MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday, April 11 – Is it C(K)hris Davis Day
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Wednesday’s split slate started out rough with a blizzard PPD in Coors Field and some ugly weather in Chicago but the main slate was clear of those issues and we saw winning GPP scores push right back up above 200 as a result of huge offensive nights from Khris Davis and Matt Chapman who also happened to be two of the highest owned plays on the slate at 65 and 45% ownership in the $25 Home Run GPP on FantasyDraft. This was a case where the chalk dominated and if you faded their combined 70+ fantasy points you were likely on the outside looking in from a cash position.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Thursday Early Slate Pitching:
With a set of five game slates on tap today and the start of the Masters, this is like Christmas morning for DFS players as we get some all day tilt to enjoy our Thursday. It looks like the weather is all clear for the Early Slate with some serious wind in a few ballbarks and some lofty Vegas IRT’s as five of the ten teams in action have 4.5 or higher projected run totals.
The one game that looks ideal for picking our pitchers is Detroit and Cleveland, a game with 45 degree temperatures and 19-20 MPH winds blowing in/across the field with the lowest Vegas total on the slate at 7.5.
Matt Boyd and Trevor Bauer were a popular pairing on Wednesday’s three game slate especially with the weather risk in Chicago, and I could make a strong argument for pairing both Shane Bieber and Spencer Turnbull here today.
Shane Bieber ($19.8K) is the highest priced arm on the slate, coming off an impressive first start of the season against Toronto (where everyone has impressive starts) as he racked up 9K’s in 6 innings with 25 fantasy points. Bieber has a strong 25% K rate and 12% swinging strike rate from 2018 with a tiny 4.7% walk rate and will face a Tigers team with the lowest run total on the entire slate as a -119 road favorite.
In his start against Toronto he generated an elite 21% swinging strike rate with a heavy reliance on his slider (35%) and curveball (20%) which is a massive increase over the roughly 40% usage he had on those pitches in 2018. Now, it could be a one game sample size on a day where those breaking pitches were working but its worth noting considering the Tigers projected line-up seriously struggles against those pitch types.
8 of the 9 batters in the Tigers projected line-up have a 30% or higher whiff rate since 2016 on the slider from RHP while 6 of the 9 have a 30% rate against the curveball. If the Biebs has those secondary offerings working again today, we could be looking at a double-digit K performance.
Spencer Turnbull ($14.9K) knows all about double-digit K performances as he is coming off a 10 K outing against the Royals the last time he took the hill and has struck out 15 total batters in his first 11 innings of work in 2019. Turnbull has a 13.3 % swinging strike rate thus far in 2019 and a 26% K rate through 5 major league starts which is right in line with his minor league numbers so it seems to suggest this performance and K upside is consistent with his pedigree.
The Indians projected lineup has a 23% K rate against RHP in 2018 with 6 lefties on tap which could set up perfectly for Turnbull’s K upside has he has a 27% career mark (again only 5 starts) against LHB versus 24.5% against RHB.
I think what you will notice pretty quickly on this slate is you have a clear split of offenses you want hitters from and those that you want to use arms against – the Tigers, Indians, Marlins and Orioles being the likely spots for most – so I have no issue taking two high K arms in arguably the best pitching environment with two of the worst offenses on the slate.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Bats:
Come on Baltimore – do us a solid and put Chris Davis ($3.9K) into the starting lineup today so we can build a nice like Chris Davis/Khris Davis mini game stack! Just like yesterday, if the Orioles “slugger” gets into the lineup against RHP Aaron Brooks, I think you simply take the free square and use him as a one-off – you can then play Bieber and all the high-priced bats and if the dude simply hits a single, you get your moneys worth!
One night after Oakland bats were a must have DFS investment, they get to face off with Dylan Bundy who in 7.1 innings of work has walked 7 batters, given up 2 HR’s, 6 ER and a .389 ISO to RHB. Last season, Bundy gave up a .230+ ISO mark to hitters from both sides of the plate so to say the A’s and their 5.1 IRT are core plays would seem like an understatement.
The crazy thing on FantasyDraft is that outside of Khris Davis ($8.7K) and Matt Chapman ($8.1K) the rest of this stack is all under $8K so even if we do not get the Chris Davis value, you could easily make the case to stack up this high-octane offense with elite point per dollar upside and have more than enough salary for a few other big-ticket items.
