MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks: Wednesday, April 10th, 2019
By Joe Metz
Welcome back to the MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article. In this article, I will run you through the best stacks to build your cash and GPP lineups around and narrow down your player pool!
The reaction of Jacob deGrom after an at-bat in the picture above basically sums up the entire MLB Daily Fantasy community’s reaction to his performance last night.
As I sit here writing this article, deGrom is through 3.1 innings with 6 earned runs and 85+ pitches…to the Minnesota Twins. Thankfully, he was 70%+ owned in most cash game lobbies, negating most of the damage, but that proves how volatile even the top tier pitchers can be.
With that performance in the rear view mirror, we can look towards a jam-packed 9-game main slate that should present a ton of options from an offense perspective, as there is only one ace that cracks 5 figures on FanDuel.
Below are the matchups with the team implied run totals.
Washington Nationals (4.0) @ Philadelphia Phillies (5.1)
Oakland Athletics (5.2) @ Baltimore Orioles (4.4)
Minnesota Twins (2.8) @ New York Mets (4.3)
New York Yankees (3.8) @ Houston Astros (4.3)
Los Angeles Dodgers (4.0) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4.1)
Pittsburgh Pirates (N/A) @ Chicago Cubs (N/A)
Seattle Mariners (N/A) @ Kansas City Royals (N/A)
Texas Rangers (3.9) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (4.6)
Milwaukee Brewers (4.5) @ Los Angeles Angels (4.1)
With two teams already north of 5 implied runs tomorrow and a few games still having yet to post the team’s Vegas data, let’s get into the stacks!
MLB Daily Fantasy – Primary Cash Game Stack: Oakland Athletics
Fresh off of a 13-run performance and overall shellacking of the Orioles, the A’s were originally slated to see Alex Cobb, but he was placed on the IL yesterday. How could it get better than Alex Cobb, you ask? Well, queue in Josh Rogers. While we don’t have a statistically significant amount of data to draw on Rogers, it’s worth noting that in his last two seasons between AA and AAA, he has never posted a strikeout rate above 18.1%.
On top of that, in his 17 innings this Spring, he surrendered 19 hits with 4 of them being home runs, while recording a 7:5 K:BB ratio.
Against a lineup as hot as the Oakland A’s, this could spell trouble. On top of being hot, they come at extremely reasonable price tags. Below are the core pieces to a stack that I am targeting in cash games;
(1) Robbie Grossman (FD: $2,800 / DK: $3,800)
(2) Matt Chapman (FD: $3,400 / DK: $4,200)
(4) Khris Davis (FD: $4,000 / DK: $4,900)
(6) Marcus Semien (FD: $3,100 / DK: $4,000)
Against lefties in 2018, Robbie Grossman, Matt Chapman, and Khris Davis all posted wOBAs of at least 0.350 while Davis also posted a 0.265 ISO. On top of that, both Chapman and Davis posted hard contact rates over 44%.
Marcus Semien could very well hit atop the order again seeing that he has the platoon advantage and he is fresh off of a 4-RBI game with a home run at a reasonable price.
On top of the four players above, you could also incorporate Josh Phegley, who is still dirt cheap at $2,300, regardless of his spot in the lineup. Phegley has posted 7 hits over his last four games, scoring at least 15.4 FanDuel points in all four contests. He’s a cash game lock at this price.
Jurickson Profar has also seemed to snap out of his early-season slump, as he’s recorded 5 hits in his last two games with a home run and 5 RBIs last night alone.
Just about the entire A’s offense is stackable tonight against the shaky rookie and I would expect them to be extremely chalky, making them the ideal cash game stack.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Secondary Cash Game Stack: Milwaukee Brewers
It’s always fun when I get to write up the hometown team and this is the first time this season I will be writing up the Crew. They head into their third game in Anaheim and take on Felix Peña, who’s 2018 numbers are below:
Felix Peña | LAA
K%: 21.9%
SwStr%: 10.6%
SIERA: 4.08
wOBA: 0.270 vs RHB / 0.338 vs LHB
FB%: 33.3%
Hard%: 40.1%
As you can see, Peña gets hit, and he gets hit hard. This season hasn’t been any better for him through his first two starts as his wOBA against RHB has ballooned to 0.358, while he’s surrendered a 54.5% fly-ball rate and a 45.5% hard contact rate.
This is a dangerous Milwaukee lineup, and I will be targeting the below players in my cash game stacks;
(1) Lorenzo Cain (FD: $4,100 / DK: $4,100)
(2) Christian Yelich (FD: $5,000 / DK: $5,500)
(4) Travis Shaw (FD: $3,200 / DK: $3,700)
(7) Mike Moustakas (FD: $3,100 / DK: $4,000)
Last season, Christian Yelich posted a 0.429 wOBA, 0.281 ISO and 47.9% hard contact rate against right handed pitching and easily comes in as the top play on the board. Following Yelich, Travis Shaw posted a 0.379 wOBA and 0.285 ISO against righties even while he was rather unlucky with a 0.240 BABIP.
