FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 4/10 – The Final Countdown

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 4/10 – Last Regular Season Slate!

Welcome back to the FINAL REGULAR SEASON edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

My goal when I created the Breakdown was to make this an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.

When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

I just want to take a minute to thank all of you who have read this column this year. Even with a crazy schedule for the first few weeks of baseball season, I was able to keep writing the Breakdown only because I knew so many of you relied on it for your first look at NBA slates.

I appreciate all the awesome feedback and support I got this season and I really enjoyed covering the NBA this season here at FantasyCPR.

Tonight we have a rather large 11-game main slate on FanDuel that doesn’t lock until 8;00. With so many games and so many potential players resting or being ruled out close to lock, I would really recommend practicing some responsible bankroll management tonight and for much of the remainder of the season.

That doesn’t mean you can’t still have some fun chasing some small scale GPPs or trying to crush those games. And don’t worry, the playoff will be here soon enough and we will be back to some tightened rotations and more predictable outcomes.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Dwayne Wade (5333) and Dirk Nowitzki (4141)

You all know how much I hate narratives, but I also remember being burned badly by not playing Kobe Bryant on the last day of the regular season two years ago when he scored a million points and broke the slate.

I can easily get behind Wade here, as he’s played well all season and despite the fact the Heat were eliminated from contention for the 8-seed in the East, I think his teammates all want to send him out on a high note with a win against Brooklyn, who has already clinched a playoff spot. Wade’s solid usage and scoring rates make a great play at this special price regardless of the narrative.

Dirk, on the other hand, has not looked like classic Dirk that often this season. He did just pour in 30 actual points against the Suns, but I wouldn’t expect the Spurs to just roll over for him tonight as Utah did for Kobe a few years ago.

Dirk is one of the most popular players in NBA history among his fellow players and fans, so everyone wants to see go out on top, but I wouldn’t be expecting him to go crazy or anything. Regardless, his price and ownership make him a must play in cash games on FD tonight.

Nikola Vucevic (10200)

The Hornets are in the playoffs, but they can keep Charlotte out by beating them tonight. Vuc has dominated Charlotte all season long (like a lot of centers) and I think he’s the safest center on the slate.  If for some reason they decide to rest him then we can look at Aaron Gordon at PF and I’d drop down to Mitch Robinson at C.

Kemba Walker (9800)

It’s simple, the Hornets need to win and have Detroit lose in order to sneak into the playoffs. Therefore we should see Kemba in full “Kemba-mode” tonight trying to score a billion points and put the team on his back.

I am trying to target guys in games that matter (there are only a few) so naturally using Kemba in cash makes sense since he’s one of the few top priced studs we know is going to play most of the game.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Marvin Bagley (6900)

The Kings season will be over after tonight, but one major bright spot for them going forward will be the dominance showed by their rookie big man Bagley. He posted 14.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.5 steals/blocks this year for the Kings and those numbers could have been higher if he had been giving more playing time earlier in the year. He also battled a few injuries.

Tonight he gets to try to show out against Portland, a team that has their playoff seed locked up and I want to target some good young players like Bagley in GPPs in case they decide to have a showcase game.

Mitchell Robinson (8000)

Robinson, like Bagley, is another rookie who I wrote up at the beginning of the year as a guy who will make some big-time fantasy contributions and he has indeed. He finally played his way into the starting center role late in the season and has been a dominant force on the boards and defensively.

His 2.5 blocks per game is really impressive when you consider he didn’t really play starters’ minutes that often and he’s been surprisingly efficient on offense, too.

Jeremy Lamb (6400)

If you’re looking to swerve off the Kemba chalk, or just stack the Hornets up, then consider Lamb in GPPs tonight.

He is finally back to his 26-30 minute sixth man and thriving again in it and Orlando got hammered by shooting guards this season. Even if the Hornets were to get down big at one point, you would think Lamb would get some run late into the game and could even pile up some garbage points.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

NOTE: There is a TON of value on this slate. You’re going to have to nail your value picks in order to win tonight, and I wouldn’t recommend chasing guys in questionable spots, go after the most obvious values first. Here are my favorite.

Tim Frazier (3600)

The Bucks are likely going to rest all their main guys tonight (Giannis and Lopez already ruled out) which would leave us with a situation where Frazier would play huge minutes and have a ton of point-per-dollar upside. He’s on his 30th NBA team (just kidding, it’s like 6 teams or something) but the little dude can fill it up on the stat sheet, don’t sleep on him.

Royce O’Neal (3600)

Again, the Jazz are likely to rest some of their starters, too. O’Neale is super cheap and has shown that he can produce some nice fantasy output when he gets the minutes. I kind of hate small forward tonight so I don’t mind punting with him here.

DJ Wilson (3600) and Ersan Ilyasova (3500)

Back to the Bucks for value. With Lopez definitely out, we should see both Wilson and Ilyasova get a good share of his minutes tonight. Both of them are crazy cheap and has shown they can put up some fantasy points when given the opportunity. Power Forward is going to be tough today because you have a few nice mid-tier plays, Dirk, and both of these value plays too.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings

What some players find really helpful are position rankings. I will rank my favorite players at each position based on their upside and point-per-dollar viability for cash and GPP.  Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” but it’s not an exhaustive list of my player pool by any means.

Point Guard

1. Kemba Walker
2. D.J. Augustin
3. Goran Dragic

Shooting Guard

1. Dwayne Wade
2. Jeremy Lamb
3. Monte Morris

Small Forward

1. Miles Bridges
2. Kevin Knox
3. Mo Harkless

Power Forward

1. Luke Kornet
2. Marvin Bagley III
3. Dirk Nowitzki

Center

1. Nikola Vucevic
2. Mitchell Robinson
3. Mason Plumlee

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

In fact, Stars and Scrubs is likely going to be the chalky build for NBA DFS for every slate the rest of the season with the amount of value that we are going to have on a nightly basis.

Today’s sample lineup is a HYBRID lineup with my cash core and then some of my favorite value plays and mid-tier plays mixed in there. You could play this lineup in cash and GPPs. There are a lot of injury situations that we don’t know about just yet so obviously make sure you are monitoring those throughout the day. My final lineup may end up nothing like one, I just want to warn you.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are always pivots that need to be made as the slate unfolds during the day! This is especially true the last week of the season!

PG: Kemba Walker (9800)

PG: Shaq Harrison (6100)

SG: Dwayne Wade (5333)

SG: Jeremy Lamb (6400)

SF: Miles Bridges (5300)

SF: Kevin Knox (5800)

PF: Marvin Bagley (6900)

PF: Dirk Nowitzki (4141)

C: Nikola Vucevic (10200)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests and thanks for a great NBA season!