MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday, April 12 – Lucas with the Lid Off!

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Another split slate is in the books from Thursday where we saw Khris Davis homer again (2x), Chris Davis draw a walk (woohoo) and on both slates we saw the early season trend continue of low-priced pitchers being the way to go. The Main Slate seemed far uglier for pitching with a chalky Jon Gray as everyone’s SP1 (nearly 70% owned in GPP’s on FantasyDraft), but it was Jose Quintana and Jeff Samardzija who dominated the night, both going for 30+ fantasy points as the top two raw point plays on the night. For an ugly Main Slate of pitching, we actually had five arms go for 20+ fantasy points – so much for not having options!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Friday Pitching Breakdown:

We finally have a normal Main Slate with 12 games all together for what seems like the first time all week and outside of some serious rain concern in DC for the Nationals and Pirates, the weather looks clear for the most part here on this Friday MLB DFS slate.

At first glance when you open this slate, what will likely jump out are the big time game and team totals with some of the bigger name arms stepping in as massive Vegas favorites. The Red Sox, Yankees, A’s and Rangers all have 5+ IRT which puts LHP Eduardo Rodriguez and LHP J.A. Happ as -200+ home favorites and solid cash game targets. Carlos Carrasco ($21.2K) is the only arm over $20K on FantasyDraft as he heads to Kansas City while Padres rookie right-hander Chris Paddack ($18.4K) gets his third start of the young season in Arizona.

There are solid name arms here at the top, big time Vegas favorites and all with some strong K upside but with the early season trends pushing us more and more towards paying down at pitcher, rather than focus on these plays, it may make sense to live in the mid-range today with our pitchers so we can load up on a slate full of bats!

Trent Thornton ($14.9K) is a pitcher we wrote up his last start in Picks and Pivots and he delivered with 5.2 IP, 7 K’s and 19.75 fantasy points, the second straight game he has had at least 7 K’s to start 2019. Thornton has been able to rack up a 12.6% swinging strike rate in his first two starts of 2019 and he has done it with two different approaches. In his first start against Detroit he relied on his nasty curve ball nearly a third of the time but against the Indians he relied much more on his change-up and slider, while continuing to rack up swings and misses.

Now expecting a 40% K rate to sustain itself may not be the likely outcome considering Thornton was only at 24% in AAA, but this match-up with Tampa Bay today gave him another chance to rack up K’s against a projected lineup with a 23.2% K rate against RHP since the start of 2018. If Thornton has that curve ball working again today, this line-up sets up for some swing and misses as 7 of the 9 projected batters have 30% of higher whiff rates against that pitch type.

With this being such a large slate, we should see ownership spread out nicely and without any real must have arms, this is setting up as a nice GPP slate – which could lend itself to going a bit off the board at pitcher which leads me to a choice that you will likely think is a tab bit crazy but hear me out – Lucas Giolito ($11.3K) against the Yankees in the Bronx.

Listen, I know it is “The Yankees” and Vegas has them with a 5.5 IRT which is second to only the Red Sox tonight, but this Yankee lineup right now is one I think we can pick on with arms and the recent performances seem to support that. While the Astros trio of McHugh, Cole and Verlander were all solid, comparing Giolito to any of these three is a bit of stretch but look back at the previous series with the Tigers – Matt Boyd (33 FPTS), Jordan Zimmermann (20.8) and Tyson Ross (10.5) all had different levels of success against this Yankees lineup that is without multiple core pieces.

Look at this projected line-up – especially with Clint Frazier and Tyler Wade at the bottom, it has a 25% K rate against RHP since the start of 2018. We typically think of the Yankees offense as this bomb squad at home, but so far in 2019 they have scored only 3.3 RPG at home which ranks only above the Padres, Rays, Blue Jays and Giants.

So, there is potential K upside in the Yankee lineup and it is one that is scuffling to score runs at home but the real issue is can you trust Giolito? The talent has always been there for Giolito but the control issues are what will derail him – we saw him shine in his first start with 8 K’s and only 1 BB versus the Royals but he came crashing back to Earth with 4 BB’s to only 4 K’s against the Mariners his next start.

