DraftKings MLB Picks April 12: Carrasco is King of The K

DraftKings MLB Picks April 12: Carrasco: King of the K

We finally have a more normal DraftKings MLB day. There are 13 games today but only the Wrigley one is a matinee. That’s unfortunate since there is going to be a 25 mph wind out to center. They don’t have an all day either! Damn!

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There’s still plenty of offense in this night slate, and some nice pitching options to go with it. I’m going to have several entries tonight!

Rain is likely in Washington, but hopefully it holds off long enough to get the game in. If not, there is a good chance it doesn’t go the full nine. SP’s are a bit of a risk, but no pitchers go nine anymore anyway.

It’s windy against in a few places. The wind is blowing out to right in Toronto if the roof is open. There is a 12 mph breeze blowing in from left in Texas, so that’s something to consider. There is a nice 12 mph breeze out to left in D.C. if that game plays. We also have a 15 mph wind out to left in New York with rain likely if the game goes later than 10pm eastern.

Khrush Davis was at it again with his second straight two homer game. Too bad he has to leave Baltimore! It’s the pitching, not the park. Unfortunately, I didn’t have Davis without Buehler. In the night slate I got the pitching right with Matz and Sanchez, but couldn’t get any offense except for Pete Alonso.

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.

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DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Carlos Carrasco ($11,000): He’s expensive, but the Royals are only hitting .211 against Carrasco in 76 at bats with 24 strikeouts. The bad news is that they have ten runs. Well, most of the damage is done by one player. We’ll address that later. Why is Carrasco worth it? Because he is 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 66 career innings at Kauffman Stadium. He should sign with the Royals!

Chris Paddack ($9,700): Paddack has been brilliant to start his major league career, but I want to caution you about spending this much on him. Sure, Arizona is mostly right handed and doesn’t have a ton of power, especially from the left side. However, the Padres are really limiting Paddack’s innings, so he’ll be lucky to go five. He has pitched just 8.2 innings over his two starts. Paddack has dominated, but his upside is limited whereas his price is not.

Jake Arrieta ($8,800): The Marlins have actually hit Arrieta pretty well, but not at Marlins Park. Arrieta is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA in five career starts there. This offense has little power and even less patience. There are a couple of one off Marlins here if you don’t trust Arrieta, but this looks like a really good place to use him. After all, he is off to a good start this year.

Middle Tier:

Trevor Williams ($8,000): Williams has picked up right where he left off after the All Star break last year. He was one of the best pitchers of the second half, and boasts a 2.25 ERA so far this year with a 0.92 WHIP. Of course, it’s all against the Reds. Still, Williams has held his own in Nationals stadium, and the current Nats are only hitting .212 against him with a solo homer in 33 at bats. I do have an issue with paying this much for a pitcher that doesn’t rack up strikeouts, but it’s hard to argue with results.

Trent Thornton ($7,800): The Rays offense has been better than expected so far, but Thornton has allowed just five hits over two starts to go with a staggering 15 strikeouts! That’s domination, folks. Thornton had good minor league numbers, but not this good. A regression is coming at some point, but I really don’t think it’s against the Rays. The Rays’ calling card is stringing hits together. Thornton just doesn’t allow hits.

Bargain Pitchers:

Sandy Alcantara ($7,300): Alcantara is going to get torched one of these days, and I’ve come to the conclusion that he will probably be in my lineup when he does. He has dominated the current Phillies, holding them to just one hits in 12 tries. Alcantara wont go deep into the game, so that limits his upside. However, he gets outs….and strikeouts. He struck out five of those 12 Phillies.

Brad Keller ($7,100): Keller has been better at home than on the road, and the Indians are just 3-17 with a run against him lifetime. However, Keller has had major issues with walks so far in 2019. This is a team that can exploit this. That wont result in many DraftKings points for Indians hitters, but it will lose a lot of points for Keller. There is risk involved here.

My picks: Carrasco, Thornton; Williams, Thornton

DraftKings MLB: Main stack options

Boston Red Sox vs. David Hess:

The A’s may as well have hit off of a tee the entire series against Baltimore. Now the birds take their pitching machine on the road to a hitter’s park. J.D. Martinez and Benintendi have both homered twice against Hess in just seven total at bats between the two of them. Rafael Devers has the other one. Hess has surrendered five gopher balls to the Red Sox in just 33 at bats. Mookie and Moreland are worth a look to complete this stack. It’s expensive, but could be worth it!

Atlanta Braves vs. Zack Wheeler:

Four of the top 12 exit velocities of the night are by Braves against Wheeler. Josh Donaldson (101.6 mph, 7 degree launch), Dansby Swanson (89.2 mph, 4.4 degree launch), Tyler Flowers (89.2 mph, 14.5 degree launch), and Freddie Freeman (88.2 mph, 16.5 degree launch) are all good bets here. It’s no surprise that Freeman is a staggering 10-19 with two homers and ten RBI off of Wheeler so far. Flowers and Matt Joyce have the other homers. Don’t forget about a cheap Nick Markakis!

Texas Rangers vs. Mike Fiers:

Fiers can’t keep this up forever. The Rangers are hitting .256 against him. That’s nothing special, but they do have seven homers and 19 runs in 129 at bats with only 34 strikeouts. Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, and Elvis Andrus have all smacked two homers against Fiers. Delino Deshields Jr. has the other. I certainly can’t argue with Nomar Mazara or Choo here either.

