UEFA DFS Champions League Breakdown – Wednesday 4/10/19

The UEFA Champions League quarterfinal first legs began Tuesday with Tottenham surprisingly beating Manchester City 1-0 and Liverpool handling Porto 2-0 at Anfield.  The UEFA DFS matches continue on Wednesday with two more games. 

This UEFA DFS Champions League Breakdown will provide a comprehensive analysis of the slate putting you in the best position to make some money!

There is not really much information from a Vegas perspective that makes a huge difference on this slate.  However, it is worth noting that Barcelona are favored by 0.5 over Manchester United even though they’re playing on the road.  The goal total in that game is 2.5.

Juventus will travel to the Netherlands to take on Ajax in the second game.   The away team, Juventus, is also favored by 0.5 in this game.  You can even get Juventus +130 on the money line right now.  If I was a betting man (and I am), I’d be very intrigued by those odds.  The goal total in that game is also 2.5, meaning there is not really a better game environment to attack.

Since I am doing a team-by-team breakdown, I will discuss injury and player news in each team’s section instead of right here like I would normally.

UEFA DFS Champions League Breakdown: Barcelona

Barcelona always starts with Lionel Messi ($13,500).  I will never tell anyone to not play him in the Champions League, but I think he is more of a GPP play on Wednesday (although you can obviously play a guy like Messi in cash games).

Playing on the road against United is a difficult matchup, especially lately.  I could also see Barcelona playing somewhat defensively and holding possession in the first leg on the road and waiting to attack United until they’re playing in Spain.

It could be more wise to save $3,000 and get your Barcelona exposure from Luis Suarez ($10,500).  Obviously, the matchup is still difficult and Suarez’s floor and ceiling are both lower than Messi’s, but also remember that Suarez hasn’t scored in the UCL this year and he’s still averaging 21 FDP.

With the forward value lacking on Wednesday, he’s a really solid option as a second forward.  Something to note here is the status of Ousmane Dembele ($8,500).  Barcelona ruled him fit for the game, so he could play.  At that price, he will be a popular forward punt and I would be interested myself.

Coutinho ($9,500) is a tough sell for me with that price in this game (if he even plays).  His floor isn’t great, but he has shown some solid goal/assist upside with three 25+ FDP games in the Champions League this year.

I would prefer to save money with my Barcelona exposure again and roster Sergio Busquets ($6,500).  He has a high floor, but his upside is clearly capped.  He’s the best cheap exposure to the biggest favorite on the slate.

I do have interest in Barcelona defenders in this game.  For Jordi Alba ($7,000) everything rides on Barcelona’s formation.  If he lines up as a midfielder or winger, I want in.  If he’s actually playing as a defender on Wednesday, it’s a fade.

Gerard Pique ($6,500) got his price inflated by two goals, and odds he scores in this one aren’t great.  I’d rather take Clement Lenglet ($5,000) or Nelson Semedo ($4,500) as a punt and hope they can go 3x.

I don’t really see the need to pay for Marc ter Stegen ($6,000) on this slate as the most expensive keeper.  Manchester United can score on Barcelona tomorrow, and when he does, I don’t think he’ll make enough saves to put up a good outing at that price.

Manchester United

From what I’ve seen, Marcus Rashford ($9,000) should be good to go on Wednesday, and at that price I am definitely interested.  If you follow my EPL breakdowns, you know he’s been playing much much better since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over at Manchester United.

He also has three goals in his last four games.  Barcelona is a difficult matchup, but I would be content rostering him as my FWD2.  Anthony Martial ($8,500) looks to earn another UCL start on Wednesday.  I would reserve him for a GPP punt if you need to save the salary.

Paul Pogba ($8,500) really has not been on his A game lately, and I think I have to keep fading him until he returns to form.  With the studs at forward, paying up for an out-of-form midfielder in a tough matchup probably isn’t a great strategy.

United are hoping that Nemanja Matic ($6,500) can play in the game, especially with Ander Herrera ($6,500) very doubtful.  Neither are fantasy plays regardless.  Assuming Juan Mata ($7,000) starts for Herrera, and Jesse Lingard ($7,500) retains his spot, I would be fully out on Manchester United’s midfield on this slate.

Chris Smalling ($5,000) is the most intriguing Manchester United defender in my opinion.  He’s the right combination of cheap and productive fantasy-wise.  Smalling probably won’t benefit from a clean sheet bonus, but I still think he plays well enough to get 3x value.

