MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Sunday, 4/7

MLB DFS Pitching: Sunday, 4/7

Welcome back to a special Sunday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. Today I’ll be adding FanDuel pricing and expanding this article to cover both FanDuel and DraftKings pitching options.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

I wanted to provide a glossary of terms for some of the sabermetrics that I use to analyze pitching each and every day. Here are some of the stats that I use most frequently and a quick explanation.

WHIP = Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched

This is a valuable metric when playing Draftkings as pitchers are penalized for hits and walks unlike the scoring system on FanDuel which only penalizes earned runs.

FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching

This metric attempts to estimate what a pitcher’s ERA would be if they got average results on balls that are put into play. Basically trying to strip away the positive or negative effects of good/bad defense behind them or just bad luck on balls hit weakly that fall in for hits.

SS% = Swinging Strike Percentage

The percentage of pitches that a pitcher gets the opposing hitter to swing and miss. Some people don’t love this stat but I do. It generally correlates well with high strikeout percentages and helps us identify pitchers with an arsenal of pitches that can rack up Ks.

GB% = Ground Ball Percentage

Ground balls are good because they can never be home runs. We want to target pitchers with higher ground ball rates whenever possible.

K% = Strikeout Percentage

Percentage of batters that the pitcher has struck out divided by the total number of hitters they’ve faced.

K/9 = Strikeouts per 9 innings

Obviously, strikeouts are one of the most important DFS stats we are looking for. We typically want to target guys who average more than a K per inning or 9 K/9 or better.

There may be some other terms I use this season. I encourage you if you ever want to dive deeper into pitching to check out FanGraphs and dig into as many stats as you want. Your head will spin, it’s so much fun!

MLB DFS Pitching: First Look

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here on the introductory slide, usually accompanied by Vegas odds. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Today we have an 11-game main slate that locks at 1:05.  Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second, Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis.

Jose Berrios vs. Zach Eflin (-130)

Domingo German (-185) vs. David Hess

Marcus Stroman vs. Mike Clevinger (-160)

Brad Keller (-105) vs. Tyson Ross

Max Scherzer (-140) vs. Zach Wheeler

Caleb Smith vs. Sean Newcomb (-160)

Anthony Descalfani vs. Chris Archer (-135)

Kyle Hendricks vs. Zach Davies (-120)

Wade Leblanc vs. Ivan Nova  (-105)

Mike Fiers vs. Brad Peacock (-170)

Matt Strahm vs. Adam Wainwright (-125)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces

Max Scherzer (11.9k both sites ) vs. New York Mets

Mad Max is the highest pitcher on the slate, and it’s hard to argue against using him. He hasn’t won a game yet this year, but he has racked up 21 strikeouts in only 12 and 2/3 innings. He struck out twelve Mets on opening day and always has the potential to be the highest scoring pitcher on the slate. The Mets have some power and he is prone to giving up home runs, but there’s really only one pitcher can rival his K numbers today and that’s…

Mike Clevinger (10.8k FD, 9.9k DK ) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Clevinger is my favorite play on the slate, even with Mad Max in the mix. He looked downright dominant in his opening start against the White Sox, striking out 12 hitters over 7 innings. Here, watch him place this ridiculous slider right off the plate for an easy strikeout.

Against a Blue Jays team that has been striking out a ton already this season, and is mainly right-handed, Clevinger has a ton of K potential again today. Clevinger’s one weakness has been walks and he did walk 3 batters in his first outing and averaged 3 BB/9 last season. But overall, this is the best matchup of any pitcher on the slate and he will be my highest owned player today.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Plays

Domingo German (8.3k FD, 9.4k DK ) @ Baltimore Orioles

German was lights out in his first start against Detroit, striking out 7 in only 5 innings of shutout baseball. The only reason to give pause is the fact that he walked five hitters, and control has been an issue for him in the past. The young hurler has an electric fastball and when he’s able to locate it, he’s hard to hit. When he isn’t throwing strikes, he ends up walking batters and working from behind in the count. The good news is he gets a matchup with an Orioles team that is mainly right-handed and is full of hitters carrying 20% or higher K rates.

Brad Peacock (8.3k FD, 8.8k DK ) vs. Oakland Athletics

Peacock pitched well in his return to the Houston rotation, whiffing 5 Rangers over 6 and 2/3 innings. Today he faces an Oakland team that is full of right-handed bats and strikes out a lot. They do have a ton of power, so attacking them can be risky, but Peacock’s strikeout rate and solid numbers against righties make him well worth the risk.

Zach Eflin (8.4k FD, 8.1k DK) vs. Minnesota Twins

Eflin is another mid-tier arm that I really like today. Like the other guys, he’s coming off a win in his first start of the season and was equally as impressive with 9 strikeouts in only 5 innings against the Nationals.  The Twins have some power in their lineup but are losing their DH today in a National League park. It’s hard to ignore his potential here, and the ownership should be spread out amongst these mid-tier pitchers considering how much pitching depth we have.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms and SP2s

Brad Keller (7.6k FD, 7.2k DK ) @ Detroit Tigers

Keller has been solid, but not spectacular in his first two starts for the Royals. Both starts have been quality starts and while Keller doesn’t have huge strikeout numbers, his .920 WHIP is impressive. He has a great matchup against a Detroit team that has been bad offensively early on this season and will be loaded with right-handed hitters.

Wade LeBlanc (6.2k FD, 6.3k DK) @ Chicago White Sox

LeBlanc is a control pitcher who relies on ground balls and pitching to contact. He profiles much the same way as Mike Leake, who was able to keep Chicago off balance yesterday with a lot of offspeed pitches. I’d rather use LeBlanc as an SP2 on DK that risk using him as the only pitcher on FanDuel. He doesn’t have much of a ceiling, but he has proven to be a serviceable starter the last few years who can shut down an offense.

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can of the Night

Kyle Hendricks @ Milwaukee Brewers

Hendricks is not really a gas can, but I have been driving the “Kyle Hendricks is overrated” train for a few years now. His numbers don’t jump off the page as a guy you would normally target, but his strikeout rate has been declining for several years and he relies on pitching to contact a lot more often. He gave up 22 homers last year and 2 long balls in his first start of the season last week.

Hendricks has the challenge of taking on a really good Milwaukee team with a ton of power. This series has had a ton of runs scored in the first two games, and I expect there to be a lot more scored today. Left-handed bats should be able to tee off on Hendricks’ mediocre fastball or sit on his slider and I expect the Brewers to get to him early.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

Here’s where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

Cash Rankings

1. Mike Clevinger
2. Max Scherzer
3. Domingo German
4. Brad Keller (SP2)

GPP Rankings

1. Mike Clevinger
2. Domingo German
3. Max Scherzer
4. Brad Peacock
5. Brad Keller 

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!