Lorenzo Cain posted a 0.337 wOBA and 0.376 on-base percentage against righties last season and is hitting ahead of the NL MVP and a handful of other power hitters, providing a heap of run upside.
Both Shaw and Mike Moustakas (0.343 wOBA and 0.230 ISO vs RHP) have seen a dip in their price tags due to rather inconsistent play early in the season, but both have the ability to bust out of a slump when presented with the opportunity and this may be it.
If you wanted to add another piece, Eric Thames (should he see the lineup), posted a 0.268 ISO against righties last season and a 45.2% hard contact rate. He profiles more as a GPP play due to his high strikeout rate and HR-or-bust mentality, but comes at a low cost with slate-breaking upside.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Primary GPP Stack: Philadelphia Phillies
By saving so much salary with the A’s stack in both formats, that puts us in a great position to find a stud bat or two from an offense in another great spot and tonight, that offense is the Philadelphia Phillies. They square off with former teammate Jeremy Hellickson, who’s decreasing strikeout ability could spell danger against this potent offense with the second highest IRT of the night.
Jeremy Hellickson | WAS *2018 numbers
K%: 17.6%
SwStr%: 8.3%
SIERA: 4.33
wOBA: 0.310 vs RHB / 0.280 vs LHB
FB%: 33.0%
Hard%: 26.4%
The numbers above are not brutal, but I’m not buying Hellickson’s performance over his 91 2018 innings. If you take his stats one step further and look towards his last full season in 2017, he posted a 13.8% strikeout rate, 5.37 SIERA and a 5.51 xFIP. If we see those numbers come full circle, it could be a rough outing. Below are the players I will be targeting from Philly;
(2) Jean Segura (FD: $3,700 / DK: $4,000)
(3) Bryce Harper (FD: $4,700 / DK: $5,200)
(4) Rhys Hoskins (FD: $4,900 / DK: $5,300)
(6) Obudel Herrera (FD: $3,000 / DK: $3,900)
This stack comes with everything – power, speed and contact. Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins both held wOBAs north of 0.380 and ISOs over 0.250 against righties last season, while Jean Segura was a contact machine, striking out at an elite 11.6% clip.
Obudel Herrera is a player to target when they’re streaking and he’s started the season batting 0.324 and is fresh off of a 2-hit game with a home run and 2 RBIs.
To expand a bit further into this stack, adding someone like J.T. Realmuto, who posted a 0.375 wOBA and 0.217 ISO against righties last season, is a great way to leverage some ownership. This is especially true on FanDuel, where it is much less likely that players will target catchers due to the C/1B dual-eligibility.
MLB Daily Fantasy – Secondary GPP Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are an extremely boring lineup and frankly, don’t have a massive amount of attractive pieces, but this stack is much more about the matchup than anything else. While Brian Tulloch (@2LockSports) has his hankering for stacking against Jon Lester, mine is for stacking against Yu Darvish, who’s Spring Training control issues have bled into the regular season. His 2019 numbers through his first two starts are below;
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Yu Darvish | CHC
K%: 16.7%
SwStr%: 8.7%
SIERA: 8.62
wOBA: 0.278 vs RHB / 0.478 vs LHB
FB%: 15.8%
Hard%: 42.1%
The numbers above show how brutal Darvish’s start to 2019 has been. To make matters worse, his walk rate is currently sitting at 30.6% and his K:BB ratio is 6:11. Yikes. The Pirates are not a sexy stack, but they could have a ton of sneaky value tonight, starting with the core below;
(1) Adam Frazier (FD: $3,300 / DK: $3,700)
(2) Starling Marte (FD: $3,500 / DK: $3,800)
(4) Josh Bell (FD: $3,600 / DK: $3,600)
(5) Jung-ho Kang (FD: $2,700 / DK: $3,300)
If it wasn’t obvious where you can find your value on DraftKings tomorrow, it is now. In 2018, Adam Frazier led the team with a 0.364 wOBA against righties while also posting a respectable 0.199 ISO out of the leadoff spot. Both him and teammate Starling Marte (0.346 wOBA vs RHP) possess a rare combination of power and speed atop the lineup that could provide massive upside against a pitcher with severe control issues.
While Josh Bell had a bit of a down 2018, he’s posted a 0.375 wOBA and 0.300 ISO against righties so far this season and provides even more power upside at a cheap price. Jung-ho Kang is another player that wasn’t around in 2018 and while his wOBA is rather disappointing at 0.263 against righties, his 0.185 ISO and 38.9% fly-ball rate provide room for optimism here.
All four of these players should go virtually unowned and provide extreme amounts of salary relief with the upside of players that cost $1,000 more than them, making them a fantastic GPP value-stack.
Next. DraftKings Early MLB Picks April 10. dark