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MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Friday, 4/12

ByDan Palyo|
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 31: Patrick Corbin #46 of the Washington Nationals pitches against the New York Mets during the second inning at Nationals Park on March 31, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 31: Patrick Corbin #46 of the Washington Nationals pitches against the New York Mets during the second inning at Nationals Park on March 31, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
GOODYEAR, AZ – FEBRUARY 21: Carlos Carrasco of the Cleveland Indians poses for a portrait at the Cleveland Indians Player Development Complex on February 21, 2019 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images)
GOODYEAR, AZ – FEBRUARY 21: Carlos Carrasco of the Cleveland Indians poses for a portrait at the Cleveland Indians Player Development Complex on February 21, 2019 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: Friday, April 12

Welcome back to the Friday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites. Tonight we have a huge 12-game slate!

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here, usually accompanied by Vegas odds. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article.  Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second, Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis.

Lucas Giolito vs. J.A. Happ (-230)

Trevor Williams vs. Patrick Corbin (-170)

Ryne Stanek (-110) vs. Trent Thornton

David Hess vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (-260)

Jake Arrieta (-155) vs. Sandy Alcantara

Zach Wheeler vs. Kyle Wright (-115)

Mike Fiers (-110) vs. Drew Smyly

Carlos Carrasco (-135) vs. Brad Keller

Chris Paddack (-112) vs. Luke Weaver

Wade Miley (-130) vs. Wade LeBlanc

Corbin Burnes  vs. Julio Urias (-140)

Chad Bettis vs. Drew Pomeranz (-120)

WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 22: Patrick Corbin #46 of the Washington Nationals poses for a portrait on Photo Day at FITTEAM Ballpark of The Palm Beaches during on February 22, 2019 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 22: Patrick Corbin #46 of the Washington Nationals poses for a portrait on Photo Day at FITTEAM Ballpark of The Palm Beaches during on February 22, 2019 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces

Patrick Corbin (10k FD, 10.1k DK) vs. Pittsburgh

Corbin is my favorite pitcher on the slate tonight. He finally gets to face a team other than the Mets, and it happens to be my beloved Pittsburgh Pirates, who I watched strike out 11 times against lefty Jose Quintana last night (much to my chagrin). Corbin dominated my Buccos last year, whiffing 17 over 12 innings in two starts against them and I think his slider has the potential to give the free-swinging Pirate hitters fits like Quintana’s curveball did last night.

It’s an easy choice between Corbin and Carrasco for me. Corbin’s numbers are better across the board in nearly every category and he’s facing a national league team at home, while Carrasco is facing a pesky Royals team on the road. He’s a solid favorite with the best K-rate and track record of any pitcher on the slate. He’s my cash game lock on FD and my favorite option for SP1 on DraftKings tonight.

DraftKings MLB
BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 05: J.A. Happ #34 of the New York Yankees reacts as J.D. Martinez #28 of the Boston Red Sox runs the bases after hitting a three run home run in the first inning of Game One of the American League Division Series at Fenway Park on October 5, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (10.5k FD, 11k DK) @ Kansas City

While I said I’d rather take the discount for Corbin in cash games, Carrasco makes for a compelling GPP play. He’s only one of a few aces we have going tonight, and despite the tough matchup with the Royals, he’s got the type of stuff that can dominate any lineup.

His results this season have been total opposites. He struggled in his first start against the Twins (a team that seemingly has his number) and then bounced back to strike out 12 Blue Jays in only 5 innings in his last start. Tonight’s outcome is likely somewhere between those two outliers and KC doesn’t strike out nearly as often as Toronto, but Carrasco pitched well against them last season in two starts and certainly has a chance at being the top raw points scorer tonight.

J.A. Happ (9.4 FD, 9.2k) vs. Chicago White Sox

Man, I wish we were getting a better discount on Happ, but the matchup is definitely being factored into the price tonight as he faces the strikeout-prone Chicago White Sox.  Happ has not made it through the fifth inning yet this season and was touched up by a mediocre Baltimore squad in both of those outings.

But that’s exactly why he’s a good GPP play tonight. I’m sure many will stay off him based on those boxscores and I’m not ready to pronounce J.A. Happ as washed up just yet, he’s only pitched 8 innings this season for Pete’s sake. He’s a massive favorite at home and has significant strikeout upside tonight in this matchup. He’s clearly not safe in cash, but I want some GPP shares especially if I think he will be low owned.

CLEVELAND, OHIO – APRIL 05: Starting pitcher Trent Thornton #57 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on April 05, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OHIO – APRIL 05: Starting pitcher Trent Thornton #57 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on April 05, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms/SP2s

Brad Keller (7.8k FD, 7.1k DK) vs. Cleveland

Keller is the ace of the Royals staff despite only being in his second season. He’s been solid for KC so far this season, with three quality starts in his first three outings. The walks in the last two starts have hurt him a bit, but his walk rate usually isn’t an issue. He’s got an excellent ground ball rate of 54% and is facing this Indians team that is striking out at a 27% clip this season. I like the upside he offers for this price, especially as an SP2 on DK.

Trent Thornton (7.6k FD, 7.8k DK) vs. Tampa Bay

Here’s my favorite cheap pitcher today! Thornton has looked downright impressive in his first two starts for the Jays, striking out 15 hitters in only 10 and 2/3 innings. The matchup with Tampa will be challenging as their offense is improved this year, but they are still striking out at a solid clip (26%) this season and Thornton has been tough on righties and lefties so far in his young career. This is a kid who had a solid minor league career for the Astros before coming to Toronto and I don’t see why we would expect regression, other than a few fewer strikeouts going forward as he faces tougher opponents and teams get a scouting report on him. He’s legit.

ARLINGTON, TX – APRIL 1: Drew Smyly #33 of the Texas Rangers throws against the Houston Astros during the first inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington on April 1, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX – APRIL 1: Drew Smyly #33 of the Texas Rangers throws against the Houston Astros during the first inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington on April 1, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: Gas Can of the Night

Drew Smyly vs. Oakland

Smyly is trying to make his comeback after being a solid pitching prospect earlier in his career with Tampa Bay, but this season he has been already been knocked around and has failed to make it out of the fourth inning yet.

His numbers are abysmal. His walk rate is way too high, hard contact rate, fly ball rates…everything. His xFIP is sitting up near 7 for crying out loud. Everything thus far is pointing to the fact that he is just a really bad pitcher.

Now, having said all that, he has to pitch in Arlington tonight (great hitters’ park) against an Oakland team that is absolutely crushing the ball and full of right-handed power hitters. Oakland is looking like early chalk, but I wouldn’t fade it tonight (ask me how my Khris Davis fade went yesterday).

Daily Fantasy Baseball
FanDuel MLB: TORONTO, ON – MARCH 31: Trent Thornton #57 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch in the first inning during MLB game action against the Detroit Tigers at Rogers Centre on March 31, 2019 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

Here’s where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

More from FanSided

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is Corbin-Thornton, while I’m all in on Corbin over Carrasco as my cash game pitcher on FanDuel.

Cash Rankings

  1. Patrick Corbin
  2. Carlos Carrasco
  3. Trent Thornton (SP2)
  4. Brad Keller (SP2)

GPP Rankings

  1. Patrick Corbin
  2. J.A. Happ
  3. Carlos Carrasco
  4. Trent Thornton

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!