MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday, 4/15

MLB DFS Pitching: Monday, April 15

Welcome back to the Monday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

My goal here is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

Each day I’ll start off listing the pitching matchups for slate here, usually accompanied by Vegas odds. I always glance at these matchups to see who the favorites are and who is pitching at home vs. on the road. Some pitchers have serious home/road splits. Tonight we have a 9-game slate that locks at 7:05.

I’ll also include my rankings for both cash and GPP contests at the end of every article.  Here are today’s matchups with the visiting pitcher listed first and the home pitcher listed second, Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis.

Noah Syndergaard vs. Aaron Nola (-120)

Yu Darvish vs. Trevor Richards

Dakota Hudson vs. Freddy Peralta (-135)

Matt Shoemaker vs. Martin Perez (-125)

Trevor Cahill vs. Shelby Miller

Heath Fillmyer vs. Ervin Santan (-130)

Trevor Bauer (-125) vs. Yusei Kikuchi

Luis Castillo vs. Clayton Kershaw (-165)

Antonio Senzatela vs. Joey Lucchesi

MLB DFS Pitching: Cash Game Aces

Trevor Bauer (11.2k FD, 10.4k DK) @ Seattle

Bauer is my favorite ace on the slate and the guy I’m paying for tomorrow in cash games. He’s got a tough matchup against the Mariners, but he also has been the most effective of the aces on this slate so far this season. He allowed only one hit in his first 14 innings this season before surrendering 10 hits in his last outing against the Tigers. He did battle some control issues with 6 walks in his second start, but his control has been great in his other two starts.

His fastball-slider-changeup combo of pitches can keep hitters from both sides of the plate off-balance and despite the Mariners power, we saw them strike out 11 times against another elite arm Justin Verlander just a few days ago.

Both Aaron Nola and Noah Syndergaard have tough matchups as they face off against each other, while Clayton Kershaw is making his debut against the Reds and we have no idea how many pitches he will be allowed to throw. Bauer is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he offers a higher floor than the rest of these guys because we know the Indians will allow him to pitch as deep into the game as he possibly can and he’s got the kind of stuff to shut down any lineup if he’s hitting his spots.

MLB DFS Pitching: GPP Options

Luis Castillo (8.8k FD, 9.5k DK) @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Castillo has been simply awesome this season so far through his first three starts. He’s racked up 25 strikeouts in 19 innings while allowing only 2 earned runs. We waited all last year for a Castillo breakout after he showed some serious strikeout potential in 2017, and perhaps he has now arrived after all. Tonight will be his toughest test yet, as he is facing a talented Dodgers lineup with some really good left-handed hitters.

Castillo’s biggest issue in the past has been control, but he’s only walked 8 hitters so far this season and allowed 5 hits. If he can keep guys off the basepaths, then he’s got the potential to become an ace even if he does get touched up for the occasional home run. He has to face off against Clayton Kershaw here in his season debut, but I still like Castillo’s upside in what could be an excellent pitchers’ duel.

Joey Lucchesi (8.2k FD, 9k DK) vs. Colorado

Lucchesi got hit pretty hard in his last start against the Padres, giving up 7 earned over 4 innings. I’m willing to give him a free pass on that start, considering how good he looked in his prior two outings and I’m interested in a matchup here with a Rockies team that has struggled out of the gate.

The Rockies are a team we target with pitchers when they are away from Coors, and Lucchesi gets to face them at home tonight. Their top right-handed power bats, Arenado and Story have not been their usual selves and right now this Rockies offense isn’t scaring anyone. Lucchesi has some nice upside tonight and as his price indicates, he’s a better value on FanDuel.

MLB DFS Pitching: Cheap Arms and SP2s

Matt Shoemaker (8.3k FD, 8k DK) @ Minnesota

Shoemaker has been outstanding so far this season with an ERA and WHIP both under 1 through his first three starts. He didn’t turn into Pedro Martinez at age 32, but he does look healthy for the first time in several years and is pitching with confidence.

His numbers scream regression as his XFIP is in the mid 3s, BABIP of .159, and LOB% of 91% suggests he’s been getting lucky and getting out of some jams. However, his strikeout rate (27%) is still very solid and he’s not hurting himself with walks either. An improve ground ball rate this season is helping keep balls in the park, too. The matchup today is tough as the Twins have a solid lineup, but it’s going to be another cold day in Minnesota and I think Shoe can pitch well enough to get the win tonight as long as he gets some run support from his offense.

Trevor Richards (7.3k FD, 8.2k DK) vs. Chicago Cubs

Richards is my favorite GPP play on the slate and his price is really attractive, especially on DraftKings. Richards is a talented young pitcher who’s thrown three quality starts in each of his first three outings. He faces a good team today in the Cubs, but has the benefit of pitching at home in a pitchers’ park.

Richards biggest issue is control, and he has walked 10 hitters in 18 innings this season, but his ability to miss bats is really appealing here and I think his ownership will be low as many will be afraid to take him against the Cubs.

Also Consider: Trevor Cahill @ Texas

MLB DFS Pitching: Rankings and Review

Here’s where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Bauer-Richards which is going to make it really important to find some value bats today.

My favorite GPP pairing is likely going to be Castillo-Shoemaker with the strikeout upside that both of these underdogs that are off to hot starts have to offer.

Cash Rankings

1. Bauer
2. Richards
3. Lucchesi
4. Shoemaker
5. Cahill

GPP Rankings

1. Castillo
2. Shoemaker
3. Richards
4. Bauer
5. Lucchesi

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck in your contests today!