2019 Masters: DraftKings Millionaire Maker Picks

Welcome back for round two of my 2019 Masters breakdown. In this article, I will be looking for low-owned options that may help you bring home the grand prize of $1,000,000 in the Fantasy Golf Millionaire. If you haven’t checked out my in-depth analysis on the DraftKings pricing with my picks and values, you can find it here:

The Masters: PGA DraftKings DFS Picks

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DraftKings’ “$4M Fantasy Golf Millionaire, or the Millionaire Maker, is live once again for the first major of the year. The contest features $4 million in total payouts with more than 235,000 entries. Each participant can enter up to 150 times so there are going to be lots of different roster builds.

In the upcoming slides, I am going to take a look at some golfers who shouldn’t carry too much ownership. Having players who aren’t too popular is key in large field tournaments like the Millionaire Maker.

For any chance to cash high, you are going to need to have all six of your golfers make the cut. In such a small field with 50 players and ties making the cut, it is easier to have 6/6 this week.

Your player pool for the week should only feature about 60-65 legit options. This spreadsheet should help weed out some of the players that should not be on your radar:

It has each players odds on Bovada, and their recent finishes at events that have correlated to high finishes at The Masters. The charts on the left show the top-20 finishers at the Masters from 2017, and 2018. High finishes at the Genesis, Sentry, and WGC Mexico came up the most when analyzing last year’s Masters. Each tournament listed was played prior to The Masters.

In the $10k+ range, everyone is going to be on two players: Rory McIlroy ($11,600), and Dustin Johnson ($11,300). Though they are expected to be two of the higher owned players this week, rolling with one of the two is a good bet. Given both of their recent form and how they have fared in the correlated events, they are safe plays. All this means is that you have to differentiate with your last five spots.

One build that may not be too popular is starting your team with both McIlroy and DJ. It seems crazy, I know, but you are still able to fill out a team with four decent options down the board. This start leaves you with an average just over $6,700 per spot. I’d much rather prefer to stack one of these two with another player in the $10k+ range:

Justin Thomas $10,200

Pairing Rory McIlroy or Dustin Johnson with JT is not going to be a popular build whatsoever. Most people are completely off of Justin Thomas in general following back to back finishes outside of the top-25.

Thomas does, however, rate out well when looking at the comparable courses. He finished inside the top-10 in the Genesis, Sentry, and WGC Mexico this season. That stuck out to me when creating the spreadsheet.

The news about Thomas battling an injury does not scare me. He ranks inside the top-10 when looking at SG: Approach, SG: Around, and SG: Tee to Green.

Thomas has made the cut in 39 of his last 40 events with his only miss coming in the Open Championship. We know that JT can finish high, so why not take a chance on him as a low owned option this week in DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker.

He is 3/3 in his career at the Masters finishing better each and every year. Look for that number to continue climbing this year.

These next couple ranges are fairly easy to breakdown. Right when we drop down under that $10k range, we have a fan favorite in Rickie Fowler. Based off of his name value, already having a win under his belt, and everyone watching him at Valero last week, we can expect Fowler to carry some ownership. I would imagine that his number will get up around 15-20% by the Thursday morning.

Paul Casey will also be popular in this second-tier of players. Casey has been on a great run and really does rate out well when looking at comparable courses. He won for the second straight year at the Valspar Championship and came T3 in Mexico. Casey also finished inside the top-25 at the Genesis, and Sentry.

If you’re all in on Casey, just understand that lots of others are as well. He is a fantastic cash game play but will be around 20% owned in tournaments. If you’re going to have him in your core, be sure to make the build around him unique. It may even be a good idea to build from Paul Casey down, as many will have him paired with someone in the $10k+ range.

(Tommy Fleetwood will be somewhat popular as well)

Expect Brooks Koepka and Jason Day to be under owned in this range. I would not be surprised if Day came in this week under 8% owned.. Koepka will probably find himself around 10-12%. Day sticks out a bit more than Koepka when looking at the comparable courses but neither stick out. This middle range is hard to judge but there hasn’t been too much talk of either so far this week.

Bryson DeChambeau $9,300

It seems like everyone has jumped off of the Bryson bandwagon as of late. There hasn’t been much talk of him at all this week. DeChambeau doesn’t have very many high finishes in recent memory which has knocked him off of the radar. His last top-10 finish on the PGA Tour was at the Sony Open the second week of 2019.

DeChambeau could be a nice pivot off of Tommy Fleetwood and Paul Casey, who both should be popular this week. DeChambeau had two high finishes earlier this year with two top-15’s in the comparable courses (Genesis/Sentry). I like Bryson’s upside and he is worth a look in the Millionaire Maker this week, as he shouldn’t be too popular in this range.

Bubba Watson $8,800

I already hit on Jordan Spieth in my last article as he will be a staple in my lineups, but let’s look at Bubba Watson. Priced within $200 of Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama, and Francesco Molinari should drive his ownership down.

