MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday, 4/9

MLB DFS Pitching: Tuesday, 4/9

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. Today I’ll be adding FanDuel pricing and expanding this article to cover both FanDuel and DraftKings pitching options.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

I have been including a glossary of advanced pitching statistics for the first few weeks of the season, but for the sake of time and space, I’m going to jump right into the matchup and Vegas info. If you are looking for more info about sabermetrics and pitching terms just check here for an exhaustive list.

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here on the introductory slide, usually accompanied by Vegas odds. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article. Today we have an 11-game main slate that locks at 1:05.  Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second, Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces

Jacob DeGrom (12.2k FD, 11.6k DK) vs. Minnesota

There are some good pitchers on today’s slate, but no one who compares to DeGrom in my opinion. He’s picked up right where left off last season when he won the NL Cy Young, striking out 24 hitters in his first 13 innings without giving up an earned run yet.

I really don’t see any reason you wouldn’t play him in cash games on both sites, as it’s not that hard to fit him on FanDuel (especially with the 500 dollar Chris Davis gimmick).  Finding a cheap SP2 on DK is more challenging, but again I think you just pay up for him as your SP2 and don’t overthink it.

Minnesota has some tough hitters, but Degrom feels matchup proof right now and will get to face an American league pitcher for at least two at-bats (good luck Kyle Gibson!). He’s pitching at home and has both the highest floor and ceiling on the slate.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Plays

German Marquez (9.6k FD, 8.8k DK) vs. Atlanta

I’ve been a Marquez truther going back to last July and I’m not about to stop playing him even though he is facing a good offense in a bad ballpark. Marquez should be very low owned today as people often refuse to play pitchers at Coors Field.

The truth is that Marquez has great strikeout stuff and solid ground ball numbers. He’s also had plenty of solid outings at home despite the negative park factor. He’s almost as tough on righties as Jacob Degrom in terms of wOBA allowed and should face 6-7 righties in the Atlanta lineup tonight.

Zack Greinke (9.3k FD, 8.9k DK) vs. Texas

Greinke has had two very opposite performances this season. He got lit up by a good Dodgers lineup on opening day and then bounced back in a big way with 10 strikeouts (and he hit two home runs on offense) against the Padres. Tonight is another boom/bust spot as he faces the Rangers, a team with a high strikeout rate, but also a ton of power from the left side of the plate. I’m interested in him tonight, as he still has solid numbers across the board and gets to face a Texas team that is striking out 29% of the time.

Joey Luchessi (8.6k FD, 9.3k DK)

Luchesssi has a great matchup against the Giants, but his price has been adjusted to reflect that. He’s going to need to pitch more than 5 innings to pay off this tag tonight, but I still have interest in him based on how effective he’s been in his first two starts.

My interest is mainly on FanDuel, where he’s considerably cheaper than Greinke and Marquez. He just really needs to get through 6 innings so we can have a shot at the quality start and a win, and get all 10 of those combined FanDuel points. I think it’s certainly within the range of outcomes tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms and SP2s

Mike Minor (6.6k FD, 6.3k DK)

This is tough because I really like Minor as a pitcher and nailed his big start against the Astros last week. I really want to use him tonight, but I have to admit the matchup and ballpark are both not in his favor. Arizona has some really good right-handed hitters and Minor is a sizeable underdog against Greinke and a good offense. I’ll have to dig into his advanced pitching data and how it matches up with the Arizona hitters before making a final call.

John Means (5.5k FD, 4.5k DK)

This is really only a DK SP2 play based on the crazy low price tag. On a one-pitcher site like FanDuel, please don’t pay all the way down to Means.  He’s an unproven rookie who is getting a chance to enter the rotation for Baltimore and immediately gets a tough matchup against Oakland. However, his minor league stats are impressive and I think he’s a solid chance of going 5 innings tonight and easily paying off his price tag. Paying down for him will allow you to fit Degrom and the bats you want (of which there are many.)

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

Here’s where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

Today my preferred pairing on DK is Degrom and Means, while there’s zero chance that I don’t play Degrom in cash on FanDuel.

Cash Games

1. Degrom, Degrom, Degrom
2. Joey Luchessi
3. John Means (SP2 on DK)

GPPS

1. German Marquez (ownership)
2. Jacob Degrom
3. Zack Greinke
4. Joey Luchessi
5. John Means

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!