Final Four Bets To Win – Can The Dogs Keep Winning?

Good day and greetings from NCAA handicapping central.  Let’s examine these 2 Saturday games and make some bold predictions in our Final Four Bets!

The first game to consider for Final Four bets is Auburn vs. Virginia, and here there are some conflicting statistics.  Auburn is the lowest seed left in the tournament at #5 while Virginia is a top seed.

The raw number on this game is probably higher than one would think.  Final Four Bets has Virginia as a 9 1/2 point favorite over the upstart Auburn Tigers.

But it’s not as simple as that.  What must be factored in is the difference in points each squad has played against the spread.  Only in this way can we come up with a proper game number – how well or poorly a team has played recently (the last 3 games) is crucial and certainly more important than lumping the whole season together.

Let’s do some comparison and see where they stand.  Auburns last 3 look like this:
Played Kentucky to overtime (considered a tie game) getting 5 points    = +5
Played North Carolina and won by 17   getting 6 points         =  +23
Played Kansas and won by 14   laying 2 points                   =  +12

Now let’s see how Virginia did against the spread in their last 3 games:
Played Purdue to overtime    laying 4 points      =  -4
Played Oregon and won by 4   laying 8 points   =  -4
Played Oklahoma and won by 12   laying 11     =  +1

Now it becomes clear why Virginia is only favored by 5 when the raw number is almost ten.  Auburn has completely overwhelmed Virginia in team performance as measured by their winning margin against the spread.  In fact, looking at the point differentials above, a case could be made that Auburn could and maybe should win this game outright.

As of this writing the line is mostly 5 1/2 with some scattered 6’s in the mix.  Final Four Bets says at +6, Auburn is a value play.

It is possible the line may move slightly higher as some computer plays will favor laying the points just looking at the power rating.  In any case, the dog money line can also be considered as value and played accordingly.

Final Four Bets To Win – Texas Tech Upsets Michigan State

This seems a little crazy since Michigan State just came off a dramatic win over tournament favored Duke in their last game.  So how could Final Four Bets predict an upset here?

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To answer that we have to put the same spread evaluation on each of these 2 teams just as we did with the previous game.  Here is how the winning spread margins stack up:

In the 3 prior games Texas Tech has played, the numbers look like this:
Played Gonzaga and won by 6    getting 5 points   =  +11
Played Michigan and won by 19    getting 2 points    =  +21
Played Buffalo and won by 20   laying 3 points       =  +17

Now let’s see how Michigan State fared vs the spread:
Played Duke and won by 1 point    getting 3     =  +4
Played LSU and won by 17    laying  6           =  +11
Played Minnesota and won by 20   laying 10   =  +10

These numbers are a lot closer than the Virginia/Auburn game but the power rating number is not inflated.  The raw number here is Michigan State by 2 with the current line being mostly 2 1/2 with a few scattered 3’s.

In summation, both underdogs appear to have the numbers on their side to cover or even win outright..  Auburn +6  and  Texas Tech +3  are the official plays from Final Four Bets.

Bonus game – South Florida knocks off Depaul

In the Friday game starting at 7 pm Eastern time, South Florida takes on Depaul with 2 big advantages for SFL – One is the injury to Eli Cain of Depaul, and two is the winning spread margin advantage which is solidly with South Florida.

Recapping the plays:
Auburn +6
Texas Tech +3
South Florida +1

Best Of Luck And Continued Success From Final Four Bets