Oakland Athletics vs. Drew Smyly:

A soft tossing lefty against the A’s? Don’t mind if I do! Can we really play Khris Davis after back to back two homer games? Against Smyly, I find it hard not to. I see a fade too because ownership is going to be massive. I’ll take a run at this with Semien, Chad Pinder, Mark Canha, Matt Chapman and all of the Jurickson Profar revenge in Arlington.

San Diego Padres vs. Luke Weaver:

Okay, so your five man stack probably has a decent chance of netting you ten points, but I’m a sucker for the power in this lineup. Besides, these guys are in first with the season 1/12th over! Respect! The current Padres have already battered Weaver for ten hits in 25 tries. Machado has the only homer, but Manuel Margot‘s exit velocity (89.1) hints at good things. Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, and Wil Myers all look good to me. So does Eric Hosmer, who is 3-6 but has no counting stats.

Seattle Mariners vs. Wade Miley:

The Mariners are hitting .288 in 73 at bats with five homers and 15 runs with 21 strikeouts against their former teammate. Safeco isn’t really a hitter’s park, but this offense is on fire right now. Tell me you don’t want Mitch Haniger or Tim Beckham (who has homered against Miley) here. Tell me you don’t want Edwin and his 7-16(.438) clip with three homers and six RBI, not to mention his 93 mph exit velocity with 21 degree launch angle. Edwin’s getting another here. Jump on the Seattle train. There’s room.

DraftKings MLB daily notes:

Lucas Giolito hasn’t had major issues with righties, but he has given up his share of homers to right handed hitters. Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres are good one offs to try and exploit this.

On the other side, I can give you about a dozen reasons why using J.A. Happ is a bad idea. Reason number one is he has given up 160 of 192 homers to right handed hitters and the wind is blowing out to left. The White Sox are loaded with right handed power. Tim Anderson is the only one that has homered off of Happ so far, but Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, and Welington Castillo have my attention tonight.

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Josh Bell homered in his only career game against Patrick Corbin. Melky Cabrera is only 2-7 against Corbin, but both hits are home runs. It’s no surprise that his exit velocity is 96.3 against Corbin with a 13.5 degree launch angle. Another line drive home run could be forthcoming.

It should come as no surprise that Bryce Harper has the only hit against Sandy Alcantara. He has also walked three times. If you use Phiilies against Alcantara, Harper is a must.

I like the Rays pitchers, but we don’t know who’s pitching after Ryne Stanek. If we knew Stanek was going three innings, I may use him too. If Yonny Chirinos gets the innings, Rowdy Tellez is worth a look. If it’s Yarbrough, I’m probably avoiding.

I expect many to be on Eduardo Rodriguez here, but the Orioles have actually hit him well. That shouldn’t be a shock with all of the right handed power. In fact, if you take Chris Davis‘ 5-27 with 14 strikeouts out of the equation, the Orioles are 16-50 with three homers and nine runs. Joey Rickard, Jesus Sucre, and Trey Mancini have the homers. All come cheap but Mancini. Renato Nunez could be worth a look too.

Curtis Granderson has been a thorn for Jake Arrieta dating back to their days in the A.L. East. Grandy is 10-32(.312) with three homers and 10 RBI against Arrieta. Starlin Castro is 4-10 with three doubles and two RBI. I wouldn’t reach beyond them though.

Do you trust Kyle Wright? Me either. Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso are all on my radar tonight. You could probably talk me into a stack if you really tried. This is going to be a tough one for pitchers.

There’s no way I’m using Corbin Burnes against the Dodgers, especially for his price. However, that doesn’t mean we should stack against him either. Burnes dominated the Dodgers last year in relief. I can see throwing a power lefty or two like Bellinger and Muncy at him, but I wouldn’t go too crazy.

I don’t really want to stack Brewers against Urias, especially with all of the lefties in that lineup. Urias wont stick around long, but that bullpen is pretty good too. If you want to use a Brewer or two, it should probably be limited to Ryan Braun and Grandal revenge.

Alex Gordon has three homers and five runs against Carlos Carrasco, but he is just 5-35(143) against him lifetime. If you use a Royal, it should be Whit Merrifield, who is 7-17 with a homer and four RBI against Carrasco.

Same story as last night. Chad Bettis is a freaking dumpster fire, especially against the Giants, but I just can’t bring myself to stack this lineup. Besides, Bettis has better career marks at AT&T Park that Jon Gray did. Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford are cheap guys to fill your lineup, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to build with them.

The Rockies’ exit velocity is very good against Drew Pomeranz, but they have little to show for it. Besides, they are mostly toothless away from Coors. Chris Iannetta has the only Rockies homer against Pomeranz, but that’s all the exposure I want.

Light tower power isn’t really the way to attack Brad Keller. I want the pesky lefties here. Brad Miller and Leonys Martin. The best part is they are both really cheap.

I usually don’t have use for soft tossing lefties against a loaded team like the Astros, but Wade LeBlanc just keeps getting outs. Jake Marisnick is 3-7 with a homer and is reasonably priced though. Jose Altuve is 4-8 against LeBlanc lifetime. I wouldn’t go crazy here though.

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