MLB Bets To Win – Tuesday April 9 – Seattle Rolls!
By John Fazio
Good day from MLB Bets handicapping central. Monday was a winning day and we are back at it again on a full Tuesday slate.
MLB Bets was a small winner yesterday increasing the season to a +11.99 units. This is based on 1 unit per game allowing for the lay and take.
Let’s jump into the action and see if we can have another winning day. All times Eastern.
Tigers (+1.44) too much for Cleveland, 1:10 pm
Making the Indians a favorite today is purely based on last season. This is not reflective of current play and is a good opportunity to take a dog that should win.
Corey Kluber (R) goes for Cleveland. He is 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA and is now on the road. Jordan Zimmermann (R) starts for the Tigers. In 2 starts his ERA is a very impressive 0.66, and while for him they were no decisions the Tigers won both games.
This line is crazy for the way these 2 teams have started the season – but you cannot blame the oddsmaker, because the public is backing the Indians at a 69% rate as of this overnight writing. MLB Bets wants the dog split between the money line at +1.44 and the run line +1 1/2 at -1.20.
Detroit is 7-3 overall and 3-0 at home, just coming off a sweep of Kansas City. The Indians are 6-3 overall but only 1-2 on the road.
Going back a little, the last 6 times Kluber has started the Indians are 1-5. Meanwhile the Tigers are 5-0 against a right-handed starter.
Emotion says Cleveland is a better team because we have the memory of last year. MLB bets does not have that memory. It analyzes today’s facts and makes it’s best recommendation. Go Detroit.
MLB Bets To Win – Marlins harpoon the Reds
Miami (+1.63) must be taken at these odds against Cincinnati.
Granted Miami is not a good team but Cincinnati has done nothing to earn being this big of a favorite. They are 1-8 with a run differential of -13 while Miami is 3-7 with a slightly better differential.
Miami sends Jose Urena (R) to the mound while the Reds are starting Luis Castillo (R). This is an advantage for the Reds for sure as Castillo has pitched much better. However the team is only 1-1 in his starts and he personally is 0-1.
The Reds simply do not have enough firepower to warrant this kind of price. However that is just the opinion of MLB Bets because nearly 70% of the wagers are coming in on Cincinnati. We will stick with Miami plus the big juice.
Baltimore (+1.39) downs Oakland, 7:05 pm
The A’s are reeling early in the season having lost 4 in a row. The Birds still have the stigma of last year on them plus the fresh blowout losses to the Yankees.
However the Orioles are 5-5 on the year while Oakland is 6-8 including 0-4 on the road. Baltimore should have enough to win again tonight.
The public is all over Oakland at nearly an 80% rate and this should keep the line high allowing a nice plus on the home team. Memories of last year are still very strong.
Starting for Oakland is Brett Anderson (L). He has pitched well posting an early season ERA of 2.38. However, Oriole starter John Means (L) has been even better showing an ERA of only 1.59.
Better pitching matchup, better team, at home, public on the other side, and Oakland is 0-6 in Anderson’s last 6 away starts. MLB Bets wants to ride this advantage with the home dog by splitting the bet between the money line at +1.39 and the run line +1 1/2 runs at -1.15.
MLB Bets To Win – Mariners sink the Royals
Seattle (-1.07) pounds Kansas City, 8:15 pm
Seattle is for real at least at the present time, and that is the only time that matters day-to-day. This team can score a lot of runs and therefore are never out of a game early.
The Mariners are 10-2 overall with a run differential of +37, best in baseball. The Royals have now lost 7 games in a row.
MLB Bets likes to ride these kinds of trends. No reason to switch gears yet especially with this low of a line.
Seattle starts Marco Gonzales (L) who is 3-0 posting a 3.20 ERA. Kansas City starter Jakob Junis (R) has posted an ERA of 4.63 so far this season.
Being on the road does not phase the Mariners as they are 5-1 both home and away. The Royals are losing everywhere right now.
Atlanta (+1.15) clubs Colorado, 8:40 pm
Both pitchers, Max Fried (L) for the Braves and German Marquez (R) for the Rockies, have pitched great with tiny ERA’s. However Colorado is on a winless streak at home while Atlanta is finding its groove.
MLB Bets realizes this is a short-term trend only, but with 2/3 of the public backing the Rockies and the line going up Atlanta becomes a value side and should be played. Colorado is now 1-4 in their last 5 home games when facing a left hander.
Meanwhile Atlanta after a slow start to the season have now won 5 of their last 6 and have momentum and confidence on their side. Let’s stick with the Braves and see if they can continue to give the Rockies fits and score us another winner.
MLB Bets To Win – Padres Embarrass the Giants Again
San Diego (-1.18) glides by San Francisco, 9:45 pm
The Padres erased a 5-0 deficit yesterday en route to a 6-5 win in true contender style. This new look Padres team is not to be ignored.
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Joey Lucchesi (L) starts for San Diego and what a start to the season. He is 2-0, throwing over 10 innings not allowing a run. Derek Holland (L) deals for the Giants. In 2 starts he is 0-1 and the team is 0-2. He has posted a 5.00 ERA.
Los Angeles Angels (+1.15) stymies Milwaukee, 10:07 pm
Many people were saying the Brewers would control this series as the better team. This is not the same Angel team as in the past under their new manager.
Freddy Peralta (R) gets the nod for the Brewers sporting a 3.27 ERA. Matt Harvey (R) starts for the Angels having pitched one very good game and having one very bad outing.
MLB Bets wants to take the home team again and fade the public who are supporting Milwaukee with 70% of the bets. With this pitching match-up we would expect the line to inch higher and the public % to remain high. MLB Bets is on the Halos again just as yesterday.
MLB Bets Recap For Tuesday April 9:
Detroit +1.44 and +1 1/2 runs -1.20
Miami +1.63
Baltimore +1.39 and +1 1/2 runs -1.15
Seattle -1.07
Atlanta +1.15
San Diego -1.18
LA Angels +1.15
Hopefully most of these trends continue and gives MLB Bets another plus day.