MLB Bets Thursday April 11 – Lovin’ Every Minute of It
By John Fazio
Good day from MLB Bets central. Wednesday was another winning day going 2-1 and earning plus odds on the dog.
Using 1 unit as a base bet for all games, and factoring in the lay and take, Wednesday’s MLB Bets was +1.23 units making the season total +13.49 units.
Lines posted and comments made are as of the time of this writing late Wednesday night. Let’s see if MLB Bets can produce another winning day. All times Eastern.
Marlins (+1.55) skewer the Reds, 12:35 pm
Well the Reds got scoring out of their system 2 nights ago and last night made a late comeback to win. MLB Bets sees this game as a pick; therefore this is a value play on Miami.
Pablo Lopez (R) goes for the Marlins tossing 1 quality start in 2 attempts. He has struck out 12 and walked only 1 so he does force his opponents to get the ball in play. That should be a positive against the Reds who normally have trouble getting hits.
Sonny Gray (R) takes the mound for the Reds. He has pitched up to expectations with an ERA just under 3, but yet he is 0-2 on the year on this under achieving Reds team. To illustrate their scoring woes, Cincinnati is 2-7 against a team with a winning percentage below .400 – and that’s counting these last 2 wins over Miami.
Again, this is a value play only as pick would be a more appropriate line. However with more than 2/3 of the bets piling in on the Reds, the linesmaker has no reason to lower this line to reasonable levels. With the Reds winning, ‘reasonable’ is subjective anyway
MLB Bets To Win – Mariners Capsize Royals
Seattle (-1.33) hammers Kansas City, 1:15 pm
Seattle has such a good team, as of now much better than the Royals, consequently laying small juice is very reasonable. The pitching stats favor the Mariners also.
Mike Leake (R) takes the hill for Seattle trying to improve on an already impressive 2.92 ERA over 2 starts. Seattle is 5-1 in Mike Leake starts and 6-0 when he is throwing against a team with a losing record.
Jorge Lopez (R) pitches for KC with a 4.09 ERA. Kansas City has given him a loss and a no decision for the effort. In fact, over the last 51 games, the Royals are 8-43 when opposing a good team (.600 or better).
MLB Bets wants to stay on the better team laying 1.40 or less. Go Mariners.
St Louis (+1.27) sweeps Los Angeles, 1:15 pm
Wow what a series for the Cardinals as they continue to give the Dodgers fits. One more win is all they are asking for and MLB Bets says they will get it.
Interesting pitching match-up today as Dodger hurler Walker Buehler (R) has a high 6.75 ERA yet the team is 2-0 in his starts. By contrast the Cardinal starter Michael Wacha (R) has a great ERA of 1.54 but his team is 0-2 in those starts.
MLB Bets believes Wacha will break thru and the Cardinals will post a win with him on the mound. It has only been the relievers skewing the mix – however all tides have turned in this series with St Louis now in control and the bullpen throwing well.
It really is amazing how certain teams match up with each-other in any given series. Los Angeles came into town with all the momentum looking dominant, only to have their offense nearly completely shut down.
Wacha has the talent to do the same thing again. The Cardinals are poised for the 4 game sweep.
MLB Bets To Win – Blue Jays down the Red Sox
Toronto (+1.76) stymies Boston, 7:10 pm
Toronto knocked off Boston 2 days ago and had a day off yesterday. Only very early in the season is seen these allowances for a rain-out with a scheduled off day right in the middle of a series.
Toronto and Boston have an odd situation when they play in Fenway. One team controls the series. They may flip which team is dominant but it usually lasts for the series they are in.
Aaron Sanchez (R) goes for Toronto. He’s got an excellent ERA of 1.64 in 2 starts and looks to build some wins around that great ERA.
Boston sends Nathan Eovaldi (R) to the mound posting a whopping 8.10 ERA in 2 starts, including striking out 6 and walking 6, along with giving up 4 home runs. Yet the line has gone up from the open of 1.77 to 1.91 with 52% of the wagers placed on Boston.
MLB Bets thinks this is wrong and wants to back Toronto. The pitching match-up is better and Toronto proved they can play with the Red Sox, winning the prior game. Betting against Boston with their inflated odds has been the biggest money maker of this young season. Following that trend until it proves to be wrong has been the way to profits.
San Diego is a possible play over Arizona – pitcher for the Padres yet to be determined
Please watch for twitter updates as plays can be added or removed during the day as odds change, pitchers change or injuries occur. The most common additions come when the favorites get bet up so high that the dog becomes a value play. Two days ago a twitter play added the Twins at +2.25. It won and turned the day profitable.
Also watch for NBA Bets-playoff edition on fantasycpr.com coming soon.
MLB Bets To Win Recap For Thursday April 11:
Miami Marlins +1.55
Seattle Mariners -1.33
St Louis Cardinals +1.27
Toronto Blue Jays +1.76
San Diego Padres a possible play pending starting pitcher and odds
As you can tell. each new series has its own dynamic and style that can be completely in opposition to what was happening before. The two biggest examples of this series group is Milwaukee and the Dodgers.
Los Angeles came in flying high and looking unstoppable. But then they were stopped. Whether or not St Louis is able to complete the 4 game sweep, the results are exactly the opposite of what was expected.
The same goes for Milwaukee. They were considered the much better team with the Angels being a 1 man show – Mike Trout. That thinking has been turned upside down with a complete domination by LAA.
MLB Bets likes to take it slow and be careful when a new series begins. Dynamics can change instantly corrupting prior trends and rendering previous thinking not only useless but dollar dangerous. Be careful on Fridays and Mondays, those mostly series starting days.
Next. Early DraftKings MLB Picks April 11: Buehler ? Buehler ?. dark