One thing I want to watch here today with Giolito is the umpire data once we have it to see what kind of umpire he gets as that will likely determine my comfort level with using Giolito in GPP’s. He is the definition of boom/bust and we saw that in 2018 – in 32 starts he had 6 in which he went for 20+ fantasy points but conversely he had 5 starts in which he had negative points so that is the crazy range of outcomes you are dealing with here.

Giolito has this DFS reputation as a gas can so my guess is the Yankee stack is popular tonight which leads to the logical conclusion that Lucas is ignored as an SP2. Understanding the risk, this could be an amazing leverage spot for a pitcher who has shown he has 20+ fantasy point upside both in 2018 but also so far in 2019. Go big or go home right?

MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:

If you opt to go with a Thornton/Giolito duo as your pitchers, and just typing that makes me realize I will likely be hitting the “Add Funds” button tomorrow, at least you have over $9.2K of salary remaining to build your lineups which means you can pick and choose from the best bats on the slate.

The Boston Red Sox have a 6+ IRT at home against arguably the worst arm on the slate in the Orioles David Hess – this is going to be a chalky stack but as Joe Metz breaks down in his stacks article today, they rightfully take their place as a cash game core and a scary GPP fade. A 1-4 stack of Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland and J.D. Martinez is not going to be cheap but if you can work your builds around cheap pitchers today then I think 3 to 4 of these guys becomes the optimal strategy at the core of your lineup.

Another day, another Dodgers stack is front and center for me as the Dodgers take on RHP Corbin Burnes who has given up just a few runs and homers this season – if we want to be precise, and why not, he has given up 6 HR’s and 11 ER in 10 innings with a 60% HC rate to opposing batters. Now I am sure Burnes is a lovely fella and enjoys community service, puppies and helping old ladies cross the street, but for a pitcher struggling with power and HC, this Dodgers line-up is the last team he wants to see.

The Dodgers have three bats with .260+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of 2018 with Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy all sporting 40% plus HC rates and extreme fly ball tendencies – if you want a pivot off the Red Sox or a secondary stack alongside Boston, this Dodgers team looks primed to continue to early season struggles which will have the Brewers fans booing and the Dodgers fans muttering “I was saying Boo-urns.” Killer Simpsons reference Brian – well done.

Let’s see, this is Picks and Pivots and I have already written up the Dodgers so next stop in my homer Rolodex – the New York Mets. Much like Burnes, the Braves starter Kyle Wright has struggled in his limited times in the majors, pitching 16 innings since last season with a 13:12 K:BB ratio, while giving up 5 HR and 8 ER in those outings.

In 26 plate appearance against LHB, Wright has given up a .318 ISO and 43% HC rate and now has to navigate through a lefty heavy Mets line-up including Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Robinson Cano. 

Sitting in the middle of that lefty stack is Pete Alonso who has 6 HR’s and 17 RBI’s to start his Major League Career, not only one of the best starts in Major League history but among the league leaders with some of the biggest names in the sport. In 30 PA’s against RHP this season, Alonso has an absurd .448 ISO and 53% HC rate – it may seem like a lot to pay $9.2K for him but I think that price tag on a slate this size will keep his ownership sub 15% and even could be in the single digits which gives you a nice contrarian power play as a one-off or as part of a lefty Mets stack.

MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build. 

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SP: Tyler Thornton

SP: Lucas Giolito

IF: Cody Bellinger

IF: Max Muncy

IF: Pete Alonso

OF: Mookie Betts

OF: J.D. Martinez

OF: Andrew Benintendi

UTIL: Michael Conforto

UTIL: Robinson Cano

Slate Overview: If you step back and look at this slate, I am not sure there is any arm I simply have to have and frankly, I think Thornton is a guy that I would lock in for both cash games and GPP’s. From a hitting perspective, stacking the Red Sox is certainly not going to shock anyone and the Dodgers and Mets give you high upside mini stacks against two pitchers that are struggling early in their careers.

Nothing here feels risky. Nothing except Lucas Giolito – and as scary as it sounds, the success of this build would depend completely on him because you can’t get all the bats you want without his salary savings.

I will absolutely keep an eye out for umpire data as the day goes on and do my best to pass on thoughts on Twitter (@2LockSports) so if you want to take the Giolito ride with me tonight, or mock me when he walks 8 guys and is out by the second inning, stop by and let me know what you think.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis each and everyday across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.