MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks: Monday, April 8th, 2019
By Joe Metz
Welcome back to the MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article. In this article, I will run you through the best stacks to build your cash and GPP lineups around and narrow down your player pool!
After a handful of slates without an ace to choose from, we got the opportunity of rostering Max Scherzer, Mike Clevinger and a few other notable arms during Sunday’s main slate. While the ace is typically one that dictates a slate, it was none other than a min-priced Clint Frazier who broke the MLB Daily Fantasy slate.
After hitting his first home run on Saturday, Frazier went yard twice en route to a 4-hit game in what was arguably his best game of his young career. On top of that, Gary Sanchez was under 5% owned throughout cash games and went yard THREE times.
While we can only pray for that production from our lineups tonight, we do have a healthy 8-game slate on tap with the Braves heading into the infamous Coors Field. Below is the list of matchups with their implied run totals in parenthesis;
Oakland Athletics (5.1) @ Baltimore Orioles (4.5)
Minnesota Twins (4.2) @ Philadelphia Phillies (4.9)
New York Yankees (3.4) @ Houston Astros (4.2)
Los Angeles Dodgers (4.1) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4.0)
Seattle Mariners (4.7) @ Kansas City Royals (4.4)
Atlanta Braves (5.1) @ Colorado Rockies (5.6)
San Diego Padres (3.4) @ San Francisco Giants (3.7)
Milwaukee Brewers (4.3) @ Los Angeles Angels (4.3)
Now that the IRTs are in front of us, this will help us narrow down our list of stacks – let’s get to it!
MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Primary Cash Game Stack: Colorado Rockies
Finally! We have our first Coors Field slate in the stacking article. The Rockies will have the chance to square off with the Rocky (ha!) Julio Teheran, who’s 2018 numbers are below;
Julio Teheran | ATL
K%: 22.4%
SwStr%: 11.2%
SIERA: 4.67
wOBA: 0.269 vs RHB / 0.320 vs LHB
FB%: 41.9%
Hard%: 36.5%
The numbers above paint a few different pictures. Teheran is fully capable of limiting offenses (as evident by his impressive wOBA numbers), but is also fully capable of getting lit up and hanging on by a thread. His SIERA was almost a full point higher than his ERA, and his rising FB% is alarming heading into Coors Field. Below are the pieces of the Rockies that I will be targeting in cash games:
(1) Charlie Blackmon (FD: $4,000 / DK: $5,200)
(2) Trevor Story (FD: $4,300 / DK: $5,400)
(3) Nolan Arenado (FD: $4,300 / DK: $5,400)
(6) David Dahl (FD: $4,300 / DK: $5,100)
While the above players aren’t cheap, I think it is an absolute necessity to target at least one in cash. If you are paying down for a pitcher, fit more than one. Last season against righties, all four of the above players posted ISOs over and wOBAs north of 0.350. David Dahl‘s numbers are perhaps the most impressive (0.389 wOBA, 0.286 ISO), but he is currently questionable after leaving yesterday’s game early. If he suits up, he’s the top play of the stack as he’s off to a scorching start at the plate.
Charlie Blackmon is criminally under-priced on FanDuel for the trio of factors in his favor; batting leadoff, Coors Field, and Julio Teheran’s struggles against lefties (5.96 xFIP, 6.91 BB/9, 38.4% hard%). Finally, if you want to differentiate your stack, Mark Reynolds and Ian Desmond are both only $3,000 on FanDuel and while they do not posses quite the upside of Blackmon, Arenado and company, they have as good as chance as anyone to go yard in Coors.
MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Secondary Cash Game Stack: Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics are fresh off of scoring 8 runs and taking a loss against the Astros and step into yet another nice spot against the DFS-troll himself, Andrew Cashner. His 2018 numbers are below:
Andrew Cashner | BAL
K%: 14.5%
SwStr%: 6.8%
SIERA: 5.33
wOBA: 0.370 vs RHB / 0.361 vs LHB
FB%: 36.2%
Hard%: 32.5%
While those numbers are extremely tough on the eyes, some of them have been even worse through his first two starts of 2019. Through those two, Cashner has surrendered a 0.415 wOBA to righties, with an overall SIERA of 6.07 and a 45.2% hard%. The below pieces of the A’s are those that I will target;
(1) Robbie Grossman (FD: $2,700 / DK: $4,000)
(2) Matt Chapman (FD: $3,700 / DK: $4,800)
(4) Khris Davis (FD: $4,000 / DK: $5,200)
(6) Marcus Semien (FD: $3,200 / DK: $4,500)
The first thing that sticks out are the ridiculous pricing discrepancies between the FD and DK pricing. Not a single one of the players above is less than $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel than they are on DraftKings, which could be a sign they’ll be chalky.