Digging into pitch type – Bundy throws his slider nearly 40% of the time against RHB which correlates perfectly with Davis and Chapman once again today. This duo has a .217 and .280 ISO mark against that pitch type with 313+ average distance traveled. They were chalky last night – today, it feels like another day to eat the chalk.
The Mariners have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.2 in a game where 20 MPH winds are expected to be blowing out to LF – yeah because this Seattle team needs help right now hitting HR’s. Jorge Lopez is a low strikeout arm who relies on his sinker and curveball heavily which once again, adds even more fuel to our stack the Mariners fire.
Against the sinker, Jay Bruce ($9K) has a .237 ISO, 46% HC rate and average distance of just under 330 while Daniel Vogelbach ($9.4K) has a 56% HC rate and 320 average distance on the pitch. Flip the curve and Bruce stands out AGAIN – with a .368 ISO 41% HC rate – now I am not in the business of calling HR’s but if there is one player where the pitch type data seems to jump off the page – it is with Mr. Bruce today. Note – Bruce left last night with a injury so keep an eye to see if he is in the lineup.
By the way – just for fun – care to guess Vogelbach’s ISO against RHP in 2019? It is .842 – yes you read that right.
Without any $20K + pitching on this slate and the potential for a Chris Davis value punt one-off, you can build a roster entirely of the best and priciest hitters on Oakland and Seattle and frankly, it is not overly difficult. Sure it may end up being chalky and picking the two teams with the highest IRT is not exactly “pivoting” off the norm but with Dylan Bundy and Jorge Lopez pitching, sometimes we may not need to get cute and simply listen to what Vegas is telling us especially when the underlying data supports it.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note the sample lineup here is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a plug and play lineup….even though I know some of you do – read the fine print people 🙂
SP: Shane Bieber
SP: Spencer Turnbull
IF: Chris Davis
IF: Daniel Vogelbach
OF: Jay Bruce
OF: Domingo Santana
OF: Khris Davis
UTIL: Matt Chapman
UTIL: Marcus Semien
Slate Overview: Nothing super sneaky about this five game slate in my opinion – I think the pitcher pool is limited just because we have elite offenses like the Mariners, A’s, Dodgers all on the slate – we have good hitting environments in St. Louis for the Dodgers/Cardinals with 75 degree temperatures and 20+ MPH winds so while Wacha/Buehler are good pitchers, they are facing scary offenses with the wind at their backs.
Now, can we just get Chris Davis in the line-up and get him a little slump buster please?
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
The Main Slate is going to be a bit tricky as we have rain in Wrigley and 40-50 degree temperatures in Fenway so watching the weather will be critical here heading into the night set of 5 games.
The pitching on this Main Slate leaves a whole lot to be desired and I actually think paying attention to ownership and pivoting here makes the most sense as opposed to prioritizing any specific arms.
Jon Gray ($17.5K) is tonight’s Robbie Ray, the tantalizing K upside volatile arm that I could end up seeing becoming the clear chalk with an ideal match-up in San Francisco against a weak Giants line-up. Gray has the highest K rate and highest swinging strike rate on the slate and already has a double-digit K game this year on the road against the Marlins so the argument can be made for Gray – but Gray as chalk, we may want to play devils advocate here.
Gray made two starts in 2018 in San Francisco and neither time did he make it into the 5th inning, pitching 3.2 and 4 innings, giving up 5 ER in each start so while the K metrics and ballpark are appealing, the performance has not been there for Gray which makes him an intriguing GPP fade.
Nathan Eovaldi ($17.1K) gets a match-up with Toronto and as a -185 home favorite, once again this feels like a spot you can argue but it also feels like an obvious place to go alongside Gray and I am just not sure I want to pay up for two popular arms that I question whether they have the can’t miss upside we need. How often this season has paying up for pitching actually worked?
There are two solid, albeit not spectacular arms in the mid-range that have some solid point per dollar upside here and allow us to stack up the bats on this slate in Jose Quintana and Zack Godley.
Now the weather in Chicago is dicey tonight with thunderstorms expected but assuming Quintana ($15.4K) is able to go, he makes for a seemingly “safe option” on a slate where I think the bats ar the priority.
