English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Saturday 4/13/19

Hopefully some other readers had some success off my UEFA Champions League breakdown from earlier this week, because it was littered with plays that really paid off.  Now we put our focus back on England where we have a 5-game slate Saturday.  Let’s hope my picks stay hot.

Saturday’s slate sees Manchester United as the largest favorite in the late game at home against West Ham United.  After losing 1-0 to Barcelona during the week, United will need to refocus as they currently sit three points out of the last UCL qualifying spot.  As the only big club on the slate, Manchester United players will garner much of the ownership but for good reason as Vegas is predicting 3.0 goals in this matchup.

Everton is actually the next biggest favorite on the slate, but this is most likely due to their matchup against 19th place Fulham team that has already been relegated back to the Championship.  Fulham have given up far more goals than anyone else in the league, and Everton attackers will be useful in GPPs.  The goal total is 2.5.

Two more fixtures (Bournemouth @ Brighton, Cardiff @ Burnley) feature over/unders of 2.5 and a spread of 0.5.  Cardiff are desperate fighting against relegation, so they might be able to squeak out a result at Burnley.  Brighton sit firmly 5 points above the relegation zone and will be eager to pick up all three points at home against a Bournemouth side that is locked into a mid-table finish.

If you’re a Vegas truther, you will want to stay away from the Wolverhampton @ Southampton game given its 2.0 goal total.  You might be able to find a viable one off or two from this game, but it’s something to avoid otherwise.

The injury news on this slate is at an all time low, which is nice to see after the NBA this week.  Pascall Gross is really the only name to watch.  He was playing really well before his injury, but he hasn’t played since the end of February.  Anthony Knockaert has been really solid fantasy-wise in his absence.

Now that we have all that squared away, let’s move on to why you’re all here…the plays!

English Premier League DFS Target Forwards

Marcus Rashford (West Ham @ Manchester United, $12,500) – Some days I feel like I could write up 10+ forwards who I think would score, and some days there are no forwards in smash spots.  This Saturday is one of the latter.  While looking at all the forwards this week, I kept coming back to Rashford.  He’s playing the best out of all the forwards on the slate and he has a decent matchup with West Ham who are giving up 1.56 goals per game on the road.  I expect United to take care of business on Saturday at home and Rashford is likely to be part of the reason why.  The only thing I do not like with him is his price tag.  Paying $12,000-$13,000 for him was warranted when he was on that incredible run two months ago, but he has since cooled off and his price has not dropped.  However, with the lack of stars on this slate, if you’re going for a top forward it should be him.  Romelu Lukaku ($12,500) is a tough sell to me especially at the same price as Rashford.  If you want to avoid the Rashford chalk while still getting some United exposure, you can use Lukaku.

Ashley Barnes (Cardiff @ Burnley, $11,000) – I really only like Barnes for his matchup, but isn’t that one of the main things to look at?  Cardiff have already been relegated and they’ll be playing away from home on Saturday where they’re giving up 1.87 goals per game.  Ashley Barnes is Burnley’s leading goal scorer this year, and he has the best odds as an anytime goal scorer in this game.  I would not normally like paying this much for Barnes, but on a smaller slate with limited top forwards, he’s in consideration.

Value Forwards

Dwight McNeil (Cardiff @ Burnley, $8,500) – Piggybacking off of my last play, McNeil is my favorite value forward on this slate.  McNeil only really entered Burnley’s regular rotation in January, and he has three goals and four assists since then, while also averaging 1.6 shots per game.  McNeil has scored two goals in his last three games, so he’s coming into this game in good form.  Chris Wood ($9,000) is another solid bet to score in this game for Burnley, but McNeil has a safer floor.  Either way, you’re going to want some exposure to these three Burnley attackers at home in this matchup.

Aleksandar Mitrovic (Everton @ Fulham, $8,500) – Over the last few months, Mitrovic has slowly seen his price drop $3,000 on FanDuel.  Partly this is due to how Fulham’s season went, and the other part is some tough matchups.  This, however, is not that difficult of a matchup for him.  We all know by now that he’s a far superior scorer at home.  Everton isn’t terrible defensively, but they also aren’t that good (they give up 1.3 goals per game on the road).  Mitrovic has multiple two-goal games this year and getting a guy like that for less than $9k is something to take advantage of in a fair matchup.

