MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday, April 13 – Early Slate Stacking
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Friday’s MLB DFS slate was a messy one with weather risk that left the top arm of the night in Patrick Corbin virtually un-owned (5% in GPP’s) while Trent Thornton, one of the highest owned arms was knocked around by the Rays on his way to negative points. Ultimately it was all about offense and letting your bats carry you – personally even with Thornton and Lucas Giolito as my pitching duo, I was able to push past the cash line in GPP’s as a result of big offensive nights from the Dodgers, Red Sox and Mets hitters. Any time you cash with a negative from a SP, you simply thank the DFS Gods and move on to the next slate!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Breakdown:
With a split slate on tap today in MLB DFS (and some early Saturday family commitments) – I am going to make this one quick so you all can get to building line-ups and I can keep my wife from yelling at me, so really we all win.
Blake Snell ($20.6K) is the clear spend up as your SP1 on this early five game slate with a slate high 32.2% K rate and 15% swinging strike rate as he matches up with a K heavy Toronto line-up as a large -165 road favorite. Snell has struck out 11 and 13 batters in his last two starts with a 22% K rate in each outing and this match-up with Toronto is one he has dominated in the past.
In 2018, Snell faced Toronto three times, going for 25, 27 and 38 fantasy points with 27 K’s in 16.2 IP. Keep it simple – Snell is the premier arm on this slate and with some under-priced hitters, I actually think you can afford him with ease on FantasyDraft.
The pitchers in the Twins/Tigers game make for great SP2 choices as we have cold temperatures, 36 degrees at first pitch, and the lowest IRT of any game on the slate. Tyson Ross ($13.1K) has been impressive to start 2019, averaging 20 FPPG, with 12 K’s in 12 innings of work against the Royals and Yankees while giving up only 3 ER’s.
Ross has always been an elite ground ball arm and that has carried into his first two starts this season with a 58% GB rate while also inducing an 11% swinging strike rate. The projected Twins line-up has a 23% K rate against RHP since the start of 2018 with a GB rate over 41%. Ross relies heavily on his slider, throwing it nearly 40% of the time and this Twins team has 7 batters in the projected lineup with a 30% or higher whiff rate and 6 batters with a 40% or higher GB rate which seems to profile well for Ross in the worst hitting environment on the Early Slate.
Stacking the Red Sox and their 6.4 IRT on a small slate is certainly not going to be a sneaky strategy at home in Fenway with 60 degree temperatures and the wind blowing out at 9 MPH versus Andrew Cashner, and it may seem like getting them AND Blake Snell is impossible but the pricing on FantasyDraft is soft enough where it is actually quite possible and feels like a must early slate strategy. Mookie Betts and JD Martinez are under $10K, Mitch Moreland ($8.7K), Andrew Benintendi ($8.6K) and Xander Boegarts ($8.1K) all feel way too cheap considering the match-up against Cashner as the top stack by a long shot on this six game slate.
Cashner has given up a .213 ISO to LHB since the start of 2018, with a 40% plus HC rate and 34 % HC rate with a 1.73 HR/9 rate in 2018 so loading up on the lefties like Moreland/Benintendi and pairing them with arguably the bets bats on the slate in Betts/JD gives you massive upside that can carry you across the cash line regardless of what the rest of your build does.
So play the best offense and the top arm in Snell? How exactly are we affording that? Well, once again – we can lock in the DFS free square in Chris Davis ($4.2K) against Rick Porcello in Fenway. Davis continues to make hard contact and gets the same warm weather/wind boost that the Red Sox hitters get – why get cute, take the fee square and see what it opens up in your builds.
With the wind blowing out in Wrigley and RHP Chris Stratton on the hill, getting some Cubs exposure here alongside the Red Sox feels like a high upside offensive strategy. Stratton has given up a .200 ISO to LHB since the start of 2018 and has to tangle with guys like Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber who have .215 and .255 ISO marks against RHP since the start of 2018.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – the sample lineup here is meant to be illustrative and should not be used a a plug and play lineup.
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SP: Blake Snell
SP: Tyson Ross
IF: Chris Davis
IF: Mitch Moreland
IF: Xander Boegarts
OF: Mookie Betts
OF: JD Martinez
OF: Andrew Benintendi
UTIL: Anthony Rizzo
UTIL: Kyle Schwarber
Slate Overview: The fact that you can lock in the best arm and the best stack in Blake Snell and the Red Sox makes this feel like the optimal lineup build regardless of contest type. Really it all hinges on the salary savings of Chris Davis but with a right-hander on the mound who he has had career success against, I see no reason to think he will be sidelined and it allows you to really do whatever you want in your builds.
Enjoy the day of MLB and the start of the NBA Playoffs – we will see you back here tomorrow!
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