MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday, 4/8

MLB DFS Pitching: Monday, 4/8

Welcome back to the Monday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. Today I’ll be adding FanDuel pricing and expanding this article to cover both FanDuel and DraftKings pitching options.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

I wanted to provide a glossary of terms for some of the sabermetrics that I use to analyze pitching each and every day. Here are some of the stats that I use most frequently and a quick explanation.

WHIP = Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched

This is a valuable metric when playing Draftkings as pitchers are penalized for hits and walks unlike the scoring system on FanDuel which only penalizes earned runs.

FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching

This metric attempts to estimate what a pitcher’s ERA would be if they got average results on balls that are put into play. Basically trying to strip away the positive or negative effects of good/bad defense behind them or just bad luck on balls hit weakly that fall in for hits.

SS% = Swinging Strike Percentage

The percentage of pitches that a pitcher gets the opposing hitter to swing and miss. Some people don’t love this stat but I do. It generally correlates well with high strikeout percentages and helps us identify pitchers with an arsenal of pitches that can rack up Ks.

GB% = Ground Ball Percentage

Ground balls are good because they can never be home runs. We want to target pitchers with higher ground ball rates whenever possible.

K% = Strikeout Percentage

Percentage of batters that the pitcher has struck out divided by the total number of hitters they’ve faced.

K/9 = Strikeouts per 9 innings

Obviously, strikeouts are one of the most important DFS stats we are looking for. We typically want to target guys who average more than a K per inning or 9 K/9 or better.

There may be some other terms I use this season. I encourage you if you ever want to dive deeper into pitching to check out FanGraphs and dig into as many stats as you want. Your head will spin, it’s so much fun!

MLB DFS Pitching: First Look

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here on the introductory slide, usually accompanied by Vegas odds. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Today we have an 8-game main slate that locks at 7:05.  Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second, Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis.

Marco Estrada (-118) vs. Andrew Cashner (clash of the Titans!)

Anibal Sanchez vs. Vince Velasquez (-130)

Masahiro Tanaka vs. Justin Verlander (-155)

Hyun-Jin Ryu (-105) vs. Miles Mikolas

Felix Hernandez (-110) vs. Homer Bailey

Julio Teheran vs. Kyle Freeland (-125)

Eric Lauer vs. Madison Bumgarner (-125)

Jhoulys Chacin vs. Trevor Cahill (-105)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces

Hyun-Jin Ryu (9.4k FD, 9.7k DK) @ St. Louis

There’s only one high-priced arm that I trust today and it’s Ryu. It might seem like a bad matchup based on the solid right-handed hitters in the Cardinals lineup, but Ryu has been as tough on righties and he has been on lefties. His first two starts have been excellent, and he’s got the type of strikeout potential we want from our ace.

He also has great control and the ability to keep hitters off-balance with good off speed pitches. I think the Dodger bats get to Mikolas and give him the offense he needs to get the win and quality start on FanDuel, too.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Plays

Justin Verlander (10.7k FD, 10.4k DK) @ New York Yankees

Verlander has to take on the mighty Yankee lineup today, a tall task for even the most elite major league pitchers. He has to do in Yankee stadium, too, a hitters’ ballpark. Being a flyball pitcher, there is a serious concern with home runs today against this awesome and powerful lineup for the Bronx Bombers.

However, targeting good pitchers against good offenses is one way to get leverage in GPPs. Verlander still has excellent strikeout stuff, and he’s just as likely to go out and strike out 10 tonight as he is to get lit up by the Yanks. He’s too risky for cash, but he makes for a great GPP play.

Masahiro Tanaka (9.7 FD, 8.7k DK) vs. Houston

Tanaka is actually the pitcher that I prefer from this game. Yes, he also has an issue with home runs and is facing a really talented Houston offense, but he’s looked great in his first two starts. He’s a good bit cheaper than JV on both sites, and I fear the Houston offense less than I do the Yankees offense.

Tanaka has the second highest swinging strike rate on the slate (after Verlander) and I could see him racking up some K’s against this right-handed heavy Astros lineup today.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms and SP2s

Eric Lauer (7.1k FD, 7.5k DK)

Lauer is the most appealing SP2 for me on this slate. He gets a matchup with the Giants, a team he shut down on opening day. He’s not a guy I would usually use if there were more options, but the matchup is good and we don’t have a lot of other good spots for cheap arms. I think he’s got a safe floor here and the likelihood he gets lit up is low. Hopefully, he can go 5-6 innings and pick up enough K’s to make value and allow us to fit in the bats that we want.

Kyle Freeland (6.8k DK ONLY) vs. Atlanta

Listen, this price on DraftKings has me interested. Freeland is a really good pitcher who happens to have better home splits than road splits (unusual for a guy who pitches at Coors Field). There aren’t many people who will use a pitcher in Coors Field, but I am one of them. The Braves lineup is stacked and it’s obviously a tough matchup for him tonight, but he’s shown in his first starts that he is becoming a legitimate starter in this league and I will fire him up on DK.

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

Here’s where I give you my rankings for both cash games and GPP’s and try to give my approach to how I will handle pitching on FanDuel and DraftKings.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

On DK, I’ll be pairing Ryu and Lauer in cash games, while mixing in some shares of Tanaka and Freeland for GPPs.

On FD, Ryu is the cash game guy for me and my favorite cheap play is Lauer, since Freeland is 8.5k on FD.

Cash Games

1. Ryu
2. Tanaka
3. Lauer (SP2)

GPPs

1. Tanaka
2. Freeland (DK only)
3. Lauer
4. Verlander

Thanks for reading and make sure to come back for all the great MLB content here at FantasyCPR! Good luck in your contests!