On top of that, both Matt Chapman and Khris Davis posted wOBAs north of 0.375 against righties with ISOs over 0.250 (Davis held a 0.315 ISO vs RHP last season). Both are also reasonably priced.
Robbie Grossman is red hot at the dish after going 3-5 with a home run, 3 RBIs and a double yesterday and should be a shoe-in for 5 at-bats tonight, while Marcus Semien has started off the season batting 0.298 and has a high ceiling for a reasonable price.
If you want to take it one step further for some value, Kendrys Morales could find himself in the lineup tonight and posted a 0.365 wOBA and 0.220 ISO against righties last season and comes at an extremely cheap price tag.
MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Primary GPP Stack: Seattle Mariners
Is there a hotter team to start the season than the Seattle Mariners? The answer is no and surprisingly, they are continuously going under-owned in both cash and GPP formats. That may, however, change tonight against Homer Bailey, who’s 2018 numbers are below:
Homer Bailey | KAN
K%: 15.2%
SwStr%: 8.8%
SIERA: 4.82
wOBA: 0.362 vs RHB / 0.394 vs LHB
FB%: 33.0%
Hard%: 40.9%
Those numbers are all down-right atrocious and the only reason that the Mariners are not a primary cash stack is because of the higher IRT for the A’s, but the below stack is fully viable in all formats and have the GPP-winning potential that you’re looking for:
(1) Mallex Smith (FD: $3,600 / DK: $4,300)
(2) Mitch Haniger (FD: $4,500 / DK: $4,600)
(3) Domingo Santana (FD: $4,100 / DK: $4,300)
(4) Jay Bruce (FD: $3,500 / DK: $4,200)
If there’s anything that will deter people from this stack, it’d be paying $4,100 for the likes of Domingo Santana, but he currently holds a 0.525 wOBA and 0.417 ISO so far against righties. While that is a bit unsustainable, his 0.352 wOBA against righties last season show his potential.
Mitch Haniger posted a 0.365 wOBA and 0.219 ISO against righties in 2018 with an average exit velocity of 90.3 mph, while Mallex Smith posted a 0.336 wOBA but only a 16.8% strikeout rate and comes with a heap of stolen base upside.
Jay Bruce had a down year last season, but has posted a 0.222 ISO so far against righties this season. To add on to the stack, SS Tim Beckham has been scorching hot, posting a 0.502 wOBA and 0.300 ISO against righties to start the season. Keep an eye on his health, as he was pulled from yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness.
MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks – Secondary GPP Stack: Washington Nationals
I think that this game could be a slate-breaker, as both Anibal Sanchez and Vince Velasquez are prone to getting hit hard, but if I had to side with one, it’d be the Washington Nationals, as Anibal Sanchez’s 2018 was too impressive to write off just yet. Instead, the numbers for Vince Velasquez last season are below;
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Vince Velasquez | PHI
K%: 25.6%
SwStr%: 11.4%
SIERA: 4.00
wOBA: 0.274 vs RHB / 0.377 vs LHB
FB%: 40.8%
Hard%: 32.8%
VV is a flamethrower and while that heightens his strikeout upside, it also heightens the chance of surrendering hard contact and fly balls, as evident by the numbers above. The lefties are the prime pieces to use here, but there are some righties I would consider too:
(1) Adam Eaton (FD: $3,100 / DK: $4,000)
(3) Anthony Rendon (FD: $4,600 / DK: $4,200)
(4) Juan Soto (FD: $3,900 / DK: $4,800)
Juan Soto leads the way here, as he posted a 0.413 wOBA, 0.231 ISO and a ridiculous 17.6% walk rate as a rookie last season against righties. His patience at the plate is second to none and I would peg him as my top GPP play of the slate, as I expect virtually nobody to look at Washington.
Adam Eaton comes in at a beautiful price in the lead-off spot and possesses a nice power/speed combo with his 0.375 wOBA and 0.373 BABIP from the 2018 season. Should he find a way on base, we could see him take off once or twice and get in scoring position for the likes of Anthony Rendon, who posted a 0.385 wOBA and 0.211 ISO last season against righties.
While his spot in the lineup is far from a guarantee, Matt Adams would be a great way to differentiate even more, as he posted a 0.349 wOBA and 0.253 ISO against righties last season. If he finds his way in the lineup in the 5-6 spot, we could even make the argument for him being a cash play at a cheap price tag.