English Premier League DFS Target Midfielders

Gylfi Sigurdsson (Everton @ Fulham, $9,000) – This is a great matchup for an attacking midfielder with creative abilities like Sigurdsson.  Fulham hasn’t been able to contain any this season and that won’t change on Saturday.  Sigurdsson is playing really well right now with 32.8 FDP over his last three games.  He’s creating four chances per game to go along with two shots on goal in that stretch.  I expect his bright play to continue, and he will be one of the first midfielders into my lineup.  Richarlison ($9,500) is a better bet to score in this game, but his floor isn’t as good, so I would rather take the savings and a safer floor with Sigurdsson.

James Ward-Prowse (Wolverhampton @ Southampton, $8,500) – Inflated price tags seem to be a common theme on this slate.  Normally paying this for Ward-Prowse isn’t something I would do, but he provides one of the safer floors from a high-end midfielder on this slate.  If you also take into account the fact that Southampton need a good result, Ward-Prowse becomes more appealing as GPP option in the midfield on Saturday.  Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg ($7,000) is a really solid value midfielder for Southampton.

Value Midfielders

Manuel Lanzini (West Ham @ Manchester United, $5,500) – I’m going to keep coming back to Lanzini if he’s going to stay this cheap.  After missing nine months with an ACL injury, Lanzini finally posted a double digit fantasy performance against Chelsea last week.  This isn’t a great matchup with United on the road, but you’re getting a good player for cheap.  His salary will help you prioritize studs on this slate making him viable in all formats.

English Premier League DFS Target Defenders

Lucas Digne (Everton @ Fulham, $7,000) – A few months ago Digne got white hot fantasy-wise but he cooled off in January.  Digne is back on a hot stretch with 24.7 FDP average in his last five games.  This is a great matchup for an attacking defender like Digne, and I am willing to pay for him with the limited number of stud midfielders.  Seamus Coleman ($4,500) is worth a look if you need value on defense.

Maya Yoshida (Wolverhampton @ Southampton, $5,500) – There are some decent players ahead of Yoshida price-wise, but I feel more comfortable getting 3x value from someone cheaper.  He went over 3x value in three of his last five games, and the two he missed were still respectable 14.3 FDP games.  I feel good about paying for him in all formats.  Fellow Southampton defender Jannik Vestergaard ($5,000) is still so cheap on FanDuel as he has been all year.  There isn’t any reason to expect 3x or even 4x value from him on Saturday.

Value Defenders

Fabian Balbuena (West Ham @ Manchester United, $4,500) – Balbuena’s price dropped significantly after missing a handful of games, but FanDuel must have missed his most recent 19.5 FDP game because he’s still super cheap.  At his current lower price, Balbuena would have gone for 3x value in 12/18 of his games this season.  He also has gone over 20 FDP in one third of his games this year.  Manchester United isn’t an ideal matchup, but there’s no reason to avoid him at this price.

I mentioned two other value defenders (Vestergaard and Coleman) above, and there isn’t anyone else I like that much, so I’m just writing up one value defender.

English Premier League DFS Goalkeepers

David de Gea (West Ham @ Manchester United, $6,000) – As noted, Manchester United really needs to win this game at home to stay in contention for a UCL spot next season.  If they play to their potential, I don’t see WHU scoring on the road where they average less than one goal per game.  David de Gea should also get some save points in this game, but I feel good about a win and clean sheet bonus as well.

Tom Heaton (Cardiff @ Burnley, $5,000) – Heaton is more of a high risk GPP play that could boom with low ownership.  Burnley’s defense has not been great, but Cardiff have had massive struggles scoring on the road (only 9 goals in 15 games).  If that trend continues, Heaton should get both bonuses on Saturday and he’ll save you some money off DDG.

That just about does it for this week’s English Premier League DFS Breakdown.  Catch me on Twitter (@vdray5) if you have any questions or want to see any last minute advice I tweet.