English Premier League DFS Breakdown – 4/6/19

Guess who’s back?!  None other than your favorite English Premier League dfs writer!  Man, it’s been a while since I had time to write an English Premier League DFS Breakdown, but it feels good to be back for this small three game slate on Saturday.

On Saturday, there is a small EPL slate of only three games that does not include much star power.  Leicester are the largest favorites on the slate taking on an already-relegated Huddersfield team.  The goal total for that game is currently set at 2.5, and with Leicester having some of the more popular names on the slate, they will be the chalk.

The second game on Saturday is a matchup between 13th place Crystal Palace and 14th place Newcastle.  Both teams are free of relegation, but neither are playing for much anymore.  Newcastle holds the slight advantage in Vegas on the money line, but the spread dead even at 0.0.  The goal total is only 2.0 for this game.  Both teams have had low scoring seasons and normally this is not a great game to target, but with the small slate some exposure is probably necessary.

The final EPL game Saturday sees Bournemouth at home against Burnley.  Bournemouth -0.5 favorites and the goal total is 2.5.  There are definitely usable pieces in this game, mostly from Bournemouth’s attack given Burnley’s defensive struggles away from home this season.

Thankfully, injury news is essentially negligible on this slate and all six teams should line up very similarly to how we expect.

English Premier League DFS – Cash Core

Jamie Vardy (Leicester @ Huddersfield, $12,000) – On a larger six game slate, I doubt I would pay this much for Vardy, but that isn’t the case on Saturday.  Huddersfield have given up third most goals so far this season, so this is a prime matchup for Vardy.  Vardy also has five goals in his last five EPL appearances, so he’s coming into this game in really good form.  He’s another really solid bet to get on the scoresheet again in this game, so he’s worth the price tag on the smaller slate.

Salomon Rondon (Crystal Palace @ Newcastle, $10,500) – If you want to save some money and avoid Vardy chalk, check out Rondon.  He’s been involved in the majority of Newcastle’s goals this season.  Crystal Palace gives up significantly more goals on the road than at home, so some Newcastle exposure even with the low goal total could be smart.  In my mind this game is going to go one of two ways; either both teams lay down and do nothing or it becomes an open game full of fantasy goodness.  If the game shapes into the latter, Rondon should score well.

James Maddison (Leicester @ Huddersfield, $9,500) – Deciding to put Maddison or Milivojevic here was difficult, but ultimately it came down to Maddison having a better matchup, being cheaper, and being a crucial member of the attack for the largest favorited team on the slate.  Anyone can see how consistent Maddison has been this season from his game logs.  That’s exactly what you want to pay for on a small slate in cash games.  Take the sure points where you can get them here.  Youri Tielemans ($8,500) has been productive enough fantasy-wise for me to consider him on this slate as well, especially in a full Leicester stack.

Terence Kongolo (Leicester @ Hudderfield, $4,500) – Kongolo remains near minimum price even after averaging 20.7 FDP over his last four games (that’s good for 4.6x value).  Kongolo should continue racking up defensive peripheral stats at a high rate for someone in his price range.  He provides great value at defense and his price tag allows you to save for other positions.

If you’re wondering why I have a picture of Wilfried Zaha but I didn’t write him up, it’s because he’s my guy and there honestly aren’t pictures of guys like Terence Kongolo on Getty Images (lol).

English Premier League DFS – GPP Targets

Josh King (Bournemouth @ Burnley, $9,500) – In the opening, I mentioned Burnley’s poor defense, and this is where we’re going to capitalize on that.  I’m willing to roster King on this slate purely for his goal upside.  His floor is not ideal, but this matchup is good enough where he can get on the scoresheet.  His floor does make him risky though, but he should be low-owned enough in GPPs where he’ll give you a big boost if he scores.  Callum Wilson ($11,000) will be chalky, but I like him as well.

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Ryan Fraser (Bournemouth @ Burnley, $8,500) – Sticking with targeting Bournemouth attackers, Ryan Fraser is really affordable GPP piece on Saturday.  Fraser is fully back on his feet now after a few injuries set him back over the winter.  This is a plus matchup, but Fraser’s price tag remains low.  He has a good enough floor with his peripherals to provide some safety, and the goal/assist upside is real.

Matt Ritchie (Crystal Palace @ Newcastle, $7,000) – Like Fraser, Ritchie’s ability to get peripheral stats keeps his floor high enough to provide some safety.  However, if Vegas is right about this game, there might not be a whole lot of action.  However, it’s fully possible that neither team decides to play defense on Saturday given their positions on the table.  If that happens, you’re going to want some pieces of this game and Ritchie is an affordable starting place.

Juninho Bacuna (Leicester @ Huddersfield, $7,500) – Bacuna has emerged as one of Huddersfield’s most useful players from a fantasy perspective.  Since the beginning of February, he’s established a solid fantasy floor, but not high enough where I would consider him for cash lobbies.  His ability to get stats on both ends of the field is going to be useful in this game that has a high goal total.  I don’t necessarily trust Leicester to keep a clean sheet, so Bacuna could get involved in the attack.

Ricardo Pereira (Leicester @ Huddersfield, $5,500) – Pereira is the easy GPP defender pick on this slate.  He’s an attacking defender on the slate’s largest favorite.  His price is down due to his lack of big games lately, and this is a great spot to take advantage of that.  Huddersfield won’t be able to stop Leicester’s attack, which should open more opportunities for Pereira to get involved on the flanks.

Thanks for reading my abbreviated English Premier League DFS Breakdown and good luck.