Quintana’s first start against Milwaukee was a disaster as he gave up 8 ER in 3 innings but this Pirates offense is far from the potent beast that is the Brewers with only a .182 ISO mark against LHP in 2018 albeit with a sub 20% K rate. In two starts last season against Pittsburgh, Quintana went 5 innings each time, giving up 1-2 ER’s with 4 K’s with 13-14 fantasy points. It may sound crazy but on this slate, 13-14 fantasy points from a cheap SP2 may not be the worst idea if your bats come through.
Godley is an interesting SP1 choice here today as he faces a right-handed heavy Padres lineup in Arizona. In 2018, Godley had a 25.4% K rate against RHB which is a 4% boost over LHB and at home Godley saw his K rate spike to near 27% which is a 7% jump over his road marks. Now combine the two – at home versus RHB, Godley had 30.6% K rate in 2018 and this Padres lineup is projected to have 7 of their 8 batters hitting from the right side.
Godley made 5 starts against the Padres in 2018, going for 15+ in 4 of them with his two best outings 24 and 26 fantasy points coming in Arizona where he struck out 7-8 batters in those outings. In fact, Godley struck out at least 7 batters in four of the five starts against the Padres last season and while the addition of Manny Machado makes this a different line-up, the vast majority of this Padres lineup is the same as Godley faced and excelled against in 2018.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:
With hitting a priority for me on this slate, it all starts with the Red Sox who despite the cold weather in Boston have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.4 against RHP Aaron Sanchez. If you are paying down at SP tonight, then I think you do so with the expectation you start your builds with Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez who will cost you around $10K/per player but they are likely worth every penny.
Sanchez relies on his sinker nearly 50% of the time to RHB and this is a pitch type that both Red Sox stars simply obliterate. Since 2016, Betts has a .259 ISO mark, 38% HC rate, 310 average distance and most impressive a 5% whiff rate against the pitch. JD on the other hand has a .262 ISO, 37% HC rate and average distance of 303 traveled. Again, if you are paying down for pitching, then I think it has to be with the Mookie/JD duo in mind as your first bats in.
With the Red Sox duo locked in, the next spot I want to target with bats is Atlanta as the Mets/Braves face off with Steven Matz and Kevin Gausman on the hill. With near 80 degree temperatures, this is arguably the best hitting weather on the slate and with powerful bats on both sides of this game, I think it becomes an ideal game stack offensive scenario.
Matz is an arm that at times can flash elite talent but with this Braves line-up, in this ballpark and with this weather – it seems like a spot where Matz gives up a few long balls and it is a spot I think we have to prioritize.
Ronald Acuna ($9.5K) is pricey but considering Matz gave up a .210 ISO to RHB in 2018 and Acuna had a .293 ISO mark against LHP – well, the price may be worth it. The nice part about the Braves is we could get some right-handed value with Tyler Flowers ($6.6K) behind the plate and if Johan Camargo ($6.7K) gets the start in the OF for Nick Markakis with a lefty on the mound.
Matz is a sinker reliant arm and the Braves have three bats ahead of Acuna in Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson who have .200+ ISO marks against that pitch type so mixing and matching the pricey power bats with the cheaper Flowers/Camargo type is a nice way to get exposure to his Braves lineup.
On the other side of this game is a lefty heavy Mets lineup in one of the best parks for lefty power so running this stack back with the power bats of Michael Conforto and Robinson Cano makes for a great way to attack Gausman. The Braves right-hander relies on his splitter 35% of the time against LHP, a pitch that Cano hits for a .220 ISO while Conforto has an average distance of 330+ so with the warm temperatures here, it could be bombs away for the heart of the Mets order.
MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview – Main Slate:
SP: Zack Godley
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SP: Jose Quintana
IF: Tyler Flowers
IF: Johan Camargo
IF: Josh Donaldson
OF: Ronald Acuna
OF: Mookie Betts
OF: JD Martinez
UTIL: Michael Conforto
UTIL: Robinson Cano
Slate Overview: Without any must have arms on this slate, I think paying down for pitching and loading up on hitters with the Betts/JD duo the top priority, is the way to attack the Main Slate. The big piece to watch here is going to be weather especially in Wrigley so keep an eye on it and be ready to adjust – good luck today all – enjoy all day baseball and the start of The Masters!
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