Fansided

MLB DFS Standouts: April 12th Picks

By Matt McGarvey

MLB DFS Standouts: MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 02: JT Riddle #10 of the Miami Marlins hits an RBI ground out in the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Marlins Park on April 02, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MLB DFS Standouts: MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 02: JT Riddle #10 of the Miami Marlins hits an RBI ground out in the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Marlins Park on April 02, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS Standouts
MLB DFS Standouts: WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 25: JT Riddle #10 of the Miami Marlins bats against the Washington Nationals in the third inning at Nationals Park on September 25, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Standouts: April 12th

Tonight’s MLB DFS Standouts slate features twelve games with, Boston (6.2), New York (5.7), Oakland (5.5), and Texas (5.1) , holding the best projected team totals. Without many high-priced pitchers in play, finding the best match-ups will play more of a factor than finding value will.

We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, line movement, and stolen base upside.

MLB DFS Standouts Picks: Batted Ball Stats

J.T. Riddle – DK $3400, FD $2000

Although he hasn’t done much of anything to start the season, J.T. Riddle is actually hitting the ball much better than his fantasy production would indicate. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 40 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 3%, and his exit velocity is up 5 MPH, over his yearly average.

This is a prime “buy low” spot, especially on FanDuel where he is priced at the minimum, $2000. If he’s hitting sixth or better, he’s worth a look.

Austin Hedges – DK $ 3600, FD $2200

Austin Hedges is another cheap option, who should see positive regression in the near future. Hedges in only $2200 on FanDuel, and rightfully so. However, his batted ball stats are much better than his recent production. In the last 15 days, his distance is up 15 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 2%, and his exit velocity is up 3 MPH, over his yearly average.

Batter Splits

Mitch Moreland – DK $4500, FD $4000

While he may be a bit chalky, given the Red Sox’s team total, Mitch Moreland is in a terrific spot tonight against the righty, David Hess.

Moreland is much more effective against right handed pitching, with a .341 wOBA split (.050 better than when facing a lefty) and a .233 ISO split (.092 better than when facing a lefty). If Moreland is batting in the three hole tonight, he should be considered.

Line Movement

Philadelphia will hit the road tonight, as they take on the Miami Marlins, in a game in which Philadelphia is a -155 favorite. While the line has moved slightly towards the Marlins, the total movement may indicate that both teams could find offensive success. The game total, briefly, opened at 7.5, but has since risen a full run, to 8.5 runs.

The Phillies’ offense is strong enough to go off any given night, but the interesting match-up, in regards to the movement of the total, is Arrieta vs. the Miami offense. While Arrietta’s ERA isn’t alarmingly high this season, his batted ball stats would indicate that he’s been on the “lucky” side of variance.

In the last 15 days, his opposing batted ball distance is up 29 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 4%, and his exit velocity is up 2%. It’s a long shot, but in deeper tournaments, a Miami stack may offer value.

Stolen Base Upside

Kansas City Base Runners

Kansas City base runners will have an attractive matchup tonight, as they face the righty, Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco allowed 15 stolen bases over the course of 192 innings last year. This will bode well for players like Raul Mondesi and Whit Merrifield. Mondesi has stolen three bases this year, tied for 7th most and Merrifield has stolen four, tied for 4th most.