor after he got knocked around by the Cubs on opening day, especially against a right-handed heavy Houston team with Springer, Bregman, Altuve at the top of the order.

However, Minor faced this team 5 times last season and gave up more than 3 earned runs just once. In fact, his last three starts against them were quality starts in which we went 6 innings and was able to limit the damage against him. Houston’s offense has been struggling out of the gate and it’s perfectly possible that Minor could slow them down again tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can of the Night

Early: Homer Bailey

It’s hard to believe that Homer Bailey was once a promising young pitcher who has not one, but two no-hitters in his career.  The last two seasons he’s had some of the worst numbers of any major league starters with terrible hard contact percentages and a ton of home runs allowed. Everyone knows how bad he is at this point, so if you’re looking for where the chalk offense will be on this early slate, it’s likely to be the Minnesota bats and I’d recommend at least grabbing a few as someone is going to homer off Homer.

Main: Marco Estrada

Congrats, Marco! You’ve officially been the Gas Can of the Night two weeks in a row! To be fair, Estrada didn’t pitch all that badly in his last start against the Angels, but that doesn’t change my mind about him one bit. He has horrible numbers across the board and a major homerun issue. Oh and he’s facing an offense loaded with right-handed power that was fluky bad against Mike Fiers last night. Mookie and JD make great plays tonight against this gas can and I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them took him yard.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

Here is where I like to leave you with a quick cheat sheet. My rankings for cash games are based on safety, while the GPP rankings are based on upside and point-per-dollar value. Today I am going to rank both the early and main slates for both Cash and GPP.

Cash Game Rankings

Early:

1. German Marquez
2. Aaron Nola
3. Kyle Gibson

Main:

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Ross Stripling
3. Mike Minor (SP2 only)

GPP Rankings

Early:

1. Aaron Nola
2. German Marquez
3. Charlie Morton

Main:

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Ross Stripling
3. Jameson Taillon

Thanks again for reading my pitching breakdown! Keep coming back to FantasyCPR for more MLBDFS content and hit me up on Twitter if you ever want to talk DFS or give me feedback for the article.