I don’t mind David de Gea ($5,500) on Wednesday.  United have been playing well enough defensively to limit the damage against Barcelona.  I’m unconvinced that Barcelona will put their foot on the gas in this game, and I can see United packing it in defensively.  That said, DDG should make enough saves to avoid busting and if United can pull off the upset, his upside is big.

UEFA DFS Champions League Breakdown: Juventus

Much like Barcelona, you can’t talk Juventus without Cristiano Ronaldo ($13,000).  Ajax sit atop the Eredivisie table, but I am confident Ronaldo can break them down.  The Eredivisie is not at all known for their defense and Ajax are in first place even though they give up nearly 1.0 goals per game in a weak-ish league.

After an incredible hat trick in his last UCL game, I think Ronaldo will want to come out in this fixture and put it away in the first leg.  He’s my top play on the slate.  Mario Mandzukic ($8,500) is a solid punt against Ajax, although it might be smarter to wait until the return fixture in Italy for that.

After a really nice start to the season Paulo Dybala ($9,000) has only scored three time since the beginning of February.  I’d prefer to take the $500 savings and roster Piralem Pjanic ($8,500) who is in better form, has a better floor, and nearly as much upside.

Perhaps the best Juventus midfield play is Federico Bernardeschi ($7,500).  He was superb in Juve’s last UCL game despite his 12.6 FDP.  He is not much of a threat to score, but his playmaking ability will be useful in this game.

Juventus will be without Giorgio Chiellini ($6,500), their world-class defender.  Daniele Rugani ($4,000) will most likely slide into his starting spot, and his minimum price price should interest you.  Leonardo Bonucci ($5,000) is another Juventus defender worthy of consideration on this slate.

Wojciech Szczesny ($4,500) is normally a GK I am interested in, especially at a low price like this.  However, Ajax’s goal scoring ability this year does scare me.  They unloaded 4 on Real Madrid in their last UCL game, and they have 100(!) in 29 games in the Netherlands this season (3.44 avg).

On the road, I think Ajax breaks the seal in this game at least once which doesn’t bode well for Szczesny.  However, it’s hard to argue with this price, and remember Juventus is still a top defensive team in the world.

UEFA DFS Champions League Breakdown: Ajax

How bad does Southampton want Dusan Tadic ($9,500) back?  He spent four years their and scored 20 goals.  He has another 20 goals in just 29 league games for Ajax.  Not to mention he has six goals in his last five UCL games while leading his team to the quarterfinals.

Juventus is only giving up an average of 0.66 goals per game on the road this year, so scoring won’t come easy for Tadic on Wednesday.  However, Ajax is an offensive juggernaut in the Netherlands, and they will be anxious to show that they can still score against the best.

He has the best odds on Ajax as an anytime goal scorer followed by Hakim Ziyech ($9,000) who happens to be one of my favorite midfielders to pay up for on this slate.

The next Ajax midfielder I am interested in is Donny van de Beek ($7,500).  He has four goals and three assists in his last nine games, and he’s a nearly lock to get a full 90 minutes of playing time.  He’s also $1,000 cheaper than Lasse Schone ($8,500) who only has one goal and one assist in his last nine.  David Neres ($7,000) is also coming into this game hot with six goals in his last eight games.

Noussair Mazraoui ($5,000) is suspended due to yellow card accumulation in this game, and the news is that Joel Veltman ($4,000) will gain a start at minimum price.  Veltman will likely be low owned, and I would consider using him in GPPs as a salary-saver.

Nicolas Tagliafico ($6,500) is the Ajax defender to pay up for, especially with his attacking upside.  However, I usually prefer to save money on defenders so I would be good with Daley Blind ($5,500).

Andre Onana ($5,000) is a boom-or-bust GK option.  Like I mentioned, Ajax isn’t a great defensive team and I could really see Juventus unloading on them if they bring their A game.

However, in the round of 16, Juventus played the first leg on the road as well and were held scoreless (by a really good Atletico team).  If Juventus are going to sit back and defend, Onana could provide some low-owned value at the GK position on Wednesday.

*I made Ajax sound really good just now, but keep in mind that these stats are from a league where teams play little defense.  Juventus will provide more resistance defensively than any team in the Eredivisie is even capable of*