‘Super Saturday’ features a trio of Kentucky Derby preps

The Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial are on tap this weekend.

A trio of Kentucky Derby prep races — the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park — highlight a busy day of racing on Saturday, which is known as “Super Saturday” in horse racing circles.

All three preps offer 100 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to the winner, 40 points to the second-place finisher, 20 points to the horse finishing third and 10 points to the steed that checks in fourth. This means that the top two finishers are virtually guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate should they choose to enter (the Derby field has been limited to 20 starters since 1975 and the point system has been in effect since 2013).

Let’s take a look at each race.

Wood Memorial (Grade II)

The Wood has produced 48 Kentucky Derby starters and three Derby winners since 1997 but is zip-for-34 over the past 16 years, with nary an in-the-money (third-place or better) finish. And while I’m doubtful will see that streak broken this year, there are some horses I’ll be keeping my eye on this weekend (in program order):

1-TAX (9/2 morning line odds): Typically, a horse that started in a claiming event like Tax is not a prime contender to wear the roses on the first Saturday in May — but it has happened.

Mine That Bird, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2009, broke his maiden for a $62,500 claiming tag as a two-year-old and Charismatic was entered for a tag as a juvenile and also at age three, a mere 79 days before he won the Run for the Roses in 1999 (he also won the Preakness that year).

What’s more, just last weekend, Maximum Security captured the Grade I Florida Derby after being entered in a claiming event earlier in his career.

What intrigues me about Tax is the tremendous improvement he’s shown — about 15 lengths, based on his Brisnet speed figures — since being claimed by trainer Danny Gargan on Oct. 21. On the downside, the son of Arch has a full brother that was last seen finishing fifth in a $5,000 claiming affair at Mahoning Valley Race Course.

3-HOFFA’S UNION (6/1): I was a big fan of the Maryland-based Irish War Cry a couple of years back and this guy, who also broke his maiden at Laurel Park, intrigues me as well. The late speed ration (LSR) he earned in that debut win was ridiculously good and, if he can come off the pace, I think he has a big chance this Saturday — although I suspect he’s too inexperienced to win on the first Saturday in May.

7-NOT THAT BRADY (20/1): This guy tried to rate last time — and it worked about as well as it did for Hidden Scroll in the Florida Derby. He’s got the speed to get the lead in this spot and, if he does, I think he can be tough.

11-JOEVIA (30/1): His speed and pace numbers are way too good for him to be 30-1.

Blue Grass Stakes (Grade II)

This race has produced by far the most Kentucky Derby starters (84) over the past 22 years, yet only one Blue Grass entrant has visited the Derby winner’s circle in that time (Street Sense, 2007).

Some of the notable entrants include:

1-SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN (10/1): He’s undefeated since leaving the turf, but it is how he has been winning that has impressed me. The Mike Maker trainee has gone wire-to-wire in each of his last two starts at Turfway Park, which has the same Polytrack surface that Keeneland used to have.

Typically, Polytrack is not as kind to frontrunners as conventional dirt is, as witnessed by Keeneland’s 18.8 percent wire-to-wire win rate in routes from 2006-2013 (when the track had a Polytrack surface) and the current 23.1 percent rate in those same races since 2014 (when dirt was re-installed).

Because of this, I think the son of Big Brown has a decent shot of upsetting at what promises to be a big price.

2-VEKOMA (9/5): This guy is the morning line favorite… and I think he’s very vulnerable. His effort in the Fountain of Youth was OK — but only OK — and, outside of the fact that this looks like a weak field, I just don’t see a compelling reason to take a short price on him this weekend.

6-DREAM MAKER (12/1): Full sister was a Grade 1 winner on the grass and this guy has hinted at greater talent. He’s had trouble at the start in his two biggest defeats, including last time in a dull effort in the Tampa Bay Derby.

With a clean break, he could surprise.

10-LUCKY LEE (20/1): Looked great winning an allowance affair at Parx Racing on Nov. 17 and, then, made a mild bid on the turn in his stakes debut on Feb. 2, when he finished seventh and last in the Withers Stakes. He’s worth a look at double-digit odds.

Santa Anita Derby (Grade I)

The Santa Anita Derby has produced six Kentucky Derby winners — the most of any last-race prep — since 1997, but, this year, managed to lure just a half-dozen entrants.

As is often the case in this event, which he has won a record eight times, trainer Bob Baffert is holding a strong hand, as he will saddle morning line favorite and Juvenile Champ Game Winner, along with second choice Roadster.

Here’s a closer look:

1-ROADSTER (5/2): Won an optional claiming affair in his three-year-old debut, following a strong third-place showing behind Game Winner in the Del Mar Futurity. Mike Smith, who is 19-of-41 riding for Baffert over the past year, gets the mount.

5-INSTAGRAND (3/1): Bid and hung in his 3-year-old bow — the Gotham Stakes — but had previously gone wire-to-wire in a couple of sprint races. Depending on what Baffert and Smith choose to do with Roadster (I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s sent), this guy could be left alone on the lead, which makes him a very dangerous individual.

6-GAME WINNER (4/5): His effort in the Rebel — the first loss of his five-race career — was much better than it looked, as the son of Candy Ride recorded a lifetime-best -2 LSR. And even with the short field I think this guy is going to get a good trip, especially since the other primary speed is the other Baffert trainee.