The course history is there, as he has won The Masters twice in the past seven years (2012, and 2014). Heading into Augusta last year coming off of a missed cut in 2017, Watson got back into form with a T5 in 2018. Prior to that top-5 finish, Watson had a win at the Genesis Open, and a T9 in Mexico, both comparable courses we are looking at this week.

Watson’s history at The Masters may have some people riding him, but don’t expect him to be much over 12% owned this week in the Millionaire Maker.

There has been lots of talk surrounding Matt Kuchar leading up to The Masters priced just under $8,000. Expressing how high his ownership will be may lead some to believe it will be driven down. That’s probably not the case. I could see Kuchar potentially surpassing 25% ownership in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker.

He’s had a great season, but there’s really not much there when looking at the comparable courses. Sure, there’s the T19 at Sentry Tournament of Champions. But the field only had 33 players in it.

It looks good on paper, but thats borderline getting cut in a normal event. Fading Kuchar could sting if he ends up finishing high, but I’m going to fade him. Let’s look at some pivots off of Kuchar in this sub-$8k range:

Patrick Cantlay $7,700

Priced just $200 below Kuchar, is Patrick Cantlay. He missed the cut last year in his first attempt since his T47 as an amature back in 2012. Cantlay is another player who is typically popular, but hasn’t been as of late.

The last time we saw him in full field was at THE PLAYERS where he finished outside of the top-100. Before that? A T6 at WGC Mexico, which is a leaderboard I’ve been looking at when making my picks this week. Cantlay will go overlooked in this range by Kuchar, Leishman, and Sergio making for a good play in the Millionaire Maker.

Alternate Option: Gary Woodland ($7,500) has not made the cut at The Masters since 2014, meaning not many people will be onboard. His second place finish at Sentry sticks out to me. Don’t expect him to be over 8% owned.

From $7,000-$7,400 is going to be one of the lowest owned ranges. It’s hard to get a feel for any of these players, even though a majority of them find themselves amongst the best in the world. We see a bunch of players here who mainly showcase their game on the European Tour, such as Matthew Fitzpatrick, Eddie Pepperell, Haotong Li, Tyrrell Hatton, and Thorbjorn Olesen.

These golfers make this range very interesting because the average golf fan who is depositing money into DraftKings this week doesn’t have the first clue who these guys are. Sure, they can look and see how many cuts they have made and pull up their log, but that doesn’t mean that they will have confidence to roster them. These players from the European Tour just, aren’t on their radar.

Haotong Li $7,200

One of the most intriguing names listed above, is China’s Haotong Li. He made his Masters debut last year coming in at T32 after shooting a 69 in the opening round. Li is a force off the tee and is inside this fields top-10 in driving distance. In a smaller field at the WGC Mexico that we are using as a comparison, Li finished in a tie for 19th.

Haotong has showed up in big events around the world as well so we know that he can play with anyone when he is on. Most recently, Li fell to Dustin Johnson where he finished second at the Saudi International.

A little over a year ago, Li burst onto the scene with a win at Dubai in a star-studded field. He makes for a high risk/high reward play on DraftKings, which is exactly what we’re looking for in the Millionaire Maker.

This is where it gets fun. The bottom range is a crucial part of the week with everyone expected to pay up for either Rory McIlroy, or Dustin Johnson. If these two are paired together, as we talked about earlier, this range will have to be utilized to perfection.

Nobody outside of Kisner should be that highly owned down here so if you have a feel for someone in this range, don’t let ownership play a factor.

Last year, Cameron Smith was the primer play down. Costing $6,900 on DraftKings, Smith  rewarded his owners with a T5. So what was his form like heading in when looking at the comparable courses?

Well, his T6 at the 2018 Genesis sure didn’t hurt. As you can see on the spreadsheet embedded on the first slide, five of the top 19 finishers at The Masters had a top-10 at the Genesis Open.

Si Woo Kim $6,700

If we’re looking for last years Cam Smith, look no further than Si Woo Kim. The Genesis correlation comes into play here as Kim finished third there a few months back. He is also coming off of a week where he had another top-5 finish, losing his lead at the Valero Texas Open.

Kim has the putter to contend here as well, ranking third on tour in One-Putt Percentage, and second in Overall Putting Average. Si Woo Kim is a nice play down here coming off of a T24 at The Masters a year ago.

Also, how can’t we take him after the beautiful shot to close it out on 18 at Valero. If you didn’t see it, Kim’s ball sat down on a rock right on the edge of the water. Instead of taking a drop, he took off the socks and shoes and plopped it on the green. Probably increased his payday in the long-run too.

Alternate Option: Patton Kizzire ($6,500) is a player that you could really come in at less than 2% owned. I haven’t heard  single thing about him this week, but did notice him on my chart with his top